Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

With the United States reaching trade agreements with multiple Southeast Asian countries, and the US-China economic and trade teams making substantial progress during the fifth round of face-to-face consultations held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25 to 26, market risk appetite has significantly rebounded. Both sides reached a basic consensus on key issues such as maritime logistics 301 measures, tariff suspensions, and agricultural trade. The US side even stated that it is "no longer considering" imposing a 100% tariff on China, greatly boosting market sentiment. As a result, Asian stock markets experienced a strong rebound, with the Nikkei 225 index breaking 50,000 points for the first time in history, and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index also surpassing 4,000 points for the first time. However, North American trade relations have once again become turbulent, as Trump announced a 10% additional tariff on Canada in response to a critical advertisement from Ontario, further straining the largest bilateral trade relationship in the world. The US Supreme Court is set to debate the legality of presidential tariff powers on November 5, adding further policy uncertainty.

Last week, the gold market experienced extreme volatility, hitting a historic high of around $4,380 per ounce before recording the largest single-day drop since 2013. However, retail investors' enthusiasm for buying on dips remains high. Institutions like UBS and JPMorgan generally believe that despite a short-term correction, the long-term bullish foundation for gold remains solid due to the global central bank gold-buying spree, concerns over sovereign debt, and potential geopolitical risks. UBS maintains its year-end target of $4,200 and anticipates a rise to $4,700 if risks escalate. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction has become the focus this week, with the market predicting a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the meeting on October 29.

Driven by macroeconomic positives, Bitcoin market sentiment has warmed up, currently surpassing $115,500. Analyst Murphy pointed out that as of October 26, Bitcoin's price has returned above the short-term holder average cost (STH-RP) of $113,200, strongly refuting the argument that the bull market has ended, proving that the market is in a macro-driven "new cycle." He believes that the current price hovering around the STH-RP reflects market divergence, and the height of the subsequent rebound will determine the stage of market sentiment. Traders are closely monitoring key price levels, with ElonTrades suggesting that if the Fed's rate cut meets expectations and the price breaks above $116,000, it could rise to $120,000; Man of Bitcoin emphasizes that $111,200 is a key support level, and as long as the price remains above this support, the current bullish expectation remains valid; while Astronomer plans to take profits on some long positions around $118,000 and is wary of potential pullbacks from CME gaps. Looking long-term, analyst Ash Crypto is extremely optimistic, predicting that in the next 4-6 months, with an explosion in M2 money supply, the Fed initiating quantitative easing, multiple rate cuts, and the approval of 155 altcoin ETFs, the market will experience a parabolic rise.

Ethereum also shows strong technical and on-chain signals. Analyst Scient noted that historically, the "October Moon" cycle in October often serves as a macro bottom or a breakout point for local downtrends in Ethereum, and he recommends buying on dips in October and November. On-chain dynamics have drawn attention to a "smart money" address that boldly went long after the flash crash on October 11, which plans to gradually take profits on its 15,689.44 ETH long positions in the range of $4,190 to $4,914.9, and is preparing to short after the price breaks above $4,914.9 (close to the historical high). Additionally, a large transfer record has caught the market's attention, as HEX and PulseChain founder Richard Heart transferred a total of 30,066 ETH (approximately $125 million) to a new wallet, most of which was completed through the privacy protocol TornadoCash, raising market speculation about the motive.

Meanwhile, privacy protocols and x402 related tokens continue to rise, with privacy-related project Zcash (ZEC) performing notably well, with BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes even calling for a target price of $10,000, as its market cap has surpassed $5 billion; PIVX rose 80% within 24 hours, while DASH and ZEN recorded increases of 23% and 22%, respectively. Another major hotspot is the AI payment protocol x402 based on the HTTP 402 status code, which has been gaining traction since Coinbase launched the open-source protocol on May 7, and Google released the AP2 protocol supporting this standard on September 16. The excitement was ignited by the Base ecosystem meme coin PING launched on October 22, which saw its market cap exceed $80 million at one point, currently dropping to around $30 million. Since October 22, the AI payment concept project PAYAI on the Solana chain has skyrocketed from $4 million to $60 million, an increase of nearly 15 times. The total market cap of the entire x402 ecosystem tokens also surged 366% within 24 hours, surpassing $800 million.

2. Key Data (as of October 27, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, CoinMarketCap, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $115,600 (YTD +23.55%), daily spot trading volume $52.16 billion

• Ethereum: $4,238 (YTD +27.3%), daily spot trading volume $32.75 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 42 (Neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.1 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.9%, ETH 13.1%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ETH, XRP, BTC, F, VIRTUAL

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 51.11%/48.89%

• Sector performance: The market saw a general rise, with the DeFi sector up 5.92% and the L2 sector up 5.4%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 111,376 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $451 million, including $175 million in BTC, $124 million in ETH, and $31.13 million in SOL

• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($112,516.03), lower line ($110,287.99)

• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($4,057.49), lower line ($3,977.14)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of October 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$90.605 million, with no net outflows from twelve ETFs

• Ethereum ETF: -$93.5957 million, with net outflows for three consecutive days

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch XNAP, COMMON, and 42 airdrop on October 27

• Hong Kong's first Solana spot ETF will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 27

• MegaETH will launch the public sale of MEGA tokens on October 27, with an initial FDV of $1 million

• Binance Alpha will launch Piggycell (PIGGY) on October 28

• Grass (GRASS) will unlock approximately 181 million tokens at 9:30 PM on October 28, accounting for 72.4% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $79.3 million;

• Jupiter (JUP) will unlock approximately 53.47 million tokens at 10:00 PM on October 28, accounting for 1.72% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $23 million;

• Sign (SIGN) will unlock approximately 290 million tokens at 6:00 PM on October 28, accounting for 21.48% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $12.1 million.

The largest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Virtuals Protocol up 26.1%, Zcash up 22.8%, Dash up 21.4%, Pi Network up 21.3%, Ethena up 13.1%.

5. Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as SUI, GRASS, and EIGEN will see significant unlocks, with SUI unlocking valued at approximately $113 million

• This Week's Macro Outlook: The Federal Reserve arrives with "handcuffs," and gold faces a major test

• This Week's Preview | The Federal Reserve to announce interest rate decision; Mt. Gox repayment deadline until October 31

• Helius Labs CEO: A new independent core team is being formed for Zcash, focusing on scalability and security

• Padre: PADRE holders will receive PUMP based on their holdings, wallet addresses must be submitted by December 30

• Data: Bitcoin's illiquid supply has decreased, with approximately 62,000 BTC flowing out of long-term holder wallets

• Nubila announces support for the x402 payment protocol, ushering in a new era of AI autonomous payments

• Pump.fun's cumulative repurchase of PUMP tokens has surpassed $150 million

• A certain whale increased its BTC long position to $297 million six hours ago, currently with a floating profit of $3 million

• State Council report on financial work: Implement a moderately loose monetary policy in detail

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