An overview of recent catalysts that may affect the price of $HYPE

DAT, TGE, Unlocking, Buyback, ETF, Revenue Growth, Protocol Upgrade.

Compiled by: ShenChao TechFlow

As of late October 2025, Hyperliquid's native token $HYPE is at a critical moment of dynamic development, with Hyperliquid expected to achieve significant advancements. As a leader in decentralized perpetual contract exchanges, Hyperliquid has captured a substantial share of DEX derivatives trading volume, accounting for approximately 70-80%, and has generated over $1 billion in revenue to date. With the ongoing expansion of the ecosystem and the one-way buyback mechanism, several catalysts may drive the price of $HYPE higher in the coming months. The following discusses these key events based on recent analysis and market insights, extending from now into 2026.

November DAT Release

One of the most direct catalysts is the anticipated launch of the third DAT in November 2025. This event is expected to raise hundreds of millions of dollars for the purchase and staking of $HYPE. Specifically, this includes a $305 million time-weighted average price (TWAP) buy from Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. after the final close, along with ongoing purchases averaging $100 million per month from the assistance fund, thanks to strong revenue trends. In total, approximately $405 million of $HYPE could be removed from circulation just in November.

HyperEVM TGE Season

Based on the progress of Hyperliquid's Layer-1 technology, the token generation event (TGE) on HyperEVM is accelerating, with multiple projects set to launch. Notable projects include: @kinetiqxyz, @hyperlendx, @felixprotocol, @HypurrFi, @driptrade, and @prjxhl. As these TGEs unfold, users may reinvest some of the airdropped tokens into $HYPE, thereby enhancing liquidity and demand within the ecosystem. This change will extend into the end of Q4 2025 and beyond, marking Hyperliquid's transformation into a comprehensive DeFi hub similar to Solana and Ethereum.

Suppressed Price Performance

Recently, @Techno_Revenant pointed out that significant sell-offs have notably suppressed the price of $HYPE, as mentioned by @mlmabc in his post: once the selling pressure from this entity diminishes, combined with ongoing TWAP purchases and overall demand at the current price level, we expect a significant improvement in price performance in the short term.

Token Unlocking and Supply Dynamics

Starting from November 29, 2025, a total of 237.8 million $HYPE tokens (valued at approximately $11.9 billion at current prices) will begin to unlock over the next 24 months, which will create substantial supply pressure, raising concerns among investors and analysts. Analysts, including Maelstrom, view this as the "first real test" for the token, worrying that the unlocking quotas may trigger sell-offs, dilute the market, and exert downward pressure on prices amid broader macro uncertainties. However, if the team decides to continue holding these unlocked tokens, or better yet, stake them, the entire oversupply situation may seem to vanish instantly.

Assistance Fund and Buyback

The assistance fund continues to play a crucial role, having raised over $1 billion in funds for $HYPE so far. We can only assume that even without utilizing the points program, platform revenue will continue to rise compared to other perpetual contract DEX competitors. At this rate, the assistance fund could buy back the entire supply of $HYPE in less than 10 years.

Understanding Hyperliquid's SWPE

As of mid-October 2025, the supply-weighted price-to-earnings (SWPE) ratio of Hyperliquid's $HYPE token has fallen to around 2.25-2.50, marking the lowest point this year, indicating that its value may be undervalued relative to the protocol's strong earnings. SWPE is an important metric in crypto analysis for tokens like $HYPE, adjusting traditional price-to-earnings ratios based on the effective supply or circulation (the circulating tokens available for trading, excluding locked or staked amounts). Essentially, SWPE measures the "cheapness" of a token by dividing the market cap adjusted for circulation by the protocol's annualized revenue. A lower SWPE value indicates that the token price has failed to keep pace with earnings growth, making it an attractive entry point for value-oriented investors. Thanks to @skewga_hyper for the information.

ETF and Index Inclusion

$HYPE is preparing for ETF launches and inclusion in new S&P cryptocurrency index funds, which will be attractive to traditional value/growth investors. The ARKK fund led by Cathie Wood may invest through DAT to gain relevant exposure.

Summary

In summary, $HYPE is at a critical juncture, with Hyperliquid continuing to dominate the decentralized perpetual contract space thanks to impressive revenue performance and innovative expansions like HIP-3 and USDH. Although the upcoming token unlocks pose significant risks and may trigger cautious sentiment among investors, the strong buyback mechanism and the potential to re-lock unlocked tokens may turn these challenges into opportunities for sustained growth and confidence. Coupled with the prospects of ETFs and DAT, growing revenue, and long-term protocol upgrades, the trajectory of $HYPE suggests that substantial returns may be on the horizon for investors who can wisely navigate volatility. As always, investors should closely monitor execution and market dynamics. This article does not constitute any investment advice.

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