Author: Liu Ye Jing Hong
On August 1 of this year, Hong Kong officially implemented the "Stablecoin Regulation." According to publicly available data, as of September 30, 36 institutions have submitted applications, and the market expects the first batch of license lists to be announced in the first quarter of next year.
However, yesterday the Financial Times cited sources saying that several mainland companies, including Ant Group and JD.com, have suspended their stablecoin plans after receiving instructions from regulatory bodies such as the People's Bank of China and the National Internet Information Office to "not proceed." This development reflects the regulatory concerns regarding the development of stablecoin businesses by private enterprises.
After the news broke, some friends asked for my opinion, worried that Hong Kong's stablecoin policy might be hindered as a result. Coincidentally, I have been closely following the relevant policy dynamics in Hong Kong recently and am quite interested in this matter, so I delved into the background of the event and would like to provide some analysis to reassure everyone.
Hong Kong's Stablecoin Policy is Expected to Remain Unaffected
The full report cited warnings from central bank officials: the issuance of any form of "currency" by tech companies or brokerages could undermine the central bank's monetary sovereignty, and privately issued stablecoins would be seen as a challenge to the central bank's digital renminbi (e-CNY) project.
The key point is clear—these halted stablecoin projects are all aimed at issuing stablecoins pegged to the renminbi or offshore renminbi, which conflicts with the People's Bank of China's long-term strategy for the digital renminbi. The digital renminbi pilot has been in place for several years, and I have registered to use it, but the current supported scenarios are still limited.
The recent regulatory actions by the People's Bank of China are essentially due to the high overlap in business scenarios between renminbi-based (both onshore and offshore) stablecoins and the digital renminbi—both are primarily aimed at replacing cash (M0) for cross-border business settlements. In other words, the regulation has only blocked the development path of CNY stablecoins in Hong Kong, without affecting the applications for other types of stablecoins.
What Types of Stablecoins are More Likely to be Approved in Hong Kong?
This needs to be understood in conjunction with the article I previously wrote about Hong Kong RWA.
Currently, the application prospects for stablecoins backed by the US dollar, bonds, and funds are the most optimistic. Particularly for interest-bearing asset categories, such as US Treasury bonds and US dollar money market funds, the approval rate is expected to be higher compared to other currency assets.
This judgment is based on the issuance mechanism of the Hong Kong dollar. There are currently three note-issuing banks in Hong Kong—HSBC, Standard Chartered, and Bank of China (Hong Kong). When these banks issue Hong Kong dollar banknotes, they must pay an equivalent amount in US dollars to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority at a fixed exchange rate and can only print banknotes after obtaining a "liability certificate." This means that each Hong Kong dollar banknote is backed by 100% US dollar reserves.
Hong Kong has a natural high acceptance of US dollar assets, and the related pathways are mature and well-validated. I expect that the approval rate for such stablecoins will be higher and may receive approval sooner.
Hong Kong's Financial System May Move Towards a Dual-Track System
From a historical perspective, Hong Kong's mechanism of issuing the Hong Kong dollar based on the US dollar stems from its positioning as an international financial center, where outward-oriented trade and financial transactions are often denominated and settled in US dollars. However, by 2025, as financial trade frictions between China and the US intensify, the People's Bank of China's recent halt on renminbi stablecoin issuance may contain deeper strategic considerations.
In my personal judgment, the greater value of the digital renminbi lies in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, and Hong Kong is likely to become an important promotional window. In the future, the issuance mechanism of the Hong Kong dollar may present a new pattern resembling a "dual-track system"—while maintaining the existing 100% US dollar reserves, it may gradually increase the proportion of assets like the digital renminbi, forming a more diversified reserve structure.
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