Stablecoins
In my view, the main narrative for the next three to five years is likely to be "adoption," and the only crypto applications that can quickly reach the level of "adoption" are stablecoins. Top applications like Hyperliquid and Pump.fun are still limited to the native adoption within Crypto itself. To truly achieve widespread adoption, there is still a long way to go.
In summary, stablecoins will be the core metagame of the Crypto market in the future.
Breaking it down, the hype around the stablecoin narrative boils down to two points: 1) saving money; 2) speculation on the token prices of stablecoin infrastructure.
1) Saving Money
Saving money is low-risk and offers considerable returns, making it very popular in the market. Recent examples like Spark, Plasma, and Zerobase are representative, with pre-TGE saving activities offering very high APY.
The underlying logic is: 1) project teams need to boost TVL data and collaborate with exchanges to elevate token valuations before TGE, allowing them to exit afterward; 2) or project teams need to use economic incentives (usually tokens) to drive the circulation of their stablecoins, ultimately aiming to promote stablecoin adoption.
I recommend pursuing saving as a direction, but as the market develops, subsequent stablecoin deposits will likely become increasingly competitive, with diminishing returns. It’s best to save with projects that have partnerships with major exchanges.
2) Speculation on the Token Prices of Stablecoin Infrastructure
In my opinion, participating in the speculation of these token prices carries extremely high risks and currently does not belong to a positive expected value (EV) phase. The main reason is still what I mentioned in the first article: "The emergence of speculation is driven by demand (even if that demand is merely pseudo-demand or unsustainable demand) or Ponzi (high returns and high capital efficiency, stemming from greed)" & "Demand and Ponzi interact with each other and are limited by cycles."
Currently, the speculation on tokens in this sector is still concentrated in the phase backed by backgrounds, investment institutions, and exchanges, meaning saving is the optimal solution rather than purchasing tokens. It’s better to consider token speculation when demand arises or Ponzi schemes emerge.
Super Applications and Buybacks
Super applications involve just the two applications mentioned above, Hyperliquid and Pump.fun. The core of speculating on these super applications is "buybacks."
Super applications mean they have achieved a very good PMF (Product-market fit), which indicates that these super applications can capture continuous cash flow from transaction fees in the medium to long term.
Using product fees for "buybacks" can provide sufficient buying liquidity during the product's growth phase, driving up its token price. An increase in token price serves as the best advertisement for the product. This is essentially an invisible flywheel.
Additionally, buybacks can balance the different positions represented by token holders and product users, binding product users to the token, increasing the stickiness of token holders, reducing speculative behavior, and increasing investment behavior.
Another point worth mentioning is that Pump.fun is transitioning from a Launchpad and DEX narrative to a live streaming narrative. I believe @TimDraper is a signal for the trend reversal of $PUMP (and alon has also started working on ICM). If the crypto market enters a recovery phase in the near future, the price performance of $PUMP is worth looking forward to.
As for $HYPE, I think it still needs to wait for the unlocking event to pass, but I am optimistic in the long term.
ICO & ICM
At this stage, there is essentially not much difference between ICO and ICM.
An ICO is a straightforward way to raise funds, while ICM (Internet Capital Market) tells a larger story to package the act of "raising funds."
Why do we need a bigger story? Because a grand and appealing story can attract more participants and create a larger bubble. This is the story Solana currently wants to tell. This is also being done in conjunction with the launch of the $SOL ETF—there must be a reason for Tradefi to buy $SOL, right?
Under the ICM narrative, I am not very optimistic about Launchcoin; it remains stagnant. @MetaDAOProject is somewhat better, as it interacts sufficiently with Solana's official team, has a good background, and the market is willing to pay for the projects it produces (mainly because they can make money). Another reason for optimism is that $META has not yet been listed on CEX.
Overall, the Solana ecosystem is in a recovery phase, and the foundation has laid out its strategies; it is nearing a critical moment for action. This moment will likely be around the time of the ETF launch.
The short-term forecast is as follows (as long as there are no major surprises in the market in the short term), while the medium to long-term development will depend on the overall market trend.
Prediction Markets and Robot Narratives (Transmission of Web2 Narratives)
Prediction markets and robots are not native narratives of the crypto market; the market is merely following the narrative development of the Web2 world for speculation. I won’t elaborate too much here, as many have already hyped up the narratives of prediction markets and robots. Personally, I am optimistic about prediction markets but not about the long-term speculation of this narrative. As for the robot narrative, I find it rather average.
The speculation around prediction markets is still primarily driven by VCs, and it is unlikely to see any highly Ponzi-like plays, so I think the market may get excited for a while and then move on. Projects like Limitless and BSC prediction markets can be participated in, but they are not suitable for long-term strategies. The speculation around prediction markets may concentrate in Q4. When Polymarket issues tokens/IPO, there will be another wave of speculation.
Crypto is inherently good at asset speculation rather than creating robots. The robot narrative can be approached in two ways: 1) providing training assistance (data, computing power) for Web2 robot companies, such as $SAPIEN @gaibai; 2) providing software services for robots, such as @openmindagi. These two types can be discussed a bit, looking for opportunities during TGE.
The speculation transmitted from Web2 narratives generally has a short lifespan (referring to the overall sector's explosion), and once the excitement passes, it’s over (a month?). The native Ponzi/asset issuance narratives in crypto can last much longer.
The fact that narratives like prediction markets and robots can be repeatedly discussed and favored by Crypto Twitter also indicates that after $TRUMP, the crypto market has yet to see a well-formed, highly speculative new narrative. The market is extremely eager for new narratives and new asset speculation.
Artificial Narratives
Artificial narratives are similar to BSC meme speculation, which has a high wealth effect but carries significant uncertainty and risk, with very fast market dynamics, making it very suitable for small players to enter and perform. I personally prefer those that are unrelated to specific individuals and embody the spirit of the internet, like Hakimi. The first to speculate will definitely be memecoins related to specific individuals, as market attention is sufficiently concentrated. However, as time goes on, market attention will gradually become weary of these specific individual-related memecoins, shifting towards memes with a broader audience.
I actually think Perp DEX can also be considered a semi-artificial narrative. In my observation, the timing of FOMO for Lighter and other Perp DEXs is close to the timing of Aster's rise. Since the inception of Hyperliquid, Perp DEXs have gradually begun to receive attention, Aster has risen, and then many have emerged, with the final outcome likely being the dismissal of many in favor of a singular dominant force. Speculation is speculation; do not have faith in some knockoff Perp DEXs. Personally, I believe Hyperliquid has the opportunity to become the final winner.
The development of artificial narratives tests "people." If the people are outstanding, the narrative will be outstanding, as seen with BSC. The rise of $ZEC also relies on @naval's statement: "Bitcoin is insurance against fiat. ZCash is insurance against Bitcoin" (and the backing of CX, BTC Maxis are also willing to buy). For such narratives, you need to be early enough and have sufficient PVP to have a chance to gain considerable returns.
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