BNB’s long-standing uptrend could be under threat from a growing divergence in its market data and recent community backlash over technical issues during the recent Black Friday crash.
Beneath the surface, perpetual data tells a more complex story for BNB.
The aggregated spot cumulative volume delta—a measure of net buying and selling pressure for—has climbed from $2.34 billion in February to $3.3 billion, per CoinGlass data. Conversely, the aggregated futures CVD has dropped further into negative territory, from -$41 billion to -$45.8 billion over the same period.
The divergence is not bearish and represents hedging flows, DarkFrost, a pseudonymous verified analyst at CryptoQuant, told Decrypt.
“Seeing Spot CVD rising while Futures CVD keeps dropping sharply means investors are betting on the longer term, which further strengthens BNB’s trend and fundamentals,” DarkFrost added.
It could also reflect a “market-wide shift toward spot holdings,” especially considering the recent historic liquidation event across the crypto market, the analyst explained.
While the long-term outlook is bullish, a closer look at the CVD behavior over the last two weeks shows a more nuanced outlook.
A decline in CVD indicates selling, but combining it with open interest—the total number of long and short open positions—provides a comprehensive view of the market participants’ positioning.
If CVD and open interest decline together, it suggests short covering. An uptick in CVD and open interest, on the contrary, would be a bullish signal, indicating an increase in long positions.
Currently, the open interest for BNB has declined 36% in the last week to 555,000 BNB, while both perpetual and spot CVDs are falling, indicating active selling or profit-taking.
Binance and BNB
Binance and some of its products have faced headwinds in recent days due to recent oracle mispricing incidents and the temporary depegging of wrapped assets, including USDe, a synthetic dollar issued by Ethena; BNSOL, a Solana liquid staking derivative listed by Binance; and wBETH, Binance’s wrapped version of staked Ether.
“The recent oracle errors and short-term ‘depegs’... caused a quick drop in confidence,” Alexandr Kerya, VP of Product Management at CEX.IO, told Decrypt. “Any technical issue within a major ecosystem naturally puts short-term pressure on its native token.”
Kerya noted that while user confidence and trust were affected, “the selling pressure appears limited, with the broader crypto market sell-off playing a larger role in the asset’s recent decline.”
BNB has also been boosted by the news that Coinbase this week added BNB to its listing roadmap, signaling support for the cryptocurrency issued by its rival exchange.
The combination of complex derivative positioning and simmering community sentiment suggests that while BNB's bull run remains fundamentally intact, it may undergo pullback or corrective moves in the short term.
BNB is down 0.7% over the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $1,181, CoinGecko data shows.
In the end, the token's ability to maintain its momentum could depend on Bitcoin’s recovery, which in turn is contingent on improved macroeconomic conditions and the return of institutional demand.
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