Key Points:
Wall Street's year-end prediction for Bitcoin ranges between $133,000 and $200,000.
Most analysts believe that the ongoing inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds and its correlation with gold may drive Bitcoin to new highs.
Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded over 13% in the past seven days, gradually approaching its historical high of $124,500.
According to predictions from Wall Street and top financial institutions in the UK, Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs by the end of 2025.
Citigroup expects Bitcoin to reach a new high of around $133,000 by the end of 2025. Based on the current price of approximately $122,350, this implies an upside potential of only about 8.75%.
The bank's baseline scenario anticipates robust growth for Bitcoin, primarily supported by inflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset treasury allocations, which Citigroup believes are key structural factors driving the next wave of Bitcoin's rise.
As of Saturday, the total amount of Bitcoin managed by all U.S. Bitcoin ETFs exceeds $163.5 billion. Citigroup expects that by the end of the year, new ETF inflows will be around $7.5 billion, thereby continuously supporting market demand.
However, Citigroup's pessimistic scenario indicates that if recessionary pressures intensify and risk sentiment weakens, Bitcoin could fall to $83,000.
JPMorgan's strategy team, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold after adjusting for volatility.
In their latest report released on Wednesday, they stated that the volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold has dropped below 2, indicating that Bitcoin is currently absorbing risk capital at about 1.85 times that of gold.
Based on this ratio, Bitcoin's current market capitalization of approximately $2.3 trillion would need to grow by about 42%, meaning that theoretically, Bitcoin's price would need to reach around $165,000 to match the approximately $6 trillion of private gold held through ETFs, bullion, and coins.
Gold is typically viewed as Bitcoin's traditional macro benchmark asset and has risen about 48% this year, poised for its best annual performance since 1979.
However, gold's annual relative strength index (RSI) has climbed close to 89, marking the highest overbought level since 2012.
Historically, this level often signals a deep multi-year correction of 40%–60%. Therefore, gold's upward trend may face a slowdown in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown about an 8-week lagged correlation with gold in recent years, further supporting JPMorgan's view that if funds shift from the precious metals market, Bitcoin could see a surge before the end of the year.
JPMorgan's optimistic forecast also assumes that spot ETFs will maintain stable inflows during the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate-cutting cycle in the coming months.
Among major banks, Standard Chartered is the most optimistic, predicting that Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 by December.
Similar to Citigroup and JPMorgan, the bank's analysts view the ongoing ETF inflows—averaging over $500 million per week—as a key factor driving Bitcoin's total market capitalization close to $4 trillion.
Analysts point out that increased institutional adoption, a weaker dollar, and improved global liquidity conditions could create the conditions for Bitcoin to experience a parabolic rise similar to the bull market of 2020–2021.
Standard Chartered analysts view the $200,000 scenario as a "structural upward trend" rather than a short-term speculative rally.
Asset management firm VanEck predicts that Bitcoin could reach around $180,000 by 2025, citing the momentum of the post-halving cycle.
The firm believes that the halving in April 2024 has laid the groundwork for supply tightening, while ETF demand and digital asset treasury allocations provide structural momentum for the next upward trend.
As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin's performance since the halving closely resembles previous four-year cycles.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically reaches cycle peaks 365 to 550 days after a halving. As of Saturday, it has been 533 days since the last halving, placing it well within the historical window for significant price increases.
Saad Ahmed, head of Gemini's Asia-Pacific region, stated in an interview with Cointelegraph that Bitcoin's cycle may extend beyond this range. He noted that Bitcoin's four-year rhythm is "more driven by human emotions than pure mathematics" and is "likely to continue in some form into 2026."
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct thorough research before making decisions.
Related: Bitcoin ETF Fuels "Rallying October," Weekly Inflows Reach $3.2 Billion, Second Highest
Original article: “JPMorgan and Citigroup Predict Bitcoin (BTC) Will Experience a Surge in Q4: Latest Price Targets Released”
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