Key Points:
Although Solana network activity and transaction fees have declined, expectations for a spot ETF continue to attract investor interest in SOL.
The sustainability of validator income and the risk of staking inflation exist, but institutional capital inflows are expected to drive SOL higher.
The native token of Solana, SOL, rebounded around $191 on Friday, subsequently rising by 10.5%. However, the token has still fallen by 10% over the past two weeks, underperforming competitors like Ethereum and BNB. Traders are assessing the possibility of SOL returning to $250 and analyzing the reasons for its relatively weak performance.
Over the weekend, U.S. President Trump stated that he would avoid shutting down non-essential federal agencies, improving investor sentiment in the market. However, Congress has yet to secure the 60 votes needed to pass a temporary funding bill, which Yahoo Finance points out could lead to "unpredictable and immediate economic impacts."
Meanwhile, gold reached a historic high of $3,833 on Monday, reflecting ongoing market concerns about the U.S. fiscal debt outlook. Even if lawmakers reach a short-term agreement, the Treasury still needs to pay over $1 trillion in interest each year. The gap between government revenue and spending continues to widen, prompting savers to turn to scarce assets, including cryptocurrencies.
While the overall cryptocurrency market rose on Monday, SOL failed to hold the $212 level. Some investors are dissatisfied due to the continued decline in Solana network activity.
According to data from Nansen, the number of Solana transactions decreased by 10% over the past week, and transaction fees dropped by nearly 50%. In contrast, BNB Chain transaction fees increased by 56%, and the fee revenue for Arbitrum and HyperEVM doubled compared to the previous week.
The rapid expansion of synthetic perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid, Aster, and edgeX has also affected market sentiment for SOL. Solana had previously led the decentralized exchange space through platforms like Meteora, Raydium, and Pump, leading many SOL holders to overestimate the network's competitive advantages in transaction fees and user experience.
Hyperliquid has chosen to launch its own chain to reduce transaction fees and eliminate maximum extractable value (MEV) for validators. Aster, supported by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs), has currently integrated with BNB Chain and plans to launch its own Layer 1 network.
For bullish investors in SOL, the strongest rebound catalyst is the anticipated approval of a spot ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The regulatory body faces a final deadline of October 10, and analysts expect a 95% or higher probability of approval, leading the market to anticipate significant capital inflows in the first month.
The performance of SOL also depends on investors' views on its native staking rewards. Critics warn of inflation risks in Solana, which has nearly 1,000 validators and high setup and operational costs.
According to analysis by X user "Boxmining," 76% of Solana network validator income comes from newly issued tokens. In contrast, MEV or priority fees contribute less. This analysis raises questions about the sustainability of staking reward rates in the coming years, which could affect market demand for Solana ETFs.
Traders should not infer that prices will fall solely due to weakened on-chain activity; corporate reserves of SOL and the potential approval of a spot ETF may drive SOL up to $250.
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Original article: “Solana (SOL) Price Recovers, New Highs Depend on Multiple Factors”
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