First, let me clarify a point that I did not express clearly in last Friday's article:
In the article, I compared the actions of two elderly gentlemen selling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the sale of BYD. This does not mean that I am 100% certain that BYD will face risks similar to those of the two "Fannies," but I am confident that certain business practices of BYD carry significant risks, making its future total cash flow discount far from supporting its current stock price.
More importantly, my judgment and analysis were ultimately validated by the elderly gentlemen.
Seeing this result, I felt quite encouraged. Because through the case of a stock, I personally experienced the analytical methods and problem-solving approaches discussed in the book.
Previously, I never thought I would attempt to analyze A-shares, as I always felt it was a fantasy for me. First, I couldn't understand the financial reports; second, even if I understood the reports, I wouldn't be able to discern the numerous potential fraudulent practices as a novice.
However, in evaluating BYD, I did not analyze its financial reports in detail; I could sense something was off just from some basic events and clues.
This indirectly validated some points expressed by Duan Yongping in his investment Q&A, such as:
- Financial reports are important, but it does not mean one must fully understand them to invest.
- Often, common sense can analyze basic logic, reveal the truth, and help judge investment targets.
Recently, I experienced two more points shared by Duan Yongping through another stock:
- The business model is one of the key factors to consider when investing in a company.
- Not doing something is often more important than doing something.
Last year or even earlier, I saw a news clip of Trump charging his phone with a power bank. A commentator bluntly pointed out that the power bank (Anker) Trump used was made in China.
This commentator's challenge to Trump gave me my first impression of Anker, a Chinese company, and later I learned that it is known as Anker Innovations in China.
After that, I did not pay much attention to Anker.
Until recently, I listened to a tech blogger who spent two hours reviewing Anker, which brought back my previous impression of the company.
In the two-hour review, two points about Anker left a very deep impression on me:
First, when it first entered Amazon, many Chinese companies making similar products used improper means to buy good reviews, but Anker did not do this; it focused on improving its products. Although this put it at a disadvantage for a considerable time, it remained unfazed.
This sense of "doing the right thing" is a quality that Duan Yongping highly values when evaluating companies.
Second, Anker's founder places a strong emphasis on values.
This is a quality I highly value.
I believe that values are the most resilient pillar and the most invincible weapon for both individuals and teams. A company without values cannot go far or become strong.
After listening to the two-hour analysis, I also collected three well-known speeches by Anker's founder in recent years: "Speech at the 2024 Amazon Cross-Border Summit," "10th Anniversary Internal Speech," and "Gains and Losses of the Shallow Sea Strategy."
After reviewing this material, my impression of Anker was already very positive; it has a top-notch team.
Next, I looked at its stock price, market value, total assets, total liabilities, free cash flow, and shareholder returns since going public.
From these data, while the company's performance is not stunning, I believe it still has considerable potential and growth space in the long run.
Having understood this, according to my past habits, the next step would be to wait for the market to buy its stock. If I really bought Anker, it would be my first individual stock in the A-shares.
However, I paused and recalled the three core elements Duan Yongping emphasized for evaluating companies: business model, corporate culture, and moat.
Among these three, Anker has a good corporate culture; regarding the moat, according to the founder's own words, it is its organizational and operational methods. However, I hesitated about the business model.
Does it have pricing power for the products it produces?
Can this pricing power be sustained?
Can its products provide users with a unique experience and an ecosystem that is hard to match, like Apple?
…
After pondering these questions one by one, I found that at least for now, there are still many issues I cannot clarify or feel confident about.
Since that is the case, I will temporarily set this stock aside. It is better not to buy a target that I do not fully understand.
In the past year or two, especially after reading books by Buffett and Duan Yongping, I have been hoping to buy an A-share stock to practice my judgment skills.
During this process, I have repeatedly searched for many targets, but I always found that they had various issues or aspects I could not clarify, leading me to ultimately give up. To this day, I still have not bought a single A-share stock.
Anker is a rare alternative I discovered in the past few months, but now it has been temporarily set aside at the last moment.
Duan Yongping said that there are not many good stocks in the world, and there is no need to buy so many stocks. He also emphasized that understanding a company/stock takes about the same time as completing an undergraduate degree.
I am increasingly able to relate to this feeling.
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