Key Points:
Glassnode data shows that the profit-taking indicator for BTC has presented signals of a late-stage bull market cycle.
The inflow momentum for BTC has significantly weakened, and large-scale profit-taking has peaked since BTC reached $124,000, but analysis indicates that new historical highs may occur within the next two to three months.
New investors and short-term holders are actively accumulating BTC, effectively offsetting market selling pressure.
BTC has entered the "historical late-stage phase" of its market cycle, as noted by the professional analysis platform Glassnode, which points out that the current profit-taking indicators and capital flow patterns are strikingly similar to previous cycle tops.
Latest data analysis shows that the current BTC cycle exhibits a high degree of similarity to the market trends of 2015-2018 and 2018-2022. In these historical cycles, all-time highs (ATH) are typically achieved within two to three months after the current relative stage.
Glassnode emphasized in its report that the circulating supply of BTC has maintained above the +1 standard deviation profit range for 273 consecutive days, a duration only surpassed by the 335-day continuous record set during the 2015-2018 cycle. At the same time, the profit scale realized by long-term holders (LTH) has exceeded all historical cycles except for one, clearly indicating that market selling pressure is continuing to accumulate.
"These market signals further reinforce the view that the current cycle is firmly in the historical late-stage phase," Glassnode stated in its weekly market report, also noting that similar market conditions in past cycles typically herald new historical highs within a few months.
Since reaching the $124,000 peak, the BTC price has declined nearly 9%, accompanied by significantly weakened inflows. Data shows that BTC's market cap growth peaked in recent weeks at only 6% per month, compared to a growth rate of 13% when it surpassed $100,000 at the end of 2024.
The volume of profit-taking trades has also shown a significant decrease. Glassnode observed that the scale of realized profit-taking during the recent historical peak was far below the peak levels seen at $70,000, $100,000, and $122,000. Despite the market correction, realized losses remain at moderate levels, averaging about $112 million per day, well within the historical normal range during local corrections.
Despite the profit-taking pressure in the market, CryptoQuant data shows that demand is recovering. The data indicates that the youngest group of BTC holders (wallets less than a month old) has turned net positive, with their holdings surging by 73,702 coins in September.
Short-term holders (STHs) are also actively increasing their purchases, accumulating an additional 159,098 BTC. This new capital is absorbing the coins released by long-term holders (LTHs), a dynamic that is typically more common during sustained bull markets.
However, Santiment's on-chain analysts warn that one should not expect an immediate market rebound. Historical data suggests that retail traders eager to "buy the dip" often signal further declines, and the current scale of short positions is still insufficient to trigger a large-scale short squeeze.
Since the BTC price fell below $114,000, market sentiment has clearly turned negative, but analysts point out that the current level of panic has not yet reached a point of complete capitulation.
Meanwhile, large holders continue to accumulate, with data showing that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added over 56,000 coins since the end of August. Exchange balances have also decreased by over 31,000 coins in the past month, a trend that effectively reduces short-term selling pressure.
Related: Saylor states that Bitcoin (BTC) will "rise strongly again" by the end of 2025.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original: “Profit-Taking Metrics Spike, Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Cycle Enters 'Late Phase'”
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