Bitcoin spot accumulation is still ongoing; otherwise, the price of Bitcoin is likely to be far below current levels.
Written by: Matt Crosb
Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Despite continuous institutional accumulation, the price trend of Bitcoin remains unsatisfactory, with supply and demand dynamics indicating that long-term holders are taking profits.
In recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has left many investors puzzled. Despite significant accumulation by institutions and treasury companies, the price of Bitcoin has remained stagnant. Is this a deception of institutional accumulation, or are we merely witnessing a tug-of-war between supply and demand?
In-depth analysis of on-chain data, treasury holdings, and derivatives activity aims to distinguish fact from conspiracy and explain the real factors driving Bitcoin's price.
The Contradiction Between Institutional Accumulation and Bitcoin's Price Stagnation
In the past few months, ETFs and treasury companies are estimated to have cumulatively accumulated 200,000 BTC. Overall, the total treasury holdings are now approaching 1 million Bitcoins. However, despite this influx of funds, the price of Bitcoin fell back to $108,000 after briefly touching a historical high of over $120,000, and has since remained in a sideways consolidation.
Why hasn't this institutional demand been reflected in Bitcoin's price? The answer lies in the profit-taking by long-term holders. Since July, over 450,000 BTC have been transferred from long-term wallets to new short-term market participants. This distribution has effectively offset the bullish impact of institutional inflows on Bitcoin's price.
Long-Term Holders Are Taking Profits
On-chain data clearly shows that the group holding Bitcoin for four to ten years is selling. These investors accumulated Bitcoin at prices far below the current levels, and now, as Bitcoin prices reach historical highs, they are realizing profits.
This pattern is not new. Historically, long-term holders tend to reduce their positions when retail and institutional investors drive up Bitcoin prices, waiting to re-accumulate once the market cools down. Current data indicates that the selling pressure from this group is accelerating, exacerbating the sideways fluctuations in Bitcoin's price.
The Impact of Derivatives Factors
Another factor weighing on Bitcoin's price trend is the increase in futures and options activity. Since July, the open interest in derivatives across exchanges has increased by about 50,000 BTC. While this does not directly prove the existence of "leveraged Bitcoin," it does indicate that funds are flowing into leveraged bets rather than spot accumulation, thereby limiting upward pressure on Bitcoin's price.
The CME futures and options market has also significantly expanded, amplifying the impact of derivatives on short-term Bitcoin price movements. The net effect is that more liquidity is locked in contracts, reducing direct buying pressure on BTC itself.
The Role of Supply and Demand Dynamics
So, is Bitcoin's price being manipulated by leveraged Bitcoin? The evidence does not strongly support this conclusion. What we are witnessing is real-time supply and demand economics at play:
Institutions have cumulatively accumulated 200,000 BTC.
Long-term holders have distributed 450,000 BTC.
Over 50,000 BTC are locked in the derivatives market.
Taken together, this explains why, despite institutional demand making headlines, Bitcoin's price remains stagnant.
What’s Next for Bitcoin's Price?
Although the current situation suggests that it may continue to consolidate in the short term, it does not appear to be a market top. If the funding rate turns negative, a short squeeze could drive Bitcoin's price up again. However, for now, the imbalance between accumulation and distribution indicates that sideways movement may persist.
Looking at the bigger picture, the bull market for Bitcoin remains intact. Investors concerned about "leveraged Bitcoin" should remember: spot accumulation is still ongoing, and without it, Bitcoin's price is likely to be far below current levels.
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