【Price Trend Analysis】

1. K-line Pattern:

• The daily level shows that the recent price is oscillating at a high level, with two consecutive days of closing in the red, forming a short-term correction trend. There is significant selling pressure near the previous high of around 4494.

• On the 4-hour level, the price quickly dropped from 4415 to 4286, showing a significant pullback followed by low-level consolidation.

1. Technical Indicators:

   • MACD: The 4-hour MACD histogram continues to shrink, with the fast and slow lines below the zero axis, indicating weak momentum; the daily MACD death cross continues, with bears in control.

   • RSI: The 4-hour RSI value is 43, not yet in the oversold zone, but still in a weak area; the daily RSI is gradually declining, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

   • EMA: The current price is below EMA7 (4332) and EMA30 (4367), indicating strong short-term moving average pressure; EMA120 (4373) has also been effectively broken, with an overall bearish trend.

2. Trading Volume:

• The 4-hour trading volume has significantly increased, especially during the sharp drop at 20:00 on September 5, accompanied by a large amount of selling, indicating a clear outflow of funds.

• The daily trading volume has shrunk, indicating an increase in market wait-and-see sentiment, lacking further momentum.

Core Points for Trading Plan Evaluation

Operation Direction

Price Level (USDT)

Reason/Basis

Evaluation and Optimization Suggestions

Buy Point One

4200

Previous low area, psychological support at a round number.

Reasonable. This position is an important psychological and technical support, and can test with a small position (e.g., 30% of planned funds).

Buy Point Two

4125

Stronger support range, better cost-effectiveness.

Very reasonable. This is a better entry point in terms of risk-reward ratio, and can deploy main position (70% of planned funds).

Long Stop Loss

4075

Break below the 4100 level, trend turns bearish.

Critical and reasonable. Must be strictly enforced to avoid falling into deep losses.

Sell/Take Profit One

4350

EMA moving average pressure, previous rebound high point area.

Reasonable. This is an ideal position for bulls to reduce positions (e.g., 50%), locking in some profits.

Sell/Take Profit Two

4450

Testing previous important resistance level, selling pressure at a round number.

Reasonable. This is an ideal area for bulls to fully liquidate positions. It can also serve as a point for light shorting.

Short Stop Loss

4500

Breakthrough of key resistance, bearish logic invalidated.

Necessary setting. Leave room for possible trend continuation, must be firmly executed.

🧭 Comprehensive Analysis and Execution Suggestions

1. Market Trend Positioning: Your plan is suitable for range oscillation or weak rebound market conditions. The core strategy is “accumulate in batches during declines, take profit in batches during rebounds”, which is logically sound.

2. Special Reminder on Shorting Strategy:

   • In the current market, the risk of shorting against the trend is usually higher than going long with the trend. If the price rebounds to around 4450 USDT, attempt a short position, and be sure to strictly control the position (suggested to be only 1/3 or less of the long position), treating it as a short-term gamble.

   • Prioritize viewing 4450 as the perfect take profit point for bulls, rather than merely a starting point for shorting, which is a more prudent strategy.

3. Key Risk Alerts:

   • Volume Confirmation: Any directional breakout requires increased volume for confirmation. If the price rebounds to 4350 or 4450 and volume shrinks (volume-price divergence), it is a strong signal to take profit or attempt a short.

   • Strictly Execute Discipline: The key to your plan's success lies in batch operations and decisive stop-losses. Avoid changing plans due to short-term market fluctuations, especially moving stop-loss levels.

💡 Summary and Decision Reference

• If you are a conservative investor: It is recommended to prioritize executing a bullish strategy, buying in batches at 4200 and 4125, and taking profit in batches at 4350 and 4450. Abandon shorting against the trend to reduce overall risk.

• If you are an aggressive trader: You can attempt a light short position near the resistance level of 4450 while taking profit on the bullish side, with a strict stop loss set above 4500, targeting 4350 or 4200.

Please note that all market analyses and strategies carry uncertainties, and the above content is merely a summary based on the information you provided, not constituting any investment advice. Please make your own judgments based on real-time market conditions and always prioritize risk control.

Wishing you successful trading!

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【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Risks are to be borne by yourself. The article review and publication may have delays, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow the real-time strategies of the crypto expert】

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