Key Points:
The Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) indicator shows strong buyer support, while Ethereum (ETH) liquidity remains weak.
The net flow between Coinbase and Binance suggests a shift in liquidity patterns, favoring accumulation again.
Bitcoin (BTC) must break through $113,650 to confirm a bullish trend; otherwise, it risks a drop to $100,000.
According to Glassnode data, there is a clear divergence between the Bitcoin (BTC) Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) indicator and Ethereum (ETH). CBD is an on-chain metric used to identify price ranges where significant supply accumulation or distribution occurs. Currently, Ethereum (ETH) liquidity remains sparse; in contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) spot trading is more active, with recent trades showing a dense distribution across multiple price levels.
This density may indicate strong buyer confidence, which has historically provided more lasting support than futures-driven momentum.
Exchange fund flows further support this view. CryptoQuant reports that Coinbase recorded a surge in net inflows from August 25 to 31 after its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) hit a new low since the beginning of 2023. A rapid reversal from multi-year lows typically signals a shift in liquidity patterns, whether due to settlement structure adjustments or preparations for higher exchange activity.
At the same time, Binance's net inflows on the 30-day SMA reached their highest level since July 2024 on July 25 and August 25, a price level that historically corresponds to a re-accumulation phase before a new round of local highs.
The synchronization of Coinbase's lows and Binance's highs indicates significant reallocation of reserves, potentially laying the groundwork for subsequent price increases.
Recent spending or profit-taking by long-term holders (LTH) has also accelerated, with the 14-day SMA continuing to rise. However, overall activity remains at a normal cyclical level, far below the peaks of October to November 2024. This indicates a current orderly distribution rather than aggressive selling.
This week, Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience after dipping to $107,300 on Monday, a price level that aligns closely with its short-term realization price, suggesting potential support. Since that low, BTC has rebounded significantly, breaking above Monday's high of $109,900 during Tuesday's New York trading session.
This rebound occurred after a two-week adjustment phase, with short-term candlestick patterns on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts showing structural bullish breakout signals. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also returned above 50, further strengthening bullish confidence.
To sustain the recovery, Bitcoin needs to break through the immediate resistance in the $112,500 to $113,650 range. A clear close above $113,650 would confirm a bullish structural breakout on the daily chart and invalidate the descending trend line that has constrained price movement over the past two weeks. Such a breakout would open up space for liquidity targets at $116,300, $117,500, and potentially $119,500.
However, given that September has historically been a bearish season, traders should remain cautious. If the breakout fails or continues to struggle below $113,650, Bitcoin (BTC) still faces downside risks, with target clusters in the $105,000 to $100,000 range.
Related: Bitcoin Returns to $110,000, but Analysts Say BTC Market Remains "Fragile"
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Spot Trading Volume Rises, Possible Breakout to $119,000”
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