Author: Zhou, ChainCatcher
In the past month (August 1 - 31), there has been a clear differentiation within the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) peaked during the month before retreating, ending with a monthly decline of 6.15%; Ethereum (ETH) continued its strong performance, rising by 19.84%; Solana (SOL) and BNB increased by 17.85% and 9.79%, respectively. Overall, a structural market trend emerged, with sentiment becoming cautious by the end of the month.
In contrast, related stocks in the secondary market faced more concentrated pressure. MicroStrategy (MSTR), which is centered on Bitcoin holdings, fell by 16.78% in August, significantly underperforming BTC itself; Ethereum treasury and related stocks generally experienced deep corrections.
Why can't on-chain impulses drive the valuation elasticity of stocks? This is pushing the "coin-stock linkage" to a crossroads that needs recalibration.
August Overview: From Misalignment to Joint Decline, Stocks Are More Fragile
August was not a one-sided bull market. BTC peaked and then retreated within the month, ultimately closing lower; although ETH, SOL, and BNB still saw monthly gains, they all followed a "rise then retreat" pattern—overall, it resembled a scenario of rising and cooling down.
The stock market's reaction was more sensitive. Simply put, two factors are at play: first, the valuation premium is shrinking (the "price difference" between stock prices and net asset values is decreasing, even turning into a discount), and second, financing expectations are heating up (the market is concerned about continued issuance and convertible bonds). The same on-chain volatility, when transmitted to stock prices, gets amplified, leading to deeper pullbacks.
The attitude of institutions has also turned cold, further compressing the "imagination" of valuations. According to Barron’s, analysts Gus Galá from Monness, Crespi, Hardt downgraded MSTR from Neutral to Sell in April and maintained a Sell rating with a target price of $175 on August 21, citing Bitcoin's high volatility and cyclicality, the company's balance sheet fragility due to high-leverage coin purchases, and the potential decline of the premium relative to the net asset value of about 1.34 times. For many institutions, rather than bearing the uncertainties of corporate governance and dilution, it is preferable to directly allocate to spot assets or hold through compliant funds, causing the coin-stock linkage to naturally lose its premium space.
Crossroads: Repair the Linkage or Shut Down Early?
The direction is not determined by the price itself, but by whether the transmission efficiency can be repaired. In the past month, three links—treasury, financing, and operations—have almost simultaneously generated friction.
First, let's look at treasury transmission. Taking SharpLink (SBET) as an example, it has continuously updated its Ethereum holdings over the past month, simultaneously activating at-the-market (ATM) issuance and signaling that "if the stock price is below net asset value, a buyback will be considered." By the end of August, it ranked as the second-largest Ethereum treasury company. However, its stock price did not strengthen in sync with ETH; in August, it even closed lower overall, with its total market value falling below its ETH holdings. The market cares more about "how to hold and how to govern" than "how much to hold," and simply increasing the balance has become difficult to translate into valuation premiums.
Second, financing transmission is backfiring on stock prices. The narrative that once linked market capitalization to coin prices through "issuing shares to buy coins" is collapsing. For instance, ETH Z disclosed that it holds over $349 million in ETH reserves, yet due to a large-scale stock issuance plan, market concerns about dilution triggered a sharp decline in its stock price. This validates the notion that "financing is not a means to boost stock prices, but has become a source of suppression."
Finally, there is operational transmission. Mining institutions are under pressure to generate profits, and exchanges are experiencing sluggish growth, both of which weaken the linkage between stock prices and coin prices. According to Coinbase's Q2 financial report, its trading revenue was only about $764 million, a nearly 40% quarter-over-quarter decline; overall revenue fell from $2.034 billion in the first quarter to $1.497 billion, a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 26.4%. This indicates that although BTC and ETH are rising, the operational performance of exchanges has not improved in tandem, making it difficult to attract stock price increases.
The cumulative result of all this: the flavor of a late cycle has emerged. The short- to medium-term momentum of coin prices is starting to "pull back and rest," with sharpness dulling; the stock side is more fragile—premium retreat, financing fatigue, and operational elasticity not keeping pace often lead to stocks "gasping" before coins, turning early shutdown from a phenomenon into a consensus.
Repair or Decouple: Looking at Three Small Matters
From this deduction, even if these companies continue to purchase BTC/ETH at this moment, the marginal returns are more likely to quickly align with "net asset value," rather than the past scenario of "adding a layer of premium above net asset value." This is also the core of the crossroads: should we rely on mechanisms to repair the transmission, or accept a longer period of structural decoupling?
To judge the direction, there is no need to bet on grand narratives; just focus on these three small matters:
Watch the mNAV discount: Can it converge within 3-4 weeks, or even return to the premium range?
Watch financing actions: Will they shift from high-frequency ATM/convertible bonds to a more restrained pace, supplemented by buybacks/lock-ins to anchor net asset value per share?
Watch operational indicators: On-chain transaction fees/trading volume rebounding, marginal declines in mining companies' cash costs, and increases in the proportion of non-trading income from exchange derivatives/custody, etc.
If two of the three are satisfied, the story of linkage still has a sequel; otherwise, "decoupling" will be nailed down, and the elastic punishment that coin-stock experiences during the pullback period will be heavier.
Conclusion
In summary, this wave of "joint cooling" in late August is not an accident, but a public stress test. Moving forward, investors face the choice of continuing to bet on those companies that can translate "stories" into "mechanisms," or bypassing them to return to native assets and more transparent allocation tools. For the industry, this is more a reassessment of models: are coin-stocks a bridge to mainstream capital, or the first to shut down in the next round of market trends? The crossroads are right in front of us, and time will not be infinitely forgiving.
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