Trading moment: Market sentiment is short-term bearish, Bitcoin and Ethereum cautiously at $100,000 and $4,000, will the launch of WLFI exacerbate the bloodsucking?

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The market is at a critical crossroads, with a series of employment reports, key inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision set to arrive in the next two weeks, which will set the tone for the market. Historical data shows that September is usually the worst-performing month for U.S. stocks, yet the current Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is at an unusually low level, and the S&P 500 index has not seen significant pullbacks for several days, creating a strange calm that worries some Wall Street analysts. Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, predicts that the market will experience a 5% to 10% pullback in the fall, followed by a rebound by the end of the year. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research questions the possibility of a rate cut in September, suggesting that persistent inflation risks may keep the Federal Reserve's rates unchanged, leading to short-term impacts on the market.

Notably, the price of spot silver has surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, with an increase of over 40% this year. The U.S. Geological Survey has proposed adding silver to the "critical minerals list," which Citibank interprets as a precursor to potentially imposing import tariffs of up to 50%, maintaining a bullish outlook for silver prices at $43 per ounce. Meanwhile, thanks to strong performance and growth in AI chip shipments, Goldman Sachs has once again raised the target price for Cambricon to 2104 yuan within a week, optimistic about its leadership position in China's AI chip sector.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is facing a critical test. Overall market sentiment is cautiously bearish, with a report from Greeks.live indicating that Bitcoin's performance is weak, lacking strong support at the critical price level of $108,000. The current market adjustment is attributed to "market fatigue" or potential manipulation, with attention on the volatility that the non-farm payroll data on September 5 may trigger. Pessimism is mainly focused on concerns over key support levels. Analyst Ted believes Bitcoin may have formed a short-term top at $124,000 and plans to short when the price rebounds to the $115,000 to $120,000 range. Both Big Smokey and Altcoin Sherpa see risks of short-term prices dropping to $105,000 or lower, pointing out that long-term whale wallet sell-offs, stagnant spot ETF inflows, and weakness in traditional markets are major sources of pressure, with short-term key support at $104,000. A more pessimistic forecast comes from trader Roman, who warns that if the price falls below the $98,000 to $100,000 range, it could "officially confirm the end of the bull market"; AlphaBTC also notes that if the bearish crossover signal on the daily chart reoccurs, it could lead to a price retracement to $92,000, or even drop to the low of $80,000. However, there are also optimistic voices in the market. Michaël van de Poppe views the $102,000 to $104,000 range as an ideal entry point. CrypNuevo believes the current situation is more likely a market deviation rather than a deep correction, expecting large funds to buy in using panic sentiment before interest rate adjustments, even if the price may test $107,200 or retrace to $94,000 in the short term, but he believes the CME gap at $117,000 will eventually be filled.

In contrast to Bitcoin's weakness, Ethereum shows relative strength. Analyst Ted points out that although Ethereum has recently outperformed Bitcoin, it may still face pressure to test the key support level of $4,000 in the short term. On-chain data shows that an ancient Bitcoin whale is continuously swapping its held Bitcoin for Ethereum, having recently accumulated over 837,000 ETH through BTC sales. Analyst Axel Bitblaze believes that the current lack of market liquidity is a major issue, but as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates and ends quantitative tightening, liquidity is expected to return in October or November, paving the way for a market rebound and setting the stage for a new bull market in 2026.

In market dynamics, the WLFI token will be the focus of TGE at 9 PM tonight, and its ecological projects Blockstreet (BLOCK) and Dolomite (DOLO) are also gaining popularity. On-chain data indicates that the well-known market maker Jump Crypto has likely become a market maker for WLFI. The project has received investments from several institutions, including DWF Labs ($25 million), Aqua One Fund ($100 million), and Nasdaq-listed ALT5 Sigma ($1.5 billion), with partners from Momentum 6 also stating they hold seven-figure positions.

2. Key Data (as of September 1, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

Bitcoin: $107,863 (YTD +15.24%), daily spot trading volume $30.48 billion
Ethereum: $4,397.19 (YTD +31.69%), daily spot trading volume $23.75 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 47 (Neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.274 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 58.05%, ETH 14%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, SOL, POL
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.88%/50.12%
Sector performance: GameFi down 7.76%, AI down 5.38%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 100,327 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $230 million, including $33.58 million in BTC, $57.02 million in ETH, and $13.51 million in SOL
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line ($112,577.10), lower line ($110,347.85)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line ($4,477.41), lower line ($4,388.75)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of August 29)

Bitcoin ETF: -$127 million, first net outflow after four days of net inflow
Ethereum ETF: -$165 million

4. Today's Outlook

U.S. stocks will be closed on September 1
WLFI will launch on the Ethereum mainnet on September 1, with early investors unlocking 20%
Starknet will reach an important stage of decentralized ordering on September 1,and will support Bitcoin staking in the coming weeks
Binance Wallet's 36th TGE will launch Forest (FOREST)
Binance Alpha will launch Quack AI (Q) on September 2
Eric Trump, son of Donald Trump, will attend the special shareholders' meeting of Metaplanet on September 1
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 44 million tokens at 8 AM on September 1, accounting for 1.25% of the current circulation, valued at about $145 million;
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens at 8 AM on September 1, accounting for 4.55% of the current circulation, valued at about $8.4 million
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3 PM on September 2, accounting for 0.64% of the current circulation, valued at about $27.1 million;

The largest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Four.meme down 22.4%, Conflux down 10.5%, Pi Network down 9.4%, Pyth Network down 8.6%, Fartcoin down 6.8%.

5. Hot News

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Trading moment: Market sentiment is short-term bearish, Bitcoin and Ethereum cautiously at $100,000 and $4,000, will the launch of WLFI exacerbate the bloodsucking?

1. Market Observation

2. Key Data (as of September 1, 12:00 HKT)

3. ETF Flows (as of August 29)

4. Today's Outlook

5. Hot News

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