This week, the cryptocurrency market was directly influenced by the Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate cut in September. Initially, the market surged due to Powell's dovish remarks, but later retreated as funding momentum weakened: ETFs ended a streak of inflows, turning into a net outflow of $969 million. The mainstream coins showed a pattern of "BTC volatility, ETH rebound," while altcoin liquidity contracted and attempts to rally failed. The current market has entered a consolidation phase, requiring close attention to the guidance of September's macro data on capital flows, as well as signals of capital returning to mainstream coins and strengthening altcoin structures.

1. Macroeconomics and Policy: September Rate Cut "On the Horizon," Fed's Stance Clearly Shifts

1.1 Rate Cut Logic: Dual Support from Economic Data and Policy Framework

The Federal Reserve's rate cut in September has become "necessary + feasible."

The impact of tariffs on inflation is a short-term phenomenon with limited effects. The Fed's best strategy is to seize the right moment to cut rates when economic data clearly shows a slowdown, while maintaining policy independence free from market skepticism.

September is the ideal window for this timing. Recent U.S. economic data indicates a certain degree of slowdown in employment, income, consumption, and real estate. The non-farm payroll data for August showed only 73,000 new jobs, with significant downward revisions for the previous two months.

Excluding contributions from the education and healthcare sectors, job growth has nearly stagnated. Meanwhile, real disposable income and personal consumption expenditures have failed to reach new highs for three consecutive months. Fed Chair Powell emphasized his concern about the slowdown in the labor market during the July meeting and further clarified at the global central bank annual meeting on August 22 that the downside risks in the labor market are rising, indicating that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance, sending a clear dovish signal.

This statement marks a clear shift in the Fed's policy stance. From a longer-term perspective, Powell adjusted the monetary policy framework at the central bank annual meeting, stating that there is no need to wait for inflation to fall below 2% as a "compensatory" condition; as long as the inflation growth rate remains stable, there is room for rate cuts.

Additionally, research indicates that the composition of the Fed's voting committee in 2026 is generally leaning dovish, suggesting that even without external political interference, the Fed's policy orientation will become more accommodative.

1.2 Key Variable: M2 Trends Affect BTC Weekly Trends

Global M2 is currently on a downward trend, with the key window for liquidity transmission to BTC occurring in the week of September 5: if M2 continues to decline, it may lead to a BTC weekly death cross, confirming a bullish adjustment;

Potential positives: In the context of global macroeconomic instability and geopolitical conflicts, countries may respond to economic downturns and increased military spending through quantitative easing, potentially driving BTC to form a fourth wave weekly golden cross within the monthly golden cross channel, reaching new highs.

1.3 Key Macroeconomic Data Calendar for September (Impacting Key Market Indicators)

2. Market Trends: Highs Followed by Weakness, Mainstream Coin Divergence Intensifies

2.1 Weekly Market Review (8.22-8.29): Rate Cut Benefits Hard to Sustain

In the bullish phase (evening of 8.22): After Powell signaled a rate cut, the market quickly surged—BTC peaked at $116,000, and ETH broke new highs at $4,800, reversing the short-term weakness;

In the pullback adjustment phase (8.23-8.25): After BTC's surge, it lacked upward momentum, experiencing a deep correction on 8.25, giving back all gains (dipping to a low of $112,000), establishing a local weakness;

In the consolidation phase (8.26-8.29): BTC attempted to rebound but was capped at $113,500, failing to break through key resistance; ETH remained relatively strong, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate continuing to rise, showing significant resilience.

2.2 Core Capital Indicators: External Inflows Warming Up, Market Sentiment Neutral

2.2.1 Stablecoins: Significant Increase in Issuance, Strong Capital Support

This week (8/23-8/29), the total issuance of stablecoins reached $237.999 billion, with a significant weekly increase from $1.442 billion to $3.753 billion. The average daily issuance also rose from $206 million to $536 million, reflecting a 160% month-on-month increase. Although the overall market was still in a correction phase this week, the issuance of stablecoins has returned to levels seen when Bitcoin reached new highs in the middle of the month, indicating strong capital performance.

Currently, the scale of stablecoins has rebounded to levels seen when Bitcoin hit new highs, with ample capital reserves, but a "FOMO" entry situation has not yet formed.

2.2.2 ETF Funds: BTC Stops Declining, ETH Continues to Show Strength

Compared to last week's net outflow of $1.165 billion, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $544.2 million. As Bitcoin's price fell below $112,000, signs of capital willing to enter for bottom-fishing began to emerge. However, the overall ETF capital inflow level for August remains relatively low compared to the high inflows in July, which is also reflected in Bitcoin's overall weaker performance in August.

Ethereum ETF funds also saw a net inflow of $1.58871 billion compared to last week's net outflow. Throughout August, the inflow level for Ethereum ETFs remained relatively high, except for a slight net outflow last week, which is reflected in Ethereum's price showing better elasticity compared to Bitcoin this week.

2.2.3 OTC Premiums: Stable Sentiment, No Extreme Signals

The OTC premium rates for USDT and USDC maintained a slight upward trend before 8/27. This indicates that despite the overall market correction, some OTC capital continued to enter for bottom-fishing. However, after the market rebound on 8/27, there was no further ignition of market sentiment, and the OTC premium rates for USDT and USDC turned downward again. Overall, the market is still in a consolidation range without the slight premiums seen during a bull market's FOMO phase.

2.2.4 Exchange Balances: BTC Selling Pressure Not Resolved, ETH Holdings Concentrated

BTC Exchange Balance: After the bullish signal on 8.22, it rose significantly, indicating that potential selling pressure has not been fully digested, posing a major resistance for future rebounds;

ETH Exchange Balance: Continues to decline, reflecting an increased willingness of investors to hold long-term, with a higher concentration of holdings supporting price resilience.

2.3 Holding Address Proportions and URPD

From the perspective of Bitcoin holding address proportions, addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have begun to show a slight downward turn, indicating signs of slight selling from this group. Additionally, addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC also show a downward trend, reflecting certain selling signs, while addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have shown a very clear upward turn this week, indicating significant accumulation activity.

In terms of Bitcoin's chip distribution, it can be observed that the previously mentioned URPD gap around $112,000-$114,000 has now been completely filled. After this filling, it can now be considered that a very wide chip concentration area has formed between $93,000 and $118,000, which currently accumulates about 28% of Bitcoin's total supply. Therefore, from the perspective of the entire chip concentration area, we can only focus on several prominent chip peaks, specifically the key support and resistance levels at $97,000-$98,000, $104,000-$107,000, and $117,000-$118,000.

3. Altcoin Market: Sentiment Warming but Diverging, Local Opportunities Emerging

3.1 Market Overview: Overall Warming, Significantly Affected by BTC Volatility

Altcoin Market Capitalization

This Friday, TOTAL2 (total market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH) reached $1,060 billion, up 4% week-on-week. Powell's dovish remarks and adjustments to the monetary policy framework last Friday provided significant imaginative space for the market, leading to a global rally and a substantial market surge. However, over the weekend, the market sentiment was significantly impacted by some whales swapping BTC for ETH, causing a rollercoaster effect in BTC's overall trend, which also greatly affected market sentiment. Midweek, as conditions improved, the market gradually rebounded.

On-chain TVL Overview: The total on-chain TVL (blue line) reached $156.8 billion, up 5.5% from last week. This week, as prices rose, TVL also increased. The amount of ETH staked on-chain remained relatively stable despite price fluctuations.

Stablecoin Market Capitalization and Exchange Reserves

The total market capitalization of stablecoins is $262.5 billion, continuing to increase by 1.7% week-on-week, with a significant rise in the weekly increase.

In terms of net inflows for stablecoins, as of Friday, the total net inflow reached $3.7 billion, showing an increase compared to last week's inflow.

The overall balance of stablecoins on exchanges has significantly increased this week, with a large net inflow observed in the single week of this year.

3.2 Sectors and Targets: Public Chains + Event-Driven as the Main Line

Strong Public Chain Ecosystem: The SOL chain performed outstandingly, with a TVL increase of +10.71% (reaching $11.8 billion), driven by user growth in ecological applications, leading to significant gains in related tokens (such as PYTH);

Event-Driven Targets: NMR (AI + Quantitative Events), PROMPT (AI Generation Field), CRO (Exchange Sector Recovery), etc., have become popular altcoins this week due to specific event catalysts;

Sector Divergence: Only the exchange and database sectors rose, while other sectors fluctuated with the overall market, necessitating caution regarding the risk of "single-point heat" being unsustainable.

3.3 Risks and Peak Escape Indicators: No Peak Signals Currently

No peak escape indicators were hit this week, and several risk indicators (such as BTC market share dropping from 90% to 88%, and the altcoin season index rising) show that we are still in a "consolidation and warming" phase, not yet reaching the peak of a bull market.

4. Primary Market and On-Chain Data: Ecosystem Steadily Recovering, Activity Needs Improvement

4.1 TVL of Four Major Public Chains: SOL Leads, Ecosystem Divergence Intensifies

This week, on-chain TVL saw a slight increase, with overall conditions being relatively good, especially for the SOL chain, which showed significant growth.

In terms of on-chain DeFi bridging asset flows this week, the most inflow was into the ETH chain, while the most outflow continued to be from BASE, which is worth ongoing attention. The most issuance of stablecoins was from USDC, and the growth momentum of the ETH chain remains strong. However, it is worth noting that the staking sector saw the most outflow this week, possibly due to a relatively large increase in ETH staking recently.

4.2 On-Chain Prosperity Index: At the Critical Decline Line, Warming Requires Catalysts

In summary, we weighted the changes in TVL of the four major public chains and the on-chain data (with a full score of 100) and defined the intervals:

Extreme Prosperity: 80 points

Upward Line: 60 points

Decline Line: 50 points

Bear Market: 30 points

5. Recommendations for Next Week's Operations

Position Strategy: Maintain 40-50% of the base position in mainstream coins (BTC/ETH), with BTC focusing on the $112,000 support and ETH on the $4,500 support; control altcoins at 10-20%, prioritizing SOL ecosystem and event-driven targets, avoiding chasing highs;

Key Signals: Focus on tracking the ISM Manufacturing PMI on September 2 and non-farm data on September 5. If the data is weaker than expected (reinforcing rate cuts), it may drive capital inflows; if stronger than expected, be cautious of retracement risks;

Risk Warning: Strong resistance at $117,000 - $118,000 for BTC; do not blindly increase positions before breaking through; significant divergence in altcoins, avoid excessive concentration on a single target.

The data in this report is compiled and organized by WolfDAO (x:10xWolfDAO). For any questions, please contact us for updates;

Written by: WolfDAO

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