Key Points:
Bitcoin shorts have a strong incentive below $114,000, and pressure may intensify before the options expiration.
Concerns over spending in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector have heightened market volatility, affecting investors' overall risk appetite.
A total of $13.8 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options will expire on August 29, and many traders believe this moment could determine whether Bitcoin's recent 9.7% pullback is the end of the bull market or just a temporary adjustment. On Thursday, Bitcoin fell to $112,100, marking a six-week low and adding momentum to the bearish forces ahead of the monthly options expiration.
Currently, the open interest for call options stands at $7.44 billion, which is 17% higher than the $6.37 billion for put options. However, the final outcome still depends on the Bitcoin price at 8:00 AM (UTC) on August 29. Deribit holds an 85% market share, followed by CME at 7% and OKX at 3%.
Bulls may be overly confident, with some bets placed above $125,000. As Bitcoin declines, this optimism quickly fades, shifting the market focus to bearish instruments. Regardless of the reasons behind the BTC price pullback, traders opting for bullish strategies are likely to be disappointed.
Currently, only 12% of call options have a strike price at or below $115,000, with most being out of the money. In contrast, 21% of put options have a strike price at or above $115,000, with a significant concentration at $112,000. Therefore, it is expected that shorts will continue to exert pressure on Bitcoin's price before the monthly expiration.
It is still too early to assert that bullish options strategies have completely failed. Traders are awaiting comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday, as any hints regarding an increased probability of interest rate cuts could support asset prices. On Thursday, U.S. unemployment claims data exceeded expectations, further raising rate cut expectations amid high macroeconomic uncertainty.
Here are five possible scenarios from Deribit based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on the imbalance of open contracts but do not include complex strategies, such as selling put options for exposure to price increases.
Between $105,000 and $110,000: $210 million in call options (buy) versus $2.66 billion in put options (sell). The net result favors bearish instruments, amounting to $2.45 billion.
Between $110,100 and $114,000: $420 million in call options versus $1.94 billion in put options, favoring put options, amounting to $1.5 billion.
Between $114,100 and $116,000: $795 million in call options versus $1.15 billion in put options, favoring put options, amounting to $360 million.
Between $116,100 and $118,000: $1.3 billion in call options versus $830 million in put options, favoring call options, amounting to $460 million.
Between $118,100 and $120,000: $1.7 billion in call options versus $560 million in put options, favoring call options, amounting to $1.1 billion.
For bullish strategies to be effective, Bitcoin needs to rise above $116,000 before August 29. However, the most critical watershed remains at $114,000, where shorts have the most motivation to push prices down.
Ultimately, Bitcoin's performance at the $13.8 billion monthly options expiration will depend on broader macroeconomic trends, including investor concerns about the AI sector. Morgan Stanley has warned that surging spending could limit the ability of large tech companies to buy back stock, further exacerbating the cautious atmosphere in the stock market.
Related: Data shows: 13 wallets profited over $24 million by selling YZY tokens
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) $13.8 Billion Options Expiry Looms, Bulls Face Key Test”
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