Key Points:
The pressure in the bond market has historically coincided with the bottom of the BTC cycle, which may indicate that new buying opportunities are on the horizon.
U.S. debt has surpassed the $37 trillion mark, coupled with rising 10-year yields, suggesting that macroeconomic pressures may benefit BTC in the fourth quarter.
Buying opportunities for BTC may arise before a strong rebound in the fourth quarter, with the bond market potentially playing a key role.
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, points out that one of the most reliable indicators to watch is the ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS). This indicator measures the extra yield required by investors to hold high-risk corporate bonds instead of safe U.S. Treasuries. A spike in OAS typically signals rising panic in the credit markets. Historically, these market pressure points often align closely with local bottoms in Bitcoin.
Currently, the OAS indicator remains relatively calm, indicating that the market has not fully absorbed the next wave of pressure. Wedson believes that if credit spreads widen in the upcoming quarter (a common phenomenon during liquidity tightening periods), it could create conditions for another accumulation phase for Bitcoin.
The broader macro context reinforces this view. U.S. debt has crossed the $37 trillion threshold, requiring over $2.6 billion in interest payments daily. The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating reflects deep market concerns about this fiscal path. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.3%, significantly up from 3.9% a year ago, raising the borrowing costs across the overall economic system.
Wedson analyzes that this combination of fiscal pressure and rising yields could ultimately shake traditional markets, while BTC, as an alternative asset, stands to benefit. "An aggressive bear market will come sooner or later," he emphasized. "But before that, market euphoria is the most likely scenario. I expect that most of 2026 and beyond will be exceptionally challenging for the U.S. economy."
Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains steady, as evidenced by Strategy's latest purchasing action on Sunday. The company acquired 430 BTC at an average price of $119,666 each, totaling an investment of about $51.4 million. This purchase brings its total BTC holdings to 629,376 coins.
However, on-chain data shows that selling pressure among Bitcoin's largest holders is increasing. Cointelegraph reports that the number of super-whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC has dropped to its lowest level since 2025, with a negative trend persisting for 30 days since mid-July. Similarly, whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC are also on the decline, indicating profit-taking after recent price peaks.
Further exacerbating market volatility, nearly 32,000 long-dormant BTC (3-5 years unused), worth about $3.78 billion, were transferred in a single transaction. This is the largest transfer of BTC from this age group in over a year.
📊MARKET UPDATE: Nearly 32K dormant BTC (3–5y old) worth ~$3.78B was moved, the largest transfer from this age band in over a year. 👀(h/t: @JA_Maartun) pic.twitter.com/DfQLabFRKR
Analysts point out that these signals suggest that while institutional buyers continue to actively accumulate BTC, the broader whale activity and sudden activation of dormant coins may drive a short-term market pullback, keeping price volatility elevated.
Related: Analysts believe Bitcoin (BTC) buyers are weakening, retail investors are turning to altcoins.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Analyst: The Next Bitcoin (BTC) Buy Signal May Come from Bond Market Stress”
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