Predictive market Kalshi's bettors forecast that Google's Gemini will become the top AI text model by the end of 2025. These positions reflect the ongoing development of Gemini's competitors, as the race for large language models (LLMs) heats up.
Since Tuesday, Gemini has gained an overwhelming lead, with 57% of users betting on the model, up from 48.1% the previous day. During the same period, OpenAI's ChatGPT model has dropped from 25.4% to 20%, while xAI's Grok odds have fallen from 18.8% to 15%.
This specific Kalshi prediction scenario will settle on December 31, with bettors on the winning model receiving their allocated amounts. The LM Arena leaderboard—"an open platform where everyone can […] access, explore, and interact with the world's leading AI models"—will verify the results. Currently, the trading volume for this prediction scenario has reached $7.4 million.
On August 15, Google announced a series of updates for Gemini, including storybook mode, improved reasoning models, and temporary chats that are not saved in user history. Meanwhile, OpenAI faced setbacks, including criticism over the launch of ChatGPT-5, prompting CEO Sam Altman to defend the company on X.
xAI's Grok also encountered well-known issues, with users accusing the model of bias towards right or left-wing politics, depending on the user. After the model allegedly praised Adolf Hitler, the company was forced to delete certain Grok posts.
The pursuit of becoming the world's top large language model has intensified in recent months, with the industry vying for dominance across various fields.
One of these fields is internet search, from which many AI models derive information and sources. Last Tuesday, AI company Perplexity made a $34.5 billion unsolicited cash offer for Google's Chrome browser, which holds a major share of the internet browser market. Reports indicate that OpenAI is also interested in acquiring the browser.
China-based AI company DeepSeek has gained market share. In April, it released a new model called Prover 2, which performs advanced mathematics.
However, antitrust actions could pose obstacles to AI development. In October 2024, antitrust authorities from G7 countries indicated they might take action to protect competition in the AI sector. Participants in the AI industry, Google and Meta, are both facing antitrust lawsuits—Google from a U.S. district court and Meta from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). These lawsuits could impact AI development.
Related: Former Twitter CEO Agrawal launches AI startup
Original article: “57% of Kalshi bettors predict Gemini will be the top AI text model in 2025”
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