When market sentiment is high, one must be wary of the risk of a pullback, especially paying attention to leveraged operations and black swan events.
On August 11, Huobi HTX's latest "Partner 1+1" live stream focused on the theme "Ethereum may be迎来 its 'main narrative' moment; how should we position ourselves in the current market environment?" It invited crypto KOLs such as Zishi and Tang Hua to engage in an in-depth discussion about Ethereum's positioning, future potential, and investment strategies, providing investors with multi-dimensional perspectives and practical advice.
Current Status of Ethereum: Short-term Volatility Driven by External Funds
Zishi analyzed that Ethereum's recent surge past $4200 is not driven by internal funds from the crypto space, but rather by strong support from the U.S. stock market and institutional funds, similar to the market conditions when the Bitcoin ETF was approved. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have not yet materialized, and the benefits of pension funds entering the market have not been fully realized. The current upward trend resembles short-term volatility rather than the start of a new bull market. Ethereum may break through $5000, but volatility will persist, and investors need to closely monitor institutional fund movements.
Tang Hua noted that although institutional participation is evident, retail investors are seeing a reduction in their holdings, making it difficult for them to share in the gains.
Ethereum Price Ceiling: $5000, $6000, or Higher?
Regarding Ethereum's potential price, the guests had differing opinions:
Zishi believes that external funds may push Ethereum past $5000, but the specific height depends on the buying point and market volatility. He emphasized that current funds are only rotating between Bitcoin and Ethereum, with liquidity for altcoins and new coins nearly disappearing, indicating that external funds only favor top assets.
Ailerson predicts that Ethereum will likely break through $5000 in the short term, with psychological resistance possibly at $6300-$6500. In the long term, it should be referenced against Bitcoin's price ratio and market sentiment, potentially reaching $8000-$10000. He cautioned that the cyclical nature of the market's upward spiral needs to be analyzed with data.
Tang Hua pointed out that Bitcoin's status as a reserve asset is not yet fully solidified, and Ethereum is currently more suitable as a core asset rather than a reserve asset. In a bull market, Bitcoin still has over a 40% pullback risk, and Ethereum carries even higher risks, so investors should proceed with caution.
Investment Strategies and Risk Management
In terms of investment layout strategies, the three guests shared their experiences and advice:
Ailerson suggested a "532" allocation, meaning 50% Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum, and 20% other potential coins (such as SOL). He emphasized setting up a dollar-cost averaging strategy to avoid chasing highs and to pay attention to information from leading exchanges like Huobi HTX to capture market opportunities.
Zishi candidly admitted to "selling Ethereum too early" and is currently choosing to stay in cash and observe. He believes that trading is "the art of waiting," and being in cash is also a form of investment strategy.
Tang Hua believes that as small retail investors, one should maintain a bull market mindset, focusing on the rebound opportunities of mainstream public chain coins (like SOL and AVAX), while adhering to established trading strategies to avoid frequent choices that lead to losses.
In terms of risk management, all three guests unanimously reminded that when market sentiment is high, one must be wary of the risk of a pullback, especially paying attention to leveraged operations and black swan events.
About Huobi HTX
Huobi HTX was established in 2013 and has developed over 12 years from a cryptocurrency exchange into a comprehensive blockchain business ecosystem, covering digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investment, incubation, and other businesses.
As a global leader in the Web3 portal, Huobi HTX adheres to a development strategy of global expansion, ecological prosperity, wealth effect, and safety compliance, providing comprehensive, safe, and reliable value and services for virtual currency enthusiasts worldwide.
For more information about Huobi HTX, please visit https://www.htx.com/ or HTX Square, and follow us on X, Telegram, and Discord. For further inquiries, please contact glo-media@htx-inc.com.
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