Original Title: Crypto traders ‘fool themselves’ with price predictions: Peter Brandt

Author: Ciaran Lyons, Cointelegraph Magazine

Compiled & Edited by: Fairy, ChainCatcher

Editor’s Note:

Peter Brandt founded Factor Trading Co., Inc. in 1981, focusing on proprietary trading. From the mid-1980s to the early 1990s, he also managed funds for several large institutional clients. He gained fame for accurately predicting trends in commodities, futures, and the crypto market (such as the 2017-2018 Bitcoin bull market), and is now one of the most watched technical traders in the crypto space.

In the noisy crypto market, Peter Brandt's voice remains a unique one. He is both a veteran representative of chartists and a controversial "deadpan comedian." To traders, he is a "price hunter" known for accurately timing market bottoms and tops; in the crypto community, he is a provocateur who enjoys "fishing" and teasing ETH and XRP bulls.

This article features an in-depth interview with this market veteran, who has been trading commodities since 1975, reflecting on how he entered the crypto world and his views on the true value of chart analysis.

Brandt's perspective may not be popular, but it is quite enlightening: in the market, not every prediction needs to be treated as a belief system; sometimes, it is merely an opportunity to place a bet.

Here is the original text, compiled by ChainCatcher.

“I only look for opportunities to turn $1 into $4.”

“Someone who looks at a chart and tells you where a certain asset will go in the future is just fooling themselves.”

Legendary trader Peter Brandt candidly shared his trading philosophy during an interview: charts cannot predict future prices; they can only tell you where prices "have been and where they are now."

In his view, the significance of charts lies not in prediction but in identifying opportunities where the risk-reward ratio is extremely asymmetric. He said, "Probabilistically, the market usually moves along its existing trend but will fluctuate within a certain range. I focus on those points where $1 can potentially yield $4; even with only a 50% success rate, I am willing to take the shot."

Peter Brandt's Half-Century Journey in the Market

Since entering the commodity trading market in 1975, Peter Brandt has been active for nearly half a century. He has over 800,000 followers on Twitter. Economist and Wall Street Journal columnist Barry Ritholtz even named him one of the "30 most influential people in finance."

Surprisingly, Brandt does not have a formal background in finance. He graduated from the University of Minnesota with a degree in journalism in 1970 and initially worked in advertising, serving clients like McDonald's and even witnessing the birth of the "Ronald McDonald" brand image.

It wasn't until a neighbor involved in soybean trading introduced him to the market that Brandt began to pay attention to futures. A few years later, he decided to leave his stable advertising career and fully immerse himself in corn futures trading. Since the 1970s, he has been active in the agricultural market, earning considerable trading profits from the volatility caused by weather changes and policy fluctuations.

Afterward, he managed large institutional client accounts and founded his proprietary trading company, Factor Trading Co., which is still in operation today. In 2011, he published "Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader," which topped the Amazon trading book charts for 27 consecutive weeks.

A Phone Call That Brought Him into the Crypto World

In May 2016, five years after his bestseller "Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader" topped Amazon, Peter Brandt received a private message from Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision: "Peter, I appreciate your views; what do you think of this chart?" The chart depicted Bitcoin, which was priced under $450 at the time.

Brandt was immediately drawn in and exclaimed, "Wow, this thing is amazing." He then called Pal to ask how to buy Bitcoin.

A few months later, Bitcoin rose to $1,000, and Brandt sold at the right time, successfully doubling his investment. From then on, Brandt began frequently assessing the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin and other crypto assets, sometimes earning praise and other times facing skepticism.

In December 2017, he almost "predicted to the day" the top of Bitcoin and foresaw an 80% correction, which was fully realized in the following 12 months.

However, he admitted that some of his shocking predictions were made in jest. For example, in June 2024, he jokingly suggested that Bitcoin might plummet 75%, only for BTC to hit a new high of $123,100 a month later. He remarked, "Looking back, my sarcastic tone wasn't clear enough; I should learn to use emojis, like adding four winks at the end of my tweets."

Now he believes that such drastic declines are unlikely to recur. "Bitcoin has moved towards institutionalization and is widely accepted; the era of massive corrections may be over."

But after 50 years of market experience, having entered the field decades before the 2008 financial crisis, Brandt also acknowledges, "In the market, anything is possible."

The Emotionless Trading Master Who Enjoys "Stirring the Pot"

Peter Brandt is quite controversial in the ETH and XRP communities due to his frequent sharp and even stinging tweets. However, he insists that he is an "emotionless trader" rather than a fan of any particular coin. He believes that whether it's BTC or Solana, these are merely trading tools, not objects of worship.

As a technical analyst, Brandt does not shy away from the negative signals conveyed by charts, which often leads to criticism for his bearish comments. Despite his harsh words, he still holds ETH and XRP in his investment portfolio, with Bitcoin accounting for about 40% of his total investments.

Brandt also admits that he enjoys "stirring the pot" in the crypto community, sometimes deliberately making provocative statements to elicit reactions, candidly stating that this is a form of "fishing." He believes the crypto community is prone to emotional responses, with many misinterpreting criticism of a coin as a personal attack and habitually labeling others.

For those who steadfastly hold onto their beliefs despite experiencing multiple significant drawdowns, Brandt takes a critical stance, arguing that such blind adherence could ultimately lead to bankruptcy.

Brandt: A Rational View on the Million-Dollar Bitcoin Expectation

Peter Brandt believes that the Bitcoin bull market has already begun, rather than still being in its infancy. He points out that when the market is at its peak, investors are generally optimistic, while at the bottom, emotions are often extremely pessimistic. Emotions are driven by price and, in turn, drive price movements.

However, Brandt does not pay much attention to the "halving cycle" but focuses more on the "bull market cycle," which is the complete time span from the bottom of the previous bear market to the top of the next bull market. According to his assessment, the current bull market began in November 2022 and has lasted nearly three years, which is a sufficiently long cycle.

He also revealed the "exponential decay" pattern of Bitcoin bull market returns:

• The first bull market had a rise of about 3,200 times;
• The second round was about 630 times;
• The third round dropped to 122 times;
• The fourth round was only 21 times.

Brandt pointed out that although Bitcoin's rise seems astonishing, its actual returns have significantly decreased. He believes that claims of Bitcoin reaching $1 million lack accountability.

Brandt emphasized that this does not mean Bitcoin can never reach that price; it is just extremely difficult to achieve. Even with high government debt and continuous money printing, it is insufficient to support the notion that Bitcoin should rise to $1 million.

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