Author: Martin

A $9 billion Bitcoin transaction has unveiled the transition of old and new capital in the crypto world.

At the end of July, the cryptocurrency market witnessed an epic transaction: digital asset company Galaxy Digital assisted a "Satoshi era" whale investor in selling 80,000 Bitcoins in one go, valued at over $9 billion. This figure set a record for the largest single transaction in cryptocurrency history. Surprisingly, such a massive sell-off did not trigger a market crash—after a brief 3% pullback, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $119,000, even surpassing the price before the sell-off by $5,000.

Behind this transaction, a debate about the essence of Bitcoin is brewing. Some analysts exclaim that the "faith system has collapsed," while institutional investors quietly take over. As ancient whales that have been dormant for 14 years awaken and exit, how should ordinary people respond to this capital upheaval?

1. The Whale Emerges: The Background of the $9 Billion Sell-off

The protagonist of this market-shaking transaction is a Bitcoin address that has been silent for over 14 years. This address accumulated Bitcoins between 2010 and 2011, when the price was only $1 to $10, and now it has surpassed $120,000.

On-chain data analysis suggests that these Bitcoins were likely obtained from early mining—at that time, the network's computing power was extremely low, and ordinary laptops could mine hundreds of coins. The sophisticated operational strategy was key to preventing market disruption during this sell-off, as Galaxy Digital employed a segmented order strategy:

• 14,000 BTC entered Binance

• 8,975 BTC entered Bitstamp

• 7,420 BTC entered Bybit

• 7,150 BTC entered OKX

• The remaining 30,400 BTC were dispersed through OTC trading

This multi-channel synchronous operation avoided concentrated selling pressure on the order book, making it a classic case of a "silent whale fall."

Estate planning was the officially announced direct motive. Galaxy clearly stated that this sell-off was part of the client's "inheritance strategy." If not handled in advance, up to 40% federal estate tax in the U.S. could consume billions in wealth.

Deeper concerns stem from tightening regulations. The new FATF rules in 2026 require tracing the transaction history of dormant addresses for over ten years, and exchanges have begun requiring old wallet users to provide additional identity verification. The anticipation of the disappearance of anonymity accelerated the whale's exit decision.

2. Timing of the Sell-off: Why Cash Out at $120,000?

For an investor holding for over ten years, choosing to exit now reflects multiple considerations:

Wealth intergenerational transfer needs: Many early Bitcoin holders have entered middle age or even old age, making it a reality to incorporate crypto assets into estate planning. When the earliest investors begin to consider how to pass Bitcoin as an inheritance to the next generation, it itself is the strongest endorsement of its value storage attribute.

Mature market liquidity window: The current Bitcoin market depth has reached unprecedented levels, and the popularity of spot ETFs has brought institutional-level buying from the traditional financial world, providing a liquidity foundation for large-scale exits. Galaxy Digital's involvement as a regulated public company ensured the professionalism and compliance of the transaction.

Price entering an ideal range: Bitcoin just set a historical high of about $123,000 on July 14, providing an ideal exit price for long-term holders. Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin quickly stabilized after the whale sell-off and is currently forming a "descending wedge" pattern, with a target price of $125,000 upon breakout.

By choosing to exit at the current price range of $110,000 to $120,000, the whale demonstrated remarkable patience and precise calculation.

The ten-thousand-fold difference between cost and return forms the basis for cashing out. With an initial cost of about $5, the original investment for 80,000 Bitcoins was only $400,000, while now it is worth $9 billion, yielding a return rate of over 220,000 times. Even if calculated at the 2011 peak of $30, the return is still as high as 4,000 times.

Capturing signals at the cycle peak is also crucial. Bitcoin has risen nearly 7 times since the 2024 low, breaking through $120,000 in July to set a historical high. Multiple analysts pointed out that $120,000 is three times the peak of the 2017 bull market, indicating natural selling pressure. The whale chose to sell after reaching a new high, maximizing profits while leveraging market exuberance to absorb the sell-off.

From a market structure perspective, the institutionalization process provided a perfect exit channel. After the approval of spot ETFs, institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity can absorb thousands of Bitcoins in a single day. For instance, during this sell-off, BlackRock's IBIT increased its holdings by over 3,000 BTC in one day, becoming a significant buyer.

However, deeper anxiety arises from the dilution of Bitcoin's original spirit. As ETFs, corporate treasuries, and custody solutions incorporate Bitcoin into the traditional financial system, the original intent of "anti-censorship and decentralization" is being diluted. Some community members lament, "The whale's exit confirms that Bitcoin has devolved from a 'personal sovereignty tool' to a 'financial engineering product.'"

3. Market Impact: The Real Picture Behind the Sell-off Shockwaves

The $9 billion sell-off serves as a litmus test, revealing the astonishing resilience of the Bitcoin market.

The stability at the price level is the most surprising. Despite the sell-off accounting for 0.6% of the circulating supply at the time (the actual percentage is higher due to ETF lock-up), Bitcoin only briefly dropped from $118,000 to $115,000, recovering within hours. Compared to the 10% crash triggered by a 10,000 BTC sell-off by an ancient whale on July 25, this performance can be described as a "soft landing."

The essence of chip transfer is the handover of old and new capital. On-chain data shows:

• The proportion of Bitcoins from the Satoshi era (over 10 years) has dropped from 20% in 2020 to currently less than 5%.

• During the same period, institutions holding Bitcoins through ETFs have surpassed 800,000 (accounting for 4% of total supply).

This confirms the judgment of Galaxy founder Mike Novogratz: "Old money is passing the baton, and new money is taking over."

The market's calm digestion of this epic sell-off reveals four key changes:

1. Institutional liquidity acts as a "ballast": The popularity of Bitcoin spot ETFs has brought a continuous influx of institutional-level buying. The ongoing purchases by traditional financial institutions like BlackRock provide solid bottom support for the market, making the market structure vastly different from the early ecology where "massive sell-offs" would trigger crashes.

2. Professional execution of trades: Galaxy Digital matched large sell orders to multiple large buyers through OTC trading, avoiding direct impact on the public market's order book, serving as a crucial "shock absorber." This demonstrates the maturity of the crypto market infrastructure.

3. Smooth handover between old and new whales: CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out a key phenomenon: "Old whales sell to new whales." On-chain data shows that while ancient whales were selling, institutional investors were actively accumulating Bitcoins, with holdings reaching recent highs.

4. Investor sentiment is maturing: The market is shifting from panic over "who he is and what he did" to rational analysis of "why he did it and how he did it." Once it became clear that this was a professional institution conducting estate planning, market sentiment quickly turned into a positive signal of "bad news being fully priced in."

The evolution of liquidity depth is the core support. Currently, the average daily trading volume of Bitcoin spot exceeds $30 billion, and the sell-off of 80,000 BTC (about $9 billion) only accounts for three days' trading volume. Compared to the market in 2020, where a $500 million sell-off could trigger a 30% crash, today's depth is incomparable.

However, hidden dangers still exist. On-chain activity for Bitcoin continues to shrink. As mining rewards decrease, if Bitcoin is primarily used as a store of value rather than a medium of exchange, can network security be maintained solely through transaction fees? This is a fundamental contradiction between Satoshi's vision and the reality of institutionalization.

For long-term investors, the whale's exit is just the beginning of the institutionalization dividend. The continuous accumulation by institutions like BlackRock, MicroStrategy's strategy of holding over 200,000 BTC as "digital asset reserves," and Standard Chartered's prediction of a $200,000 target by the end of the year under expectations of Fed rate cuts all point to a more stable long-term bull market.

This $9 billion sell-off is, in fact, a microcosm of the power shift in the crypto world. As idealists from the Satoshi era exit with ten-thousand-fold returns, Wall Street's quantitative models are redefining Bitcoin's value logic.

For ordinary people, rather than worrying about the direction of the whales, it is better to focus on the liquidity dividends brought by institutional entry. As shown in previous Bitcoin cycles—every deep squat is to jump higher. When the rate cut window opens in September, a new wave of capital may push Bitcoin to unprecedented heights.

The market always oscillates between fear and greed, and the clear-headed investor understands: "Bull markets always grow in doubt and end in euphoria."

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