Author: 0xJeff

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

The Web3 AI sector has rapidly transitioned from a fair launch model (Virtuals) to a medium-sized, medium FDV strategy model (i.e., attention capital markets) within just one quarter.

Some Virtuals ecosystem projects and CreatorBid launch projects initially performed well, but the product appeal has gradually weakened over time. The speed of this decline is proportional to the project's scale, the timing of the team's launch, and the amount of funding raised for product development.

According to previously shared content, the core challenge faced by fair launch teams is the general lack of funding support before token issuance. Most teams cannot afford the costs of self-funding their development, and the fair launch model relies on token trading fees as the main source of revenue to drive project operations.

This does not solve the cold start problem; in reality, it often involves one or two independent developers collaborating to launch a project, creating a roadmap, releasing a demo version to spark community enthusiasm, and then issuing tokens. The token price is hyped up until the bubble bursts, and the development momentum fades away.

The only viable approach is for developers to self-fund the product launch, gradually hire a team, and ultimately release a minimum viable product (MVP).

Currently, the market shows two significant trends: the continued decline in the attractiveness of the fair launch model combined with a lack of quality AI product supply, leading to a continuous shift in funding and market attention. Medium-sized teams with an FDV between $40 million and $80 million, who have been focused on refining their products for 1-2 years, are benefiting from this. These teams have optimized their products to a nearly scalable and mature stage.

Many have spent several months conducting product testing, interviews, gathering feedback, and iterating improvements.

This trend is exacerbated by the rise of attention capital markets, where transformations in the InfoFi sector are turning noise into signals through capital commitments. The "water army" has demonstrated through their actions that they are not just here for "airdrop farming," but rather have faith in the views they express.

A good team consensus has formed, and we will soon see clearer data indicators distinguishing those who are merely exploiting the system for quick gains from those who genuinely trust the project and team and support them with real capital.

We are now witnessing the intense chemical reaction between Kaito and Cookie's initial launches.

Theoriq vs Almanak

The initial FDV of the Theoriq project is set at $75 million (a 50% discount from the previous round of venture capital valuation), with token release rules as follows: 25% unlocked at TGE + 37.5% unlocked after one year + the remaining portion released linearly over the following year.

Almanak has an FDV of $90 million, with 100% unlocked. The top 25 Almanak users can invest at a $75 million FDV.

The token terms for Theoriq are quite favorable (50% discount from the previous round of venture capital pricing), and the project team has adjusted the token allocation plan to 100% unlocked at TGE based on community feedback regarding improvements to the token generation event unlock conditions.

Currently, the FDVs of the two projects are $75 million and either $75 million or $90 million. They have a high probability of performing well, as these are Kaito and Cookie's debut projects (they need to raise the token price to attract more quality teams to join).

The products being developed by both teams have substantial value in the DeFi sector, including scalable infrastructure and various applications, aimed at attracting more users and capital on-chain.

Which project should I invest in? Why?

I am investing in both projects. I have already invested in the Almanak Legion round and will add to my investment in this ACM round.

Almanak's product is better prepared and is expected to achieve product-market fit earlier than Theoriq.

Theoriq demonstrates extraordinary strategic ambition, with the team building vertical workflows for specific clients, continuously enhancing the AlphaSwarm functionality, and showcasing technical efficiency through the infrastructure layer. Its ultimate goal is to become the preferred service discovery platform (or "app store") for meta-intelligent agent scheduling, achieving intelligent matching ecosystems that dynamically allocate the best agent clusters based on user needs.

Almanak will focus on an AI treasury system that features security, controllability, audit transparency, and verifiability: designed for institutional capital needs on one hand, and on the other, combining smart contracts with professional program agents, complemented by the most convenient interface experience, allowing creators to expand and optimize more treasury strategies.

The key to the project's short-term performance truly depends on the execution of the GTM (go-to-market strategy) at launch, market maker management capabilities, and the ability to effectively absorb selling pressure in the early stages of listing.

Overall, based on the performance of the project launches, we may witness a new round of positive appreciation trends for KAITO and COOKIE (value derived from direct percentage airdrop gains and increased allocation for stakers).

I am very excited and look forward to seeing more AI teams launching their new projects on Kaito and Cookie soon.

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