International Macroeconomic Environment Impact:

• The European Union has officially passed a new round of counter-sanctions against the United States, indicating a trend of further escalation in trade friction between the US and Europe. This move complicates the global trade situation and increases risk aversion. In this context, the cryptocurrency market, as a risk asset, may face liquidity outflow pressure in the short term.

• The European Central Bank announced that it will maintain its main interest rates, sending a signal of policy stability, which helps stabilize financial liquidity in the Eurozone. Although this has a certain mitigating effect on crypto assets, it cannot fundamentally reverse the phase of pressure they are currently experiencing.

• Today, there will be a concentrated expiration of Bitcoin options worth up to $12.3 billion. Large-scale fund settlements may trigger significant volatility at this sensitive market juncture, and investors need to closely guard against potential risks of short-term price fluctuations.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

Currently, Bitcoin is still in a high-level range-bound structure, oscillating around the 120K level. This position continues to act as a price ceiling, making it a prime area for shorting on rallies. Although there have been occasional signs of rebound in local candlesticks, the overall technical pattern has failed, with three consecutive daily bearish candles indicating that the upward trend has been disrupted.

The 7-day moving average has crossed below the 14-day moving average, forming a clear death cross signal. The daily structure has broken below the blue upward trend support, losing the critical level of 116K. If today's daily close confirms a drop below 116K, it will signal the establishment of a phase of bearish trend.

On the 4-hour chart, there were multiple downward tests yesterday accompanied by significant long lower shadows to entice buyers, but ultimately dominated by a large bearish candle, indicating that trapped positions are gradually being released. Today's strategy remains focused on shorting at high levels, with resistance observed in the 117.5K-118.5K range and support at 115.5K-114.5K.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum performed a secondary rebound yesterday as expected, rising to a high of $3770, slightly exceeding the preset resistance level of $3720, but the overall trend remains consistent with predictions. From a structural perspective, this rebound is seen as a bait for buyers, clearly defining the short-term top area around 3750.

The daily chart for ETH continues to build a weak downward channel, with highs consistently declining. If the key support level of 3500 is effectively breached, it will initiate a new round of downward trend. The 4-hour chart has recorded a significant bearish candle, indicating strong short-term weakness. Today's strategy suggests looking for shorting opportunities around the 3640-3680 resistance level, with support locked in at 3540-3500.

Altcoin Sector

This round of altcoin movements has accurately avoided peaks, with some tokens experiencing over a 30% deep adjustment, and some coins even nearing a 50% decline. Currently, Bitcoin has effectively broken below the upward trend line and the 116K support point, clearly entering a bearish phase. In this context, the risks for altcoins have further intensified.

Investors should be wary of "faith traps," avoiding fantasies of averaging down or holding onto high positions with the excuse that "the bull market will eventually return." For speculative coins, a firm strategy of taking profits and timely liquidation is the core approach to cope with extreme volatility. At this stage, maintaining a cash position and observing the market is the best preparation for seizing the next opportunity.

📌 Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice, and the views expressed are for reference only. The volatility of digital assets is severe; caution is advised when entering the market, and risks are borne by the investor.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。