Opportunities for retail investors are running out.

Written by: Ada, Deep Tide TechFlow

"The bull market is here, but why is every group so quiet?" netizen Tongxin Cheese raised a question in the Opensky community group.

"Because of being in cash + short positions," replied group member Niner.

For Niner, who has experienced the last bull and bear markets, this bull market should have been a good time to make a profit, but Niner admitted that he "hasn't made any money" in this market.

Similar to Niner's situation is full-time trader Johnny, who claims, "I haven't made any money since Trump tweeted."

There are many others in situations like Niner and Johnny. Mark, a partner at Wagmi Capital, stated in an interview that "90% of retail investors are not making money" in this bull market.

Although Niner hasn't made money yet, he has adjusted his investment strategy in a timely manner. "In the last cycle, I mainly held on, but this time I am mainly doing swing trading, and because many new things are coming out, I need to keep learning, and the pace is much faster."

Niner's adjustments were relatively timely, but most people are still slow to react.

"The investment logic this time is different from before, but most retail investors have not realized it," KOL Hippo said in an interview.

With institutional funds pouring into the cryptocurrency market, mainstream coins are repeatedly hitting historical highs. Whether in terms of funding, acceptance of technology and narratives, or participation levels, this is no longer a "retail-friendly" market. Some believe that the dividend period for retail investors in cryptocurrency is about to end, and this cycle may be the last one for retail investors.

Based on this, Deep Tide TechFlow interviewed several deep participants in the cryptocurrency market, including well-known KOLs, private equity fund partners, quantitative traders, and individual investors, to analyze this bull market from their respective perspectives, aiming to present a diversified view of the crypto landscape.

A Different Crypto Bull Market

Hippo, who entered the crypto space in 2016, is very familiar with the cryptocurrency market. During the interview, he spoke clearly and loudly, slowly sharing his observations about this bull market: "This is no longer a market where everything rises together. If the previous bull markets were consensus-driven, this bull market has taken a completely different path under various policies, capital, and factional divisions."

Hippo has a military background and worked in commercial real estate investment before entering cryptocurrency. These experiences have shaped his bold yet cautious investment style. After experiencing several bull and bear markets, he said, "I have always been thinking about what truly valuable things exist in this industry, and what assets can withstand bull and bear markets?"

If the previous market was not clear enough, this round of market conditions has gradually led Hippo to find answers.

"In fact, I have been thinking about this for a long time, and now I realize that this industry is essentially a financial internet. Whether it's lending, trading, staking, or the currently popular tokenization of US stocks and stablecoins, they are all fundamentally centered around finance and require a complete financial infrastructure and system," Hippo said. "Based on this thinking, I believe Ethereum still has great potential, so I am mainly focusing on Ethereum and DeFi assets."

In Hippo's view, the starting point of this bull market began with BlackRock officially passing the Bitcoin ETF, followed by a short-term adjustment, and then entering the second phase of the bull market after the U.S. passed the "Great American Beautiful Act," which is expected to peak in November.

However, Mark has a different opinion.

He stated that the surge in Memecoins in the second half of last year was the starting point of this market, representing the first half of the bull market. The second half stems from the rise of Ethereum two weeks ago, which has sparked a new wave of market activity. He expects the market to reach its peak by September.

"In 2017, it was the ICO bull market, followed by the altcoin bull market, but this round is clearly different because everyone has become disillusioned; many concepts and stories have been debunked, leaving only financial applications. So even if Ethereum rises sharply, it hasn't yet broken its historical high, and altcoins have only seen localized increases," Mark said.

Another market veteran is quantitative trader Chenghua. He now runs his own quantitative trading studio, primarily focusing on arbitrage trading in cryptocurrencies.

Chenghua noticed different conditions early in this market: in previous cycles, retail funds dominated, and small coins surged. However, this time, more mainstream funds have entered, flowing into Bitcoin and other mainstream coins.

Yet, he still got "washed out." Although he still holds Bitcoin, he sold most of it when Bitcoin just broke $100,000 and also switched positions at the worst time for Ethereum, missing its recovery moment. Despite being an industry veteran, accurately timing the market rhythm is still not an easy task for retail investors.

Where Are the Opportunities for Retail Investors?

The most direct feeling for full-time trader Johnny in this bull market is: "There are too many coins, the gameplay is not innovative, liquidity is insufficient, and it's becoming increasingly difficult for retail investors to make money."

In the last bull market, Johnny entered the crypto space with the hype of Elon Musk's Dogecoin and made a fortune in the rising market. "At that time, I didn't even know what candlesticks were, but I still made money," Johnny recalled.

But those good days are long gone.

"The previous investment strategies are no longer applicable in this round," Johnny said. "I used to like to 'hold on' or buy whatever others recommended. But now I have to learn to build a trading system that suits me."

Even so, "the upward potential of altcoins is not as great as before; the market's capital and technical thresholds are getting higher, and the profit effect is diminishing," Johnny said.

So, in this bull market, why is it difficult for retail investors to make money? Where are the opportunities for retail investors?

In Mark's view, retail investors are struggling to make money in this bull market for two main reasons.

First, most retail investors have not transitioned from the logic of the previous bull market and still mainly hold altcoins instead of mainstream coins.

Second, due to frequent position changes. "Chasing highs and cutting losses is a common trait of retail investors and a major enemy of making money," Mark said.

Mark believes the main opportunities in this bull market lie in mainstream coins and Memecoins. However, with recent improvements in liquidity, he has also discovered a new opportunity: "Recently, new coins launched on Binance have seen several times increases, unlike before when they would be halved." He said, "So I made an adjustment: the bulk of my funds are still in Ethereum, but I will allocate a small portion to chase new coins for high returns."

"But actually, there aren't many opportunities left for retail investors," Mark is rather pessimistic. He believes that the future cryptocurrency market will trend towards being like the U.S. stock market, with mainstream coins being dominated by institutional funds, leaving retail investors with only the Memecoin market. However, to make money in the Memecoin market, one needs to be smart, have time, and energy, which will filter out some unqualified investors; likely only 10% of people can make money in the Memecoin market.

Hippo shares Mark's views but believes that in addition to mainstream coins and Memecoins, attention can also be paid to some coins derived from trading.

Because projects related to trading are useful and cannot be bypassed in the market; since they cannot be bypassed, they can survive, making it easier to form consensus.

"For retail investors, the first adjustment needed is the mindset, which is to give up the fantasy of getting rich quickly," Hippo said. "In the future, there may not be opportunities for dozens or hundreds of times returns on altcoins, but there are still opportunities in mainstream coins, which will likely see a 3-5 times increase in each cycle. Then there's the focus on Memecoins; new Memecoins will emerge in every round, and buying those phenomenal Memecoins will definitely yield significant returns."

In the last round, there were some low-risk, retail-friendly projects with low thresholds, such as new coin offerings and inscriptions, but such opportunities are already scarce in this round.

"Either do quantitative trading like me, which has a threshold but still carries lower risk," Chenghua said. "I actually think the opportunity in Bitcoin is relatively fair for anyone; it depends on whether one can seize it. Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy that I find relatively easy to execute; as long as the time frame is extended, it is likely to yield good returns."

Is the Dividend Period for Retail Investors in Cryptocurrency About to Disappear?

In fact, during the last cycle, with the entry of some institutional funds, there were already voices saying that it was the last cryptocurrency cycle for retail investors.

Although retail investors are still participating in this bull market, this round has seen even more "institutionalization."

The total AUM of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $137.4 billion by July 2025, with over 400 institutions investing in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, including traditional giants like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.

Publicly listed companies globally hold 944,000 BTC, accounting for 4.8% of the circulating supply, with an increase of about 131,000 BTC in a single quarter.

The scale of ETH liquid staking (LSD) products on platforms like Coinbase and Binance has surged, with institutions packaging ETH's yield attributes as fixed-income instruments.

All of the above data indicates that the cryptocurrency market is no longer a playground for retail investors.

Some media reports state that the $120,000 Bitcoin was merely a "capital feast without retail investors." On that day, "there were no retail investors 'getting rich overnight' on social media, only BlackRock's ETF subscription orders rolling in silently at 13 per second."

These scenes completely align with Mark's expectations. "I feel that the golden age for retail investors to make money has passed; it was clearly the last window period in the second half of last year," he said.

In fact, he has already taken some profits and shifted his investments to the A-shares.

"But I won't completely exit; I believe the Meme market opportunities will always exist, and new things will continue to emerge," Mark plans.

In contrast, Niner is more optimistic. She stated that she will continue to immerse herself in this market because she feels "the opportunities to make big money are increasingly shifting towards retail investors."

"Many people have been saying it's the last cycle for a long time. But I believe the period of wild growth has passed, and now is the time for good opportunities to emerge," Niner said. "I won't leave; I want to be a true Alpha player."

Also optimistic is Hippo. He believes the market is developing in a more orderly and regulated direction, which means lower risk and higher returns for retail investors.

"With institutional funds entering, as long as you follow the trend of investing in mainstream coins, you can still achieve relatively good returns. The most important thing is that this market is controllable, and the risks have been significantly reduced," Hippo said. "At the low point of the cycle, Bitcoin may pull back 50%-70%, but in a bull market, it can rise several times. As long as you time it right and manage expectations, investing in Bitcoin and other mainstream coins may be the easiest way for retail investors to make money."

For Hippo, who has been deeply involved in the cryptocurrency field for nine years, his relationship with this market is like "fish and water"—"I have navigated this market with ease and have never thought about leaving. Moreover, I believe the market opportunities for retail investors have always been there."

Perhaps, whether optimistic or pessimistic, once someone has immersed themselves in this market, it is hard to easily say goodbye. What truly matters is not whether the market provides opportunities, but whether one has the ability to learn alongside the market, the vision to discover opportunities, and the execution power to seize them.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。