Author: Bao Yilong, Wall Street Insights

Just days after federal regulators dropped their investigation, Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction market platforms, quickly took action to pave the way for its return to the critical U.S. market by acquiring a U.S.-licensed exchange.

On July 21, Polymarket announced the acquisition of the Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX and its affiliated clearinghouse QC Clearing (collectively referred to as QCEX) for $112 million. Polymarket's founder and CEO Shayne Coplan stated that this acquisition is an important step toward expanding into the U.S. market and will provide the critical infrastructure needed for the platform's compliant operations in the U.S.

This move is significant for Polymarket. Although the platform is popular worldwide and has attracted approximately $6 billion in trading volume so far this year, its services have been closed to U.S. users since 2022. By acquiring QCEX, Polymarket gains a regulated entity to offer contract trading within the U.S., providing a compliant pathway to extend its large global user base into the U.S. market.

The timing of this deal is particularly noteworthy. Just days earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had concluded an investigation into Polymarket. This investigation, which began in November after Trump's election victory, aimed to determine whether the platform provided trading opportunities for U.S. users. The conclusion of the investigation is seen as a key prerequisite for Polymarket's strategic layout in the U.S. market.

Acquisition of QCX Secures U.S. Operating License

The acquisition of QCEX is central to Polymarket's strategy for returning to the U.S. market. U.S. regulators have made it clear that prediction markets are allowed to operate, provided they do so on licensed platforms. QCEX precisely offers Polymarket this crucial compliance license.

Headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, QCEX is an emerging regulated exchange that submitted its license application to the CFTC in June 2022 and officially received its contract market operating license in early July this year.

This means that Polymarket is acquiring a brand new, clean licensed entity that can be directly used to deploy its business. Coplan added on Monday:

The acquisition lays the foundation for Polymarket to come back home—returning to the U.S. as a fully regulated and compliant platform, allowing Americans to trade their views.

Regarding this collaboration, QCEX founder Sergei Dobrovolskii stated:

Coplan has created a cultural phenomenon at Polymarket. I am excited to merge our companies and leverage our license, technology, and expertise in retail trading to help Polymarket realize its full potential.

Notably, Polymarket announced a partnership with Musk's X platform in June, stating that X's Grok chatbot would provide users with "contextual, data-driven insights."

U.S. Policy Environment Becoming More Friendly

Before this acquisition, Polymarket had just emerged from a significant regulatory uncertainty.

Polymarket gained immense popularity before the U.S. presidential election in November, attracting billions of dollars in trading volume. The company stated that so far this year, global users have engaged in approximately $6 billion in prediction trading related to political developments, pop culture events, and sports.

However, just days after Trump's election victory, the DOJ and CFTC launched an investigation into the platform, focusing on whether it provided gambling services to individuals within the U.S. As part of the investigation, the FBI raided Coplan's residence in November. However, Coplan publicly stated this month that the investigation has concluded.

This outcome has cleared legal obstacles for the company's next steps in expansion and directly facilitated Polymarket's swift move to acquire QCEX.

In fact, the Trump administration has shown a more open stance toward prediction market gambling. Brian Quintenz, who was nominated by Trump to chair the CFTC, previously served on the board of Kalshi, a competitor of Polymarket, while Donald Trump Jr. served as an advisor to Kalshi.

Additionally, Kalshi won a court ruling last year that allowed users to bet on prediction outcomes, which is seen as a significant victory for the industry.

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