On the evening of July 16, 2025, the 177th Uweb live sharing session was held in a lively atmosphere, hosted by Uweb Principal Yu Jianing, with special guest Bit Factory Director providing in-depth analysis. This session focused on three major themes: Weekly Report Analysis, Overview of RWA Development in Hong Kong, and U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain: Purpose, Challenges, and Impact, revealing wealth codes and investment opportunities for Web3 investors by concentrating on the future of Bitcoin, the RWA track, the stablecoin market, compliant exchanges in Hong Kong, and the changing logic of altcoins. The following is a summary of the live broadcast highlights from a media perspective, divided into three main topics, each generating three to four subtopics around core content, presenting the latest trends in the Web3 market.
- Weekly Report Analysis
Bitcoin Airdrops and Market Vitality
This live session announced that Bitcoin airdrops for this month and previous ones (including winners and promoter shares) will be settled at the end of the month, with a low frequency of airdrops, encouraging viewers to share the live room link to participate and enhance interactivity. In terms of the market, Bitcoin has broken historical highs and entered a main upward wave phase, with market sentiment soaring. Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin, while XRP, Solana, and some altcoins (like MK) have shown active performance, but the overall rise of altcoins is limited, with insufficient liquidity transmission, indicating that funds are more inclined towards mainstream coins and RWA-related assets. Bit Factory Director pointed out that although the Web3 circle is "hot outside but cold inside," some investors are feeling low due to previous confidence setbacks, traditional financial funds are accelerating inflow, and Web3 remains the area with the greatest potential for wealth growth.
On-chain and Off-chain Data Insights
On-chain data shows that holders who have held for 155 days sold 18,000 BTC, with holders over a year starting to distribute, and profit-taking steadily increasing. The UTXO energy band reveals a chip vacuum area at $114,000-$115,000, indicating a potential opportunity for building positions during a pullback; the global momentum radar shows that investor confidence in the Americas and Asia is recovering, while Europe remains cautious, limiting the upside, with a top estimate of $140,000-$150,000, and an optimistic scenario potentially higher. Off-chain data indicates that this week, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.3 billion, with July rate cut expectations collapsing, and a 47% probability of a rate cut in September. The greed index stands at 61%, indicating a rational market, with trading volume and funding rates not overheated, and the main upward wave is in its early oscillation phase. Bit Factory Director suggests that those holding cash should moderately allocate BTC, be cautiously optimistic about altcoins, and remain vigilant about liquidity and macro risks, noting that this is for academic discussion only.
Future of Bitcoin and Investment Strategies
Bit Factory Director analyzed the historical patterns of Bitcoin halving cycles, noting that each time it has increased about 20 times. The current cycle (after the April 2024 halving) started from a low of $15,500, with a theoretical high of $300,000, currently around $100,000, leaving three times the space, and potentially reaching $1 million in the long term, surpassing gold's $26 trillion market value. In the short term, a pullback to $100,000 is possible, and he recommends dollar-cost averaging, advising against liquidating or being bearish. In contrast, the RWA track offers better cost-effectiveness, with RWA-related targets in Hong Kong and U.S. stocks (like Longxin Group up 3 times, Walnut Capital up 10 times) significantly outperforming Bitcoin, making it suitable for new entrants. RWA and Bitcoin are not strongly correlated, but market sentiment tends to be "when one thrives, all thrive; when one suffers, all suffer." If Bitcoin crashes, RWA stocks may pull back 20%-30%, but due to their independent value, they will not collapse systematically.
Overview of RWA Development in Hong Kong
RWA: The Wealth Code of Web3
RWA (Real World Assets) lowers investment thresholds and enhances liquidity through blockchain tokenization, hailed as the wealth code of Web3, covering assets such as Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks, and real estate trusts, with a market size expected to reach $10 trillion by 2025. Bit Factory Director introduced its core features: providing Mini IPO financing channels for unlisted companies, transparent on-chain transactions, reducing operational costs by 30%, and covering global retail investors. Current market sentiment is "coins soar, RWA rises," with significant increases in Longxin Group (3 times) and Walnut Capital (10 times), far exceeding Bitcoin, attracting substantial capital attention.
RWA Application Cases and Value
Taking Longxin Group as an example, on August 28, 2024, it completed the first domestic RWA for new energy charging piles in cooperation with Ant Group, with the asset chain in the mainland and the trading chain in Hong Kong. UBS issued tokens, providing investors with fixed returns, while Longxin expanded its charging pile infrastructure, with stock prices rising from 7.27 HKD to 21 HKD (peaking at 26 HKD), increasing its market value to over 20 billion. Other cases include Taiji Capital's real estate STO raising 100 million HKD, Pacific Insurance's dollar currency fund tokenization, and the Xunyin Nuclear Power Plant issuing tokens via the Conflux chain. Bit Factory Director pointed out that listed companies primarily use RWA to boost stock prices while also raising funds, similar to the "Dragon One" effect, significantly enhancing market value.
Pathways for Retail Investors to Invest in RWA
Retail investors find it challenging to directly participate in RWA issuance but can purchase stocks of related listed companies in Hong Kong and the U.S. to share in the dividends, such as Walnut Capital (stock price rising from 0.184 HKD to 1.49 HKD, 8 times) and Victory Securities (providing virtual asset accounts supporting USDT and HKD exchanges). Bit Factory Director suggests paying attention to rebound targets like Hainan Huatie and Yunlong Yatu, adding them to watchlists to capture limit-up opportunities; or participating in Hong Kong IPOs (like Mixue Ice City), where a 500,000 account can earn 10,000-30,000 HKD in risk-free returns monthly. Investors should focus on project compliance and team backgrounds to avoid blindly chasing highs.
Future Trends of RWA in Hong Kong
Hong Kong's RWA is still in the pilot phase, with weak liquidity, requiring continuous opening of channels between the mainland and Hong Kong to enhance trading activity. Bit Factory Director believes that RWA, similar to Mini IPOs, will provide more financing channels for small and medium-sized enterprises, potentially connecting mainland assets with Web3 in the long term, offering immense potential. The core lies in asset quality, and investors should pay attention to leading institutions (like Ant Group, Haskey) and compliance licenses (like License No. 7). Compared to the more mature U.S. stock market, Hong Kong's RWA development is slightly behind, but both share similarities in reconstructing the asset management market through tokenization.
U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain: Purpose, Challenges, and Impact
Core Purpose of U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain
The purpose of U.S. stocks on the blockchain is to achieve securities tokenization through blockchain technology, reconstructing the $20 trillion asset management market. Bit Factory Director pointed out that its main objectives include: enabling 5×24 or even 7×24 trading, breaking the 6.5-hour limit of the New York Stock Exchange; lowering investment thresholds, such as reducing Nvidia stock from tens of thousands of dollars to $0.5; supporting non-standard assets (like private equity, real estate trusts) on-chain, with market potential reaching $10 trillion; and compelling traditional brokerages to extend trading hours or lower thresholds. U.S. stocks on the blockchain provide more flexible investment channels for retail and institutional investors, attracting global capital.
Challenges of U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain
U.S. stocks on the blockchain face multiple challenges: compliance challenges must meet regulatory frameworks like the SEC, with Robinhood fined for its pilot; on-chain tokens lack traditional shareholder voting rights or dividend rights, leading to potential legal risks if listed companies refuse to recognize them; unlisted equity (like Open AI) on-chain may underestimate valuations, affecting subsequent IPOs; while U.S. stocks are closed on weekends, on-chain contracts trade 24 hours, leading to price deviations and increasing uncontrollable risks. Bit Factory Director emphasized that the market needs to self-adjust to balance these challenges.
Models and Beneficiaries of U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain
U.S. stocks on the blockchain are divided into synthetic tokens (derivatives based on market data, suitable for high-risk preferences, with smaller fluctuations) and physical-type tokens (1:1 asset reserves, suitable for stable investors). Exchanges like Bitget and Bybit earn fees by promoting contracts. Beneficiaries include Coinbase, Robinhood (pilot for unlisted equity like Open AI), Haitou Exchange (on-chain Apple and Tesla stocks), and Ethereum holders; traditional brokerages like Goldman Sachs are impacted by competitive pressure. Bit Factory Director noted that Robinhood's stock price has continued to rise through tokenization pilots, demonstrating market potential.
Impact of U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain on Web3
In the short term, U.S. stocks on the blockchain exert pressure on altcoins, as retail investors may shift towards less volatile U.S. stock token contracts (like Tesla, Nvidia), eliminating tail-end projects and forcing value consolidation. In the long term, U.S. stocks on the blockchain will expand the Web3 market size, attracting traditional financial users (like cross-border traders) into the market, activating the DeFi ecosystem, and increasing trading volumes of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bit Factory Director believes that U.S. stocks on the blockchain will promote the integration of real assets with the crypto world, bringing new opportunities to the industry.
Other Key Topics
Stablecoin Market Size and Competition
Bit Factory Director predicts that the stablecoin market will grow from the current $260 billion to $3.5 trillion within five years, a tenfold increase, driven by cross-border payment and DeFi demand. USDC is more trusted by institutions due to its 100% dollar peg and monthly audit transparency, while USDT has lower transparency but may enhance compliance through bank acquisitions. Trump USD One, PayPal PYUSD, and potential government stablecoins may eat into the market, necessitating caution regarding tightening regulations and custodial bank risks. Circle (the issuer of USDC) has a market value of $45 billion, with a reasonable short-term stock price of $140-180, a mid-term increase of 40%-100%, and a long-term potential of up to 7 times, with its moat lying in compliance and ecological advantages.
Investment Opportunities in Compliant Exchanges in Hong Kong
Compliant exchanges in Hong Kong, such as SHK (Victory Securities, leaning towards traditional finance), OSL (licensed digital asset platform, strong Web3 attributes), Spark Technology, and OKLink (deeply related to Web3, possibly reverse merging with U.S. stocks), each have their unique characteristics. Bit Factory Director suggests diversifying investments among companies in the same track, focusing on rebound targets, and prioritizing those with lower increases (like OKLink). If the industry rises overall, additional positions can be added. If Bitcoin crashes, related stocks may pull back 20%-30%, necessitating attention to fundamentals.
Shift in Altcoin Logic
The U.S. stocks on the blockchain change the logic of altcoins, with traditional hundredfold coins decreasing, and funds shifting towards Hong Kong and U.S. tokenization (like Walnut Capital rising 10 times) or ground-promotion projects (like GB rising 10 times, CoinUp raising 200 million). Bit Factory Director advises retail investors to participate in high-risk projects with an open mind and small amounts, paying attention to team backgrounds (like connections to listed companies) and being wary of risks of capital flight. Early participants may achieve high returns, but should avoid chasing highs.
The 177th Uweb live broadcast reveals new investment directions in Web3: RWA and U.S. stocks on the blockchain become high-return tracks, with Bitcoin expected to rise to $150,000-$300,000 in the long term, recommending dollar-cost averaging; RWA reconstructs the asset management market, with significant increases in Longxin Group and Walnut Capital; U.S. stocks on the blockchain lower thresholds and activate DeFi; the stablecoin market may reach $3.5 trillion in five years; and compliant exchanges in Hong Kong have rebound potential. Investors should diversify their allocations, focus on fundamentals, and leverage Uweb courses to seize dividends. The live broadcast replay can be viewed on Xiaohongshu, and internal recommendations need to be obtained through WeChat from Teacher Zhao Yumei.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
