Author: VirtualBacon

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

PANews Note: The content of the article reflects the author's personal views and is not investment advice. DYOR.

Bitcoin has reached a historic high of $123,000, but when will altcoins rally?

I have traced back the last three breakout phases of Bitcoin to find patterns, and now the signals have finally reappeared.

What will happen next for ETH, SOL, XRP, and other mainstream coins?

Bitcoin is currently in a price discovery phase, but altcoin momentum is stagnant, and large-cap coins have yet to start.

Let's see what happens after the market breaks out.

Since mid-2023, every time Bitcoin has a breakout, it triggers a collective rebound in altcoins:

• $30,000 → $44,000
• $45,000 → $71,000
• $71,000 → $105,000 (after Trump's election victory)

After each breakout, altcoins experience a 3-5 week explosive window, followed by Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase, regaining dominance, and the gains of altcoins being eroded.

Now, we are in a similar scenario:

Bitcoin has broken through the $107,000 resistance level, currently rising to $123,000, and may challenge the $150,000 mark.

If historical patterns hold, we are at the starting point of a new altcoin season.

But caution is warranted: this is not a half-year-long altcoin frenzy, but a short sprint.

Bitcoin's dominance has not fallen below key levels, so this is not a comprehensive altcoin season.

If Bitcoin's dominance does not continue to rise, altcoins will still increase. This is exactly what happened in the last two rounds.

The trends of the three major mainstream coins, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, show significant divergence.

Ethereum has lagged significantly behind Bitcoin by the end of 2023, but each subsequent pullback has seen higher lows.

Solana initially led strongly, but its momentum is now close to stagnation.

XRP initially performed weakly but saw explosive growth after last year's U.S. elections.

Signs of Capital Rotation Are Obvious

A clear current phenomenon is that payment tokens have taken the lead:

XRP, XLM, HBAR, IOTA, ALGO, XDC

"Bank tokens" that comply with ISO20022 standards are the first to attract capital.

Large-cap coins that have not yet started will be my focus:

• BNB: Approaching historical cycle lows against BTC
• LINK: Continues to bleed but fundamentals remain strong
• ADA: Building a long-term double bottom pattern
• TRX: Ready to take off
• DOGE: Always tends to explode during Bitcoin breakout cycles

These are the core rotation targets.

If Solana starts to gain capital favor, its ecosystem tokens are worth watching:

BONK has surged 89%, and PENGU has become a favorite meme in the crypto Twitter circle.

Layer 1 clones are taking the baton: Sui, Aptos, AVAX (which have not started since November 2023).

TAO and PEPE performed brilliantly in 2023:

• TAO: Increased 14 times in 5 months
• PEPE: Increased 6.6 times against BTC in 3 months

They exhibited strong narratives during Bitcoin's rise; if a new "shiny narrative" emerges, we need to act decisively.

What Is My Current Trading Plan?

• Focus on blue-chip tokens
• Look for coins that have not yet started
• Switch to strong narratives when leading projects take off
• Temporarily avoid small-cap coins, as they are not worth the risk

Capital rotation is key; do not blindly chase after prices.

Altcoins may welcome a strong cycle lasting 1 to 2 months, but history always warns: take profits when you can, and do not be greedy.

If Bitcoin surges to $150,000, the top 20 coins by market cap may collectively rise, and some assets may see significant catch-up rallies.

Operate rationally, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon stagnant assets.

Maintain a bullish mindset, but do not fall into blind euphoria. Keep a close eye on Bitcoin's dominance and monitor BTC trading pair activity.

Although this is not a frenzy cycle like in 2017 or 2021, it is still a solid and reliable window period. Small-cap coins will eventually rotate, but we must wait for the right timing.

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