Looking ahead, as the pace of policy advancement accelerates, the foundation for the market's continued strength becomes increasingly solid.
Written by: HashKey Group Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding
On July 14, Bitcoin (BTC) price strongly broke through the $120,000 threshold, setting a new historical high. In this round of increase, active on-site funds and off-site incremental funds formed a dual resonance, breaking through the "Trump bottom" range, significantly warming market bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Breaks Key Range, Fund and Policy Resonance Drives Continued Upward Trend
This week, Bitcoin has accumulated a 9.08% increase, not only setting a new historical high and breaking through the $120,000 mark but also breaking through the "Trump bottom" — the oscillation consolidation range of $90,000 to $110,000 formed since last November. On-chain data shows that over 30% of Bitcoin has been transferred within this range, which has long been regarded as a dense area for institutional accumulation and a pricing anchor for policy expectations.
This breakthrough not only has technical significance but also establishes a market consensus on Bitcoin gradually becoming a strategic asset for the United States at a macro level. Especially in the context of former President Trump repeatedly expressing support for Bitcoin and advocating for the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve, this price range has evolved into a symbol of policy signals. Once this area is effectively crossed, it indicates that the market structure has entered a new upward phase.
Institutional Allocation Continues to Strengthen, ETF and Mainstream Assets Resonance Evolves
The core driving force of this round of market activity comes from deep changes in the funding structure. On the on-site side, the frequency of large transactions at major exchanges has significantly increased, the proportion of HODLers continues to rise, the chip locking effect has strengthened, and market selling pressure has significantly eased. At the same time, ETF funds continue to see net inflows, providing solid off-site support for the market. According to public data, as of now, Bitcoin-related ETFs have accumulated a net inflow of $1.44 billion this month, with the overall management scale surpassing $51 billion, becoming an important driving force for price stability.
The maturity of the ETF channel has also led to the gradual entry of traditional institutional funds. Long-term funds, including pensions and mutual funds, are allocating Bitcoin through compliant channels, further enhancing the structural stability of the market, reducing volatility, and broadening the mainstream acceptance of the asset.
Technical Structure is Robust, Trend Continuity is Strong, Short-term Volatility is Controllable
Since breaking through the $100,000 threshold, Bitcoin's overall trend has remained strong. After the $110,000 threshold was broken with increased volume, the $120,000 mark was also conquered due to the continued expansion of trading volume, indicating the persistence of a bullish dominance pattern. Currently, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a relatively high level, there are no obvious overbought signals, and the moving average system is clearly arranged, with the overall technical structure still supporting an upward trend.
In the short term, the market may still experience pullbacks, especially with attention needed on some funds taking profits, as well as uncertainties brought about by geopolitical conflicts, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and the U.S. elections. In this context, it is recommended that investors maintain flexible positions, reasonably control risks, and continue to pay attention to the medium-term trend, extending or adjusting the rhythm.
Future Outlook: Regulatory Push Accelerates, Foundation for Continued Market Strength Becomes More Solid
Looking ahead, as the pace of policy advancement accelerates, the foundation for the market's continued strength becomes increasingly solid. The ongoing "U.S. Cryptocurrency Week" serves as an important window for policy implementation. Three key bills, including stablecoin regulation, regulatory function division, and restrictions on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), have entered the House of Representatives for review and are expected to complete voting within this week. Previously, the "GENIUS Act" was passed with a high vote in the Senate, clarifying the 1:1 reserve requirement for stablecoins and federal audit requirements, providing important support for institutional fund inflows and payment scenario expansion.
The substantial progress in policy advancement provides clear institutional support for Bitcoin's breakthrough of $120,000 and further boosts market confidence in the path toward compliance and mainstream acceptance. The current market activity is not only a technical breakthrough but also a concentrated reflection of global capital re-evaluating the long-term value of crypto assets.
In the short term, attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation and market adjustment volatility, but in the medium to long term, the mainstreaming of crypto assets has moved from trend judgment to realization phase, and the next round of market breakthroughs may come earlier and faster than market expectations.
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