"I once went without much sleep for five or six days during the May 1st holiday, spending 20 hours a day watching the market, and ended up losing several million dollars. Losses can truly refine your character. If your U is still in your account, before it truly changes your life, your positions are still not closed."
In the cryptocurrency arena, filled with myths of wealth creation and instant bankruptcy, a post-95 trader with the ID "If I Don't Understand" has written his own legend through wisdom and hard work—transitioning from traditional trade to the crypto world, reaching the top of the contract leaderboard in nine months, and earning tens of millions of dollars. He provides a powerful and valuable reference for countless participants navigating the market.
Recently, "If I Don't Understand" (@butaidongjiaoyi) was invited to the OKX Singapore office for a face-to-face discussion with host Mia (@mia_okx). This article summarizes the core dialogue.
From Traditional Trade to the Crypto World: From "Mining Millions" to "Returning to Square One Overnight"
Born in 1996, "If I Don't Understand" was initially not a trader but an entrepreneur running an Amazon store in cross-border e-commerce. In 2020, the frenzy of SHIB and the rise of AXS (Axie Infinity) opened a crack for him to glimpse the magic of the crypto world. From then on, his life trajectory became closely linked to this 24-hour, sleepless market.
Unlike many impulsive speculators, his entry was marked by the rigor and diligence of an industrialist. During the day, he managed the daily operations of his store; from 7 PM to 2 AM, he devoted himself entirely to researching on-chain projects. His starting capital was minimal—he only used 7,000 RMB to buy AXS but unexpectedly gained several times the return, opening the door to a new world.
After tasting success, "If I Don't Understand" officially embarked on his "on-chain gold mining" journey with a principal of about 30,000 to 50,000 RMB. He accurately seized the GameFi wave of 2021, an era that gamified DeFi financial models. He did not settle for a superficial understanding but spent months playing nearly all GameFi projects on the market, deeply studying their economic models and community dynamics. This extreme dedication brought substantial rewards. In projects like Radio Caca, BinaryX, Cryptominers, and Farmer World, he turned tens of thousands of RMB into his first million through strategic investments. This windfall was not just an accumulation of wealth but also his first significant victory in validating his logic through in-depth research.
However, holding several million in cash changed his mindset as a young person who had just graduated two or three years prior. In May 2022, the market underwent a drastic change, with Ethereum plummeting from $3,700 to $800, a drop even more severe than the "519 Black Swan" event. Faced with market trends, he kept increasing his positions, betting on a rebound, trying to use capital to fight against the downward tide of the market, with predictable results. In less than two months, his asset position retraced over 95%, and millions in cash nearly evaporated, returning him to square one overnight. This explosive loss became the most profound and painful lesson of his trading career.
"Only by working harder in reality can we truly bring liquidity to Web3." After experiencing a liquidation, he did not wallow in despair but chose to re-enter internet entrepreneurship. Relying on the stable income from his main business, he gradually accumulated capital and ultimately made a comeback. When re-entering the blockchain market, he adhered to a core principle: invest with sufficient net worth, with entry capital at least in the tens of thousands of RMB, and avoid debt, as it would alter the investment mindset.
"One must respect the market; nothing is impossible." From then on, his trading style underwent a complete transformation—no longer guessing market tops and bottoms, but focusing on making money through rigorous strategies and clear logic, while calmly accepting all possible market scenarios. Awakening from pain, "If I Don't Understand" began a true metamorphosis. He seized the BRC-20 inscriptions and the subsequent MEME coin wave in 2023, achieving a second remarkable capital accumulation and obtaining his first A8 result. This time, he was no longer the blindly confident gambler but a hunter with clear strategies and tight logic. His largest on-chain profit came when others were shorting; he went long on Neiro. At the same time, he also positioned himself in Neiro, generating about 5 million dollars in profit just from the spot market. Reflecting on his initial buying motivation, it was not purely based on short-term arbitrage expectations, but rather his admiration for the community consensus represented by Neiro.
"Why did I choose to go long on it? Because when evaluating each trade, I refer to some 'benchmark assets.' At that time, projects like BONK and BOME, which launched on spot markets, had FDVs (Fully Diluted Valuation) around 1 billion dollars, with some even higher, reaching 2 billion or 3 billion. So, for a project like Neiro, which has a decent IP, I believed it could potentially reach a similar benchmark valuation. Therefore, after it launched, even though many chose to short, I remained steadfast in going long, and indeed, I captured its rise to a 1 billion dollar valuation. This was my first significant profit in the MEME sector," he shared. After that, he shorted PNUT and TRUMP, achieving even more results.
Public data shows that in the past nine months, his contract trading profits exceeded 10 million dollars. In June of this year, a single ETH trade reached a profit of 7.5 million dollars.
Ten Million Dollar Trading System: Only Earn "Consensus" Money, Not Gamble on Technology's Fate
In "If I Don't Understand's" view, trading is not an esoteric art but a system that can be deconstructed and learned. The core of this system is not chasing the latest technology or the most complex indicators, but returning to the essence of business and human nature—consensus. He has proven this seemingly simple yet profoundly deep trading philosophy with his ten million dollar real trading results.
He pointed out the underlying logic of buying coins: "A token can rise not because its technology is outstanding, but because 'someone believes it is worth this much.'" He believes the core task of a trader is to become a keen "consensus hunter"—constantly seeking, judging, and verifying where strong consensus can be generated, gathered, and ignited in the market. Technology, narrative, and community are merely tools and carriers for forming consensus.
How to discover the seeds of consensus? "If I Don't Understand's" answer is: follow the liquidity. He expanded his vision from within Crypto to the entire macro economy. "Every era has its opportunities. In the early years, it was investing in factories, then buying houses. By the time I graduated, those opportunities were scarce. I saw money flowing towards crypto, so I knew the opportunity was here." This logic applies equally within Crypto. He closely tracks those "paradigm projects" that can break through liquidity bottlenecks and achieve a market cap of 1 billion dollars, while also paying close attention to the second and third waves they trigger. Because these projects define new wealth effects, capital and attention will naturally follow.
His rise perfectly exemplifies his mindset of switching tracks. He clearly analyzed the internal logic of three major waves: the first wave (GameFi): the gamification of DeFi. He believes the essence of GameFi is packaging the tedious process of "earning APR through DeFi staking" into a "gold mining" game, essentially DeFi 2.0. He completed his original capital accumulation through in-depth research of its economic model.
The second wave (inscriptions/BRC-20): short-cycle "boost economics." He summarized its essence as a "Ponzi model" that relies on "more people knowing, more funds entering" to sustain it. However, he keenly pointed out its fatal flaw: unlike ICOs, the fees from inscriptions go to miners, and miners have no obligation to pump the price. This destined it to be a short-cycle wealth creation opportunity. Therefore, after making ten times profit on Avalanche inscriptions, he quickly liquidated his positions.
The third wave (MEME): the extension of FOMO emotions spawned by Solana. He believes MEME shares a similar logic with inscriptions, belonging to the transmission of attention economics, a continuation of the wealth effect on the Solana chain, further catalyzed by platforms like Pump.fun. His million-dollar profits were achieved during this phase. A classic battle was on the Neiro project, where he used BONK and other MEMEs that had reached a 1 billion dollar valuation as "benchmark assets," going long when others were bearish, ultimately capturing its massive surge to a 1 billion dollar valuation.
"If I Don't Understand" is not only adept at going long; his shorting logic is equally clear and lethal. He believes the best time to short comes from accurately grasping market sentiment. The core logic is: when a project experiences a frenzied surge without any substantial pullback, reaching an unreasonable height that completely contradicts its fundamentals, it will inevitably undergo a brutal washout process to clear out early profits. He used PNUT and TRUMP as examples to explain his shorting decisions. Both projects experienced a short-term strong surge after launching on all mainstream exchanges but showed no signs of a washout. In his view, this "upward movement without pullback" itself is the most dangerous signal, providing a high risk-reward ratio and certainty for low-leverage shorting.
From Novice to Expert: A Four-Step Practical Manual for Dominating with a Smartphone
"My experience cannot be replicated, but my insights, patterns, and methodologies for seizing opportunities can be shared." "If I Don't Understand" has distilled his experience into a highly actionable practical manual. The core of this manual emphasizes building one's own trading system through systematic learning and practice, under the premise of controllable risk.
It can only be "growing alone in uncharted territory." He firmly believes that the blockchain industry is destined to be a self-learning process, as information iterates too quickly for anyone to teach you hand in hand. He himself gained valuable firsthand experience through diligent research from 7 PM to 2 AM, personally practicing and losing money. He provided two efficient information filtering methods: first, the KOL screening method. Instead of blindly following a massive amount of information, it is better to find KOLs who can discover and promote potential projects early. Following them means they help you complete the first round of information filtering, greatly enhancing efficiency. For example, the hippo from the Thai zoo was found through KOLs. Second, the community deep dive method. Delving into a project's Discord, Telegram, and other communities is crucial for assessing a project's vitality. A truly vibrant community will have real discussions, timely Q&A, and positive emotions. Conversely, if a community is filled with bots and shills, it indicates that its consensus foundation is false.
How can one "position themselves when no one is paying attention and exit when the crowd is roaring"? This ancient investment adage has been given clear, actionable signal definitions by him: 1) About precise entry signals. When you see a project where the team is consistently active on social media, the roadmap is clear, and product features are gradually being implemented, but the general market has not yet recognized its immense potential, that is the best early entry opportunity. 2) About clear exit signals: When the project's popularity is widely recognized by the market, FOMO emotions are fully unleashed, and both media and community are discussing it, with its market cap benchmarking or even surpassing similar benchmark projects, it indicates that risk is accumulating, and one should consider exiting in batches. 3) Exclusive auxiliary indicators: He also observes some macro-related indicators as "canaries," such as the stock price changes of USDC issuer Circle, which can serve as a reference for judging overall market sentiment or expectations. In terms of news, it serves two purposes: one is to help you judge expectations, and the other is to help you defend.
Preserving capital is essential for having the qualification to turn the tables—this is the highest rule he has distilled from the pain of losses. He emphasizes never to let your entire position bear significant risk, and you must always retain 30% to 50% of your capital, which is the "revolutionary spark" that can help you rise again in the next cycle. He provides a layered position management strategy: 1) Small capital (within tens of thousands of RMB): can be more aggressive, such as fully investing in the Meme sector, but must be diversified across different tokens. At the same time, the holding ratio for a single project should not exceed 1% of its total amount to avoid being targeted and washed out by project parties or major funds.
2) Large capital: Safety is always the top priority. He clearly states that when dealing with altcoin-related contracts, his position generally does not exceed 100,000 to 200,000 USD. Because once it exceeds this level, market liquidity becomes an issue, and your position can easily be calculated for liquidation costs by market makers, making it vulnerable to precise attacks. He recommends that a large portion of capital be used for periodic trading or quantitative strategies during volatile markets.
3) General position building rhythm ("quarter position" strategy): This is a method that balances offense and defense. First, invest 25% of the capital to enter; if the trend does not align with expectations, then use another 25% to add positions at a more ideal level; the remaining 50% should be kept as a strategic reserve, to be used when market pressure is fully released or when a highly certain opportunity arises.
In addition, he believes that traders must master the "universal language" of trading, which includes basic technical indicators like candlestick patterns, MACD, KDJ, and RSI. But he also emphasizes that these can only serve as auxiliary tools. On top of this, he has developed his own unique mindset and strategies.
He quantifies the abstract "market sentiment" or "market feel" into an observable indicator—"momentum." He gives an example: when the US stock market opens, if Bitcoin rises by 0.1% and Ethereum rises by 0.5% at the same time, it indicates that Ethereum's momentum is very strong; conversely, if Ethereum falls instead of rising, then the momentum is weak. By observing the interlinked reactions of different assets within a trend cycle, one can more accurately grasp the strength of market sentiment.
To achieve better costs and higher risk-reward ratios, he strongly recommends using limit orders instead of market orders. For example, for long positions, he employs a "black swan order flow." In times of extreme market panic, he places limit orders at pre-calculated key technical support or psychological support levels to catch those irrationally sold "bloody chips." For short positions, he places limit orders at key resistance levels. If the price strongly breaks through and stabilizes at that level, he decisively cuts losses and exits; but as long as the price does not break through, the potential return of this trade will far exceed the risk of stopping loss.
The Endgame of Trading: Slow Wealth is King, Cultivating Against Human Nature
When trading rises from technique to philosophy, the ultimate test is no longer models or tools, but the trader's understanding of human nature, wealth, and self. "If I Don't Understand's" sharing ultimately returns to the core of this "life-and-death" game—a journey of inner cultivation against human nature.
He believes that successful traders can be two completely different extremes: one is extreme greed, and the other is extreme stability. He classifies himself as the latter, but this stability is not conservative. His choice is to maintain stability in daily trading, but to keep necessary greed at critical moments of high certainty.
"If you don't go all in, you can't achieve such results," he admits. But this "going all in" is not mindless gambling; rather, it is a highly confident and full commitment to oneself after completing all logical deductions and risk assessments. Currently, this heavy position operation leans more towards spot trading, while contracts are only used in two situations: capturing liquidity gaps in the short term or using low leverage below 3x for long-term layouts in large cycles.
The immense wealth seems not to have changed his life trajectory. He shares that his life has basically not changed, constantly reminding himself not to become complacent due to achievements or engage in unreasonable spending. He still cares about the "quality" of money spent, will pay for cost-effectiveness, and will still take away food that he cannot finish alone. This restraint against material desires and a calm attitude towards life may be the important psychological foundation that allows him to navigate bull and bear markets while preserving profits.
Faced with countless followers, he chooses to reject the seemingly most direct monetization method of "copy trading." He believes that "teaching a man to fish is better than giving him a fish." The copy trading model is more like a fund management approach, which cannot replicate true trading ability and cannot adapt to everyone's risk preferences and personalities. He prefers to share his analysis methods, thought processes, and experiences of failure, hoping to help more people establish their own trading systems and seize opportunities that belong to them.
"My personal experience is certainly not replicable," he recognizes clearly, "but I can share my insights, patterns, and how to seize opportunities, which I believe can help some people capture their own opportunities in the future."
At the end of the interview, he gave his most core and heaviest advice. He has received many private messages from debtors, and he strongly advises against trading with debt.
"Once you have debt, your ability to bear risk is very low, but the risks you face are very high." Debt can greatly distort trading mentality, causing one to lose patience in waiting for opportunities, ultimately collapsing in the normal fluctuations of the market."
He believes that making money, especially in the trading market, is essentially a process of waiting for opportunities. Patience is the highest virtue.
"As Buffett said, no one wants to get rich slowly. So, you have to go against this human nature and be willing to wait for time to make you wealthy. Slow wealth is king."
This philosophical statement is not only a summary of his trading career but also an ultimate reminder to all market participants. In this infinite game of combating greed, fear, and human weaknesses, the ultimate victory belongs to those who can befriend time.
Disclaimer:
This article is for reference only. It represents the author's views and does not reflect the position of OKX. This article does not intend to provide (i) investment advice or recommendations; (ii) offers or solicitations to buy, sell, or hold digital assets; (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of such information. Holding digital assets (including stablecoins and NFTs) involves high risks and may fluctuate significantly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. Please consult your legal/tax/investment professionals regarding your specific circumstances. You are responsible for understanding and complying with applicable local laws and regulations.
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