Author: Mask, W3C DAO
A financial experiment born out of a $36 trillion national debt crisis is attempting to transform the crypto world into the "buyer" of U.S. Treasury bonds, while the global monetary system is quietly being reshaped.
In the U.S. Capitol, legislation known as the "Beautiful Act" is being rapidly advanced. Deutsche Bank's latest report characterizes it as the "Pennsylvania Plan" for the U.S. to address its massive debt—by mandating stablecoins to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds, integrating digital dollars into the national debt financing system.
This bill forms a policy combination with the "GENIUS Act," which has already mandated that all dollar-pegged stablecoins must hold 100% cash, U.S. Treasury bonds, or bank deposits. This marks a fundamental shift in the regulation of stablecoins. The bill requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserves of $1 for every $1 issued or high liquidity assets (such as short-term U.S. Treasury bonds) and prohibits algorithmic stablecoins while establishing a dual regulatory framework at both federal and state levels. Its goals are clear:
Alleviate pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds: Mandate that stablecoin reserve assets be directed towards the Treasury bond market. According to the U.S. Treasury's forecast, the global stablecoin market will reach $2 trillion by 2028, with $1.6 trillion flowing into U.S. Treasury bonds, providing new financing channels for the U.S. fiscal deficit.
Consolidate dollar hegemony: Currently, 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar. The bill strengthens the dollar's "on-chain minting power" in the digital economy through a closed loop of "dollar → stablecoin → global payment → Treasury bond repatriation."
Promote interest rate cut expectations: The Deutsche Bank report points out that the bill pressures the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to lower the financing costs of U.S. Treasury bonds while guiding the dollar to weaken, enhancing U.S. export competitiveness.
U.S. Treasury Bond Bottleneck, Stablecoins as Policy Tools
The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with principal and interest repayments reaching $9 trillion by 2025. Faced with this "debt bottleneck," the Trump administration urgently needs to open new financing channels. Stablecoins, once floating on the edge of regulation, unexpectedly became a lifeline for the White House.
According to signals from the Boston Money Market Fund Symposium, stablecoins are being cultivated as "new buyers" in the Treasury bond market. State Street Global Advisors CEO Yie-Hsin Hung stated, "Stablecoins are creating significant new demand for the Treasury bond market."
The numbers speak for themselves: the current total market value of stablecoins is $256 billion, with about 80% allocated to U.S. Treasury bills or repurchase agreements, amounting to approximately $200 billion. Although this accounts for less than 2% of the Treasury bond market, its growth rate has caught the attention of traditional financial institutions.
Citibank predicts that by 2030, the market value of stablecoins will reach between $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion, at which point the amount of Treasury bonds held by issuers will exceed $1.2 trillion. This scale is sufficient to rank among the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Thus, stablecoins have become a new tool for the internationalization of the dollar. For instance, leading stablecoins like USDT and USDC hold nearly $200 billion in Treasury bonds, equivalent to 0.5% of U.S. national debt; if the scale expands to $2 trillion (with 80% allocated to Treasury bonds), the holdings will surpass those of any single country. This mechanism may:
Distort financial markets: A surge in demand for short-term Treasury bonds could suppress yields, steepening the yield curve and weakening the effectiveness of traditional monetary policy.
Undermine capital controls in emerging markets: The cross-border flow of stablecoins bypasses traditional banking systems, weakening the ability to intervene in exchange rates (as seen in Sri Lanka's crisis due to capital flight in 2022).
Bill as a Scalpel, Financial Engineering for Regulatory Arbitrage
The "Beautiful Act" and the "GENIUS Act" form a precise policy combination. The latter serves as a regulatory framework, mandating stablecoins to become the "buyers" of Treasury bonds; the former provides issuance incentives, creating a complete closed loop.
The core design of the bill is filled with political wisdom: when users purchase stablecoins with $1, issuers must use that $1 to buy Treasury bonds. This satisfies compliance requirements while achieving fiscal financing goals. Tether, as the largest stablecoin issuer, is projected to net purchase $33.1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in 2024, rising to become the seventh-largest buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds globally.
The tiered regulatory system further reveals the intention to support oligopolies: stablecoins with a market value exceeding $10 billion are directly regulated by the federal government, while smaller players are handed over to state-level agencies. This design accelerates market concentration, with Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) currently holding over 70% of the market share.
The bill also includes exclusivity clauses: it prohibits non-dollar stablecoins from circulating in the U.S. unless they accept equivalent regulation. This not only consolidates dollar hegemony but also clears obstacles for the USD1 stablecoin supported by the Trump family—this coin has already secured a $2 billion investment commitment from Abu Dhabi Investment Company MGX.
Debt Transfer Chain, Stablecoins' Mission to Rescue the Market
In the second half of 2025, the U.S. Treasury bond market will face a $1 trillion increase in supply. In the face of this flood, stablecoin issuers are expected to play a crucial role. Mark Cabana, head of interest rate strategy at Bank of America, noted, "If the Treasury shifts to short-term debt financing, the demand increase from stablecoins will provide the Treasury Secretary with policy space."
The mechanism design is remarkably clever:
For every $1 stablecoin issued, $1 in short-term Treasury bonds must be purchased, directly creating a financing channel.
The growth in stablecoin demand translates into institutional purchasing power, reducing uncertainty in government financing.
Issuers are compelled to continuously increase their reserve assets, forming a self-reinforcing demand cycle.
Adam Ackermann, head of the investment portfolio at fintech company Paxos, revealed that several top international banks are negotiating stablecoin collaborations, inquiring "how to launch a stablecoin solution within eight weeks." Industry enthusiasm has reached a peak.
However, the devil is in the details: stablecoins primarily peg to short-term Treasury bonds, providing no substantial help to the supply-demand imbalance of long-term Treasury bonds. Moreover, the current scale of stablecoins remains insignificant compared to U.S. Treasury interest payments—global stablecoin total scale is $232 billion, while annual interest on U.S. Treasury bonds exceeds $1 trillion.
New Dollar Hegemony, Rise of On-Chain Colonialism
The deeper strategy of the bill lies in the digital upgrade of dollar hegemony. 95% of global stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, constructing a "shadow dollar network" outside the traditional banking system.
Small and medium-sized enterprises in Southeast Asia and Africa use USDT for cross-border remittances, bypassing the SWIFT system, reducing transaction costs by over 70%. This "informal dollarization" accelerates the penetration of the dollar in emerging markets.
The more profound impact lies in the paradigm revolution of the international clearing system:
Traditional dollar clearing relies on interbank networks like SWIFT.
Stablecoins embed themselves in various distributed payment systems in the form of "on-chain dollars."
The dollar's settlement capability breaks through the boundaries of traditional financial institutions, achieving an upgrade in "digital hegemony."
The European Union is clearly aware of the threat. Its MiCA regulation restricts the daily payment functions of non-euro stablecoins and imposes issuance bans on large-scale stablecoins. The European Central Bank is accelerating the promotion of the digital euro, but progress is slow.
Hong Kong, on the other hand, has adopted a differentiated strategy: while establishing a stablecoin licensing system, it plans to introduce a dual licensing system for over-the-counter trading and custody services. The Monetary Authority also plans to release guidelines for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), promoting the on-chain integration of traditional assets like bonds and real estate.
Risk Transmission Network, Countdown to a Time Bomb
The bill embeds three structural risks:
First: The death spiral of Treasury bonds and stablecoins. If users collectively redeem USDT, Tether must sell Treasury bonds for cash → Treasury bond prices plummet → other stablecoin reserves devalue → a complete collapse. In 2022, USDT briefly lost its peg due to market panic; similar events may impact the Treasury bond market as the scale expands.
Second: Amplification of risks in decentralized finance. Once stablecoins flow into the DeFi ecosystem, they become layered and leveraged through liquidity mining, lending, and staking. The restaking mechanism allows assets to be repeatedly staked across different protocols, geometrically amplifying risks. If the value of underlying assets plummets, it could trigger a chain of liquidations.
Third: Loss of monetary policy independence. The Deutsche Bank report directly points out that the bill will "pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates." The Trump administration indirectly gains "printing rights" through stablecoins, potentially undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve—Powell has recently rejected political pressure, hinting that a rate cut in July is unlikely.
More troubling is that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 100%, and the credit risk of U.S. Treasury bonds is rising. If Treasury bond yields continue to invert or expectations of default arise, the safe-haven attribute of stablecoins will be in jeopardy.
New Global Chessboard, On-Chain Reconstruction of Economic Order
In response to U.S. actions, the world is forming three major camps:
Regulatory integration camp: Canadian banking regulators have announced they are ready to regulate stablecoins, with a framework in development. This echoes U.S. regulatory trends, forming a North American collaborative stance. Coinbase plans to launch U.S. perpetual contracts in July, using stablecoins to settle funding rates.
Innovative defense camp: Hong Kong and Singapore show regulatory path divergence. Hong Kong adopts a cautiously tightening approach, positioning stablecoins as "virtual bank substitutes"; Singapore implements a "stablecoin sandbox," allowing experimental issuance. This difference may trigger regulatory arbitrage, weakening overall competitiveness in Asia.
Alternative solution camp: Citizens in high-inflation countries view stablecoins as "safe-haven assets," undermining local currency circulation and the effectiveness of central bank monetary policy. These countries may accelerate the development of local stablecoins or multilateral digital currency bridge projects but face severe trade challenges.
Moreover, the international system will also undergo changes: from unipolar to a "hybrid architecture," current reform proposals present three paths:
Diversified currency alliance (most probable): The dollar, euro, and renminbi form a tri-polar reserve currency system, supplemented by regional settlement systems (such as ASEAN multilateral currency swaps).
Digital currency competition: 130 countries are developing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), with the digital renminbi already piloting cross-border trade, potentially reshaping payment efficiency but facing challenges of sovereignty transfer.
Extreme fragmentation: If geopolitical conflicts escalate, it may lead to a fractured dollar, euro, and BRICS currency camp, significantly increasing global trade costs.
PayPal CEO Alex Chriss pointed out a key bottleneck: "From a consumer perspective, there is currently no real incentive to drive the adoption of stablecoins." The company is launching a rewards mechanism to address the adoption issue, while decentralized exchanges like XBIT are solving trust issues through smart contracts.
Deutsche Bank's report predicts that as the "Beautiful Act" is implemented, the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates, and the dollar will significantly weaken. By 2030, when stablecoins hold $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, the global financial system may have quietly completed its on-chain reconstruction—the dollar hegemony embedded in every transaction on the blockchain, while risks spread through decentralized networks to every participant.
Technological innovation has never been a neutral tool; as the dollar dons the cloak of blockchain, the game of the old order is being played out on a new battlefield!
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
