XRP community is keeping a close eye on the courts again after Judge Torres rejected a joint motion from Ripple and the SEC, which means the lawsuit — which has been going on since 2020 — is going to continue. 

The decision already cost XRP over $2 billion in market cap in just 24 hours. But Fred Rispoli, a lawyer who supports Ripple, says that this latest setback won't put XRP and ETF hopes at risk — at least not directly.

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Rispoli does not think the rejection will affect XRP's status on the secondary market, which is what matters for ETF approval. Even though the headlines might make you think otherwise, he does not see any legal reason why the injunction in the case would stop the SEC from going ahead with a spot XRP ETF.

The injunction, he stresses, only matters if the SEC wants it to matter, and the commission could just as easily waive the restrictions or choose not to enforce them. The big question, as he sees it, is whether the SEC's new tops are ready to change their approach.

Behind the scenes

He also said there are signs that Ripple and the SEC are moving toward a quiet settlement, probably for a reduced fine and with Ripple changing its institutional sales practices. That would keep the original Torres judgment in place while easing regulatory tension. 

Ripple has already made changes, with its legal team now calling past violations "historic institutional sales," which suggests they are trying to distance current operations from previous practices.

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ETF analysts are feeling good. Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart from Bloomberg recently said the odds of XRP, Solana and Litecoin spot ETFs getting approved in 2024 are above 90%, which suggests the SEC is getting more involved with potential issuers.

If that keeps up, Rispoli might be right: the ETF option is still on the table, even with all the legal back and forth.

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