The model from Gauntlet indicates that once the issuance of tokenized loans reaches 5% of the global $30 trillion market, the scale of on-chain private credit could exceed $250 billion.

Original source: Cryptoslate

Translation: Blockchain Knight

According to a joint report released on June 26, risk modeling company Gauntlet, analytics provider RWA.xyz, and RedStone predict that by 2034, the on-chain RWA market could reach as high as $30 trillion.

Research shows that the scale of tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, has grown from approximately $5 billion in 2022 to over $24 billion by June 2025, with an annual growth rate of 85%, making it the fastest-growing sector in the Crypto space after dollar-pegged tokens.

According to the rwa.xyz dashboard embedded in the research report, private credit dominates the market with an outstanding scale of $14 billion, while tokenized U.S. Treasury instruments contribute about $7.5 billion.

The report modeled various adoption curves and concluded that if a 10% to 30% share of global securities and alternative assets could be captured between 2030 and 2034, the on-chain market size would be closer to the range of $16 trillion to $30 trillion.

The report notes that BlackRock, JPMorgan, Franklin Templeton, and Apollo have now issued scaled funds on public blockchains, indicating that tokenization has evolved from the proof-of-concept stage to the actual deployment stage in less than two years.

On the Morpho and Kamino platforms, yield-bearing Treasury tokenization, resettable share classes, and leveraged private credit cycles demonstrate how DeFi infrastructure creates new distribution channels and liquidity venues for traditionally illiquid financial instruments.

RedStone believes that precise pricing relies on an oracle architecture that integrates asset net value snapshots, regulatory certifications, and liquidity discounts, which differs from the real-time spot data sources commonly found in DeFi.

The model from Gauntlet indicates that once the issuance of tokenized loans reaches 5% of the global $30 trillion market, the scale of on-chain private credit could exceed $250 billion.

In contrast, if asset management firms allocate 2% of short-term funds to blockchain infrastructure, the scale of Treasury note tokens could exceed $1 trillion.

The report's authors predict that programmable compliance layers (such as Securitize's sToken) and the continuous improvement of regulatory clarity in the U.S., Europe, and Asia will enable pension funds and insurance companies to directly allocate tokenized products, thereby expanding the reachable customer base from Crypto-native capital to a broader range.

RedStone plans to update the market size tracker quarterly and add real-time oracle metrics for the on-chain RWA index. Meanwhile, Gauntlet will release risk parameter adjustments related to leveraged vaults associated with private credit pools.

The alliance will hold further briefings at the RWA summit in Cannes on July 1, where detailed inflow data and the methodology behind its $30 trillion cap model will be announced.

The report notes that the current scale of $24 billion only accounts for about 0.006% of the $400 trillion scale of traditional assets, but the report believes that the speed of institutional issuance and the advantages of programmable settlement are sufficient to justify the $30 trillion scenario within the next nine years.

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