"The commitment of prediction markets is to utilize the wisdom of the crowd to make accurate and fair predictions about the most important events in society."
Written by: Pzai, Foresight News
Recently, news regarding the conflict between Iran and Israel has dominated the front pages of major news outlets. For people in war-torn regions and users under the global information network, a real-time and effective source of information holds immense value. As prediction markets have gradually gained attention as a primary source of information in recent years, particularly shining in the 2024 U.S. elections, the viewpoints on issues within these markets are also building their reference value for people. This article provides a brief review of the fluctuations in viewpoints during the recent conflict.
Earlier on June 18, social media widely circulated claims that "a huge surprise will happen—a surprise that the world will remember for centuries," without detailing specifics. However, Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated on Wednesday that the 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of highly enriched uranium possessed by Iran may have been transferred, triggering market speculation about the possibility of Iran retaliating with a nuclear bomb. On Polymarket, traders were not optimistic about the probability of Iran using a nuclear bomb in 2025; although it quickly surged to 20% on June 18, it rapidly fell back to 13% the following day.
In terms of news, both Israel and the United States have plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities to varying degrees, and senior European diplomats are set to hold nuclear negotiations with Iran in Geneva, which somewhat alleviates this possibility. However, the nature of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations remains mediocre, with a 42% probability of the U.S. and Iran resuming nuclear talks before July; a 16% probability of reaching a new nuclear agreement before July; a 49% probability of reaching an agreement this year; and a 28% probability of Trump exiting the Iran nuclear talks before July. In the context of the current conflict and hopes for peace talks, traders estimate a 32% probability that Iran will end uranium enrichment before August, and the probability of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran before July is roughly between 22-23%.
As the conflict escalates, maritime agencies have advised ships to avoid Iranian waters when heading to the Strait of Hormuz. On June 19, former Iranian Economic Minister Ehsan Khandouzi stated, "Starting tomorrow, for 100 days, no oil tanker or liquefied natural gas cargo ship may pass through the strait without Iranian approval." Although this was not an official statement, its timing and Khandouzi's high-ranking position may reflect broader sentiments within Iran or serve as a warning of future events. Traders predict a 21% probability that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz before July, with a 37% probability of a blockade within the year.
On June 16, Trump issued a statement demanding Iran's "unconditional surrender" and warned of possible strikes against Iranian leader Khamenei. On June 17, Iranian state media revealed that Supreme Leader Khamenei had not made a public appearance for five consecutive days and had begun secretly arranging to transfer supreme power to the Supreme Council of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, rather than to his son Mojtaba as previously speculated. This move indicates that, in the face of unprecedented military pressure from the U.S. and Israel, the 86-year-old Khamenei is preparing for the worst to ensure the regime's continuity after his potential demise. However, Trump stated that he would not take action to remove the Iranian Supreme Leader for the time being. In trader predictions, the probability of Khamenei stepping down this year is 61%, with a 23% probability of him stepping down before July.
Israeli officials estimate that the U.S. may join the war against Iran on the evening of the 17th, but President Trump refused to disclose whether the U.S. plans to join Israel's military actions against Iran on June 18, stating that Tehran has engaged in discussions with the U.S. regarding the possibility of negotiations. In terms of deployment probabilities, traders are more inclined to buy into the likelihood of U.S. military action against Iran, with a 67% probability of action before July. Traders even predict a 42% probability that Iran will be overthrown by 2025. French President Macron expressed opposition to violently overthrowing the Iranian regime on the 17th, warning that it could destabilize the entire Middle East region.
As one of Iran's key nuclear facilities, the Fordow enrichment facility is under strategic scrutiny from the U.S. and Israel. CNN cited sources indicating that Trump is increasingly inclined to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. is considering launching an attack on Iran this weekend, with the Fordow nuclear facility being a primary target. Traders also expect the probability of a U.S. strike on the Fordow nuclear facility before July to rise to 61%, with a 60% probability that the facility will be destroyed before July.
The recent tensions surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict have triggered a series of chain reactions and international attention. Prediction markets and the developments indicate that the core risk of the conflict is focusing on the possibility of the U.S. taking direct military action against Iran's critical nuclear facilities (especially Fordow), with a significant increase in the likelihood of broader confrontations erupting in the short term. At the same time, signs of power transfer within the Iranian regime indicate a high concern for the regime's continuity under immense pressure.
Although concerns about the direct use of nuclear weapons were once assessed by the market as a low short-term possibility, and a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not imminent, the spiral escalation of the conflict and the potential threat to key energy routes have sharply increased regional security risks. Overall, the situation is developing towards intensified direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran, with challenges to the stability of the Iranian regime, and the international community is on high alert for the possibility of further escalation of the conflict.
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