A fresh round of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East stirred financial markets, JPMorgan Private Bank’s Global Investment Strategy Group stated in a June 13 report. Published under the title of their midyear outlook, the team assessed that while global equities had rebounded from April lows to reach record territory, renewed conflict between Israel and Iran now presents a tangible short-term threat to investor confidence. Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure prompted a surge in oil prices, with Brent crude up over 7% by morning trading in New York—its steepest rise since March 2022. Iran pledged retaliation, while the U.S. distanced itself from the attacks.

Despite the volatility, JPMorgan’s analysts expressed confidence in the broader economic and market backdrop. The report states:

If we do see a significant disruption, the energy supply chain appears to have more capacity to absorb the shock than in decades past.

U.S. shale output flexibility and spare capacity within OPEC+ were cited as buffers. The bank highlighted that, while Iran produces only 4% of global crude, any risk to regional chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil flows—could trigger further price instability. However, oil prices remain 10% below their January highs, and both U.S. inflation and Treasury yields are trending lower, giving markets room to maneuver.

The team reinforced its belief that the U.S. economy remains durable, supported by declining CPI and PPI readings and signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks. The report notes:

Markets will continue to be tested, with uncertainty likely to carry through the summer and beyond.

JPMorgan concluded by emphasizing portfolio strategy: “Recent events underscore the importance of building resilience in portfolios through diversification, particularly with uncorrelated assets such as gold, infrastructure and hedge funds.”

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