Global stock markets see nearly $10 billion in net outflows in a single week, setting a record! BTC famous whale incurs nearly $10 million in losses in a week.

Macroeconomic Interpretation: From the sharp fluctuations in expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to the $10 billion-level asset rebalancing by pension funds, from the unrealized losses in institutional holdings of Ethereum ETFs to the massive options expiration in the Bitcoin derivatives market, these seemingly scattered events actually conceal a core logical chain that influences market direction. We combine the latest data and market dynamics to deeply analyze how several key variables are reshaping the underlying logic of the crypto market.

Regarding the shift in monetary policy, the dual game of the closing of the interest rate cut window and the weakening of the dollar. The U.S. core PCE price index for April is expected to maintain a high year-on-year growth rate of 2.6%, remaining stuck in the 2.6%-2.8% range for six consecutive months, a figure that far exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target. Although market bets on the probability of a rate cut in September have plummeted from 68% a week ago to 47%, institutions like Mitsubishi UFJ believe that the Federal Reserve may be forced to initiate rate cuts in the fourth quarter to cope with economic pressures. This policy lag could lead to mid-term pressure on the dollar index, and historical data shows that periods of dollar weakness often correlate negatively with the prices of non-dollar assets like Bitcoin.

It is worth noting that the U.S. economy is facing new inflationary pressures from tariff policies. Although there have been signs of easing trade frictions recently, economists generally predict that core inflation may rebound to 3% in a few months. This "stagflation risk" has prompted some funds to position themselves in anti-inflation assets in advance, and Bitcoin's fixed supply characteristic has led to its increasing share in institutional allocations. According to the latest data from Bank of America, cryptocurrency saw a weekly inflow of $2.6 billion, setting a new high since January this year, in stark contrast to the $9.5 billion outflow from global stock markets during the same period.

Goldman Sachs' trading department disclosed that U.S. pension funds will sell about $20 billion in stocks by the end of May to restore stock-bond balance. This large-scale rebalancing operation stems from rare fluctuations in the bond market—this month, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has fluctuated by more than 30 basis points, forcing institutional investors to adjust the ratio of traditional 60/40 investment portfolios. Although the scale of direct inflows into the crypto market has not been clearly defined, eToro analysts point out that such operations often trigger chain reactions across asset classes: when liquidity in the stock market contracts, high-volatility and independently trending crypto assets may become a short-term safe haven for funds.

At the same time, the institutional holding dilemma of Ethereum ETFs exposes structural contradictions in the crypto derivatives market. The average holding cost of BlackRock and Fidelity's spot Ethereum ETFs is $3,300 and $3,500, respectively, leading to an unrealized loss of 21% compared to the current price of $2,600. This "high-position building" phenomenon contrasts with the inflow of funds into the Bitcoin market—CryptoQuant data shows that the daily new funds for Bitcoin are about $1.8 billion, close to the peak levels of the 2021 bull market, especially when the price broke through $73,000, with a single-day inflow peak of $4.5 billion. This divergence indicates that institutional investors are more inclined to use Bitcoin rather than altcoins as a macro hedging tool.

Deribit data shows that 93,000 Bitcoin options (nominal value of $9.79 billion) and 624,000 Ethereum options will expire soon. Among them, the Put/Call ratio for Bitcoin options has reached 0.89, with the maximum pain point concentrated at $100,000, while the corresponding data for Ethereum is 0.81 and $2,300. From the perspective of options market game logic, when the spot price approaches the maximum pain point, market makers are incentivized to reduce payout losses through selling pressure or price increases, which may lead to intensified short-term price volatility.

It is important to be cautious as the current open interest in Bitcoin contracts is at a historical high, coupled with warnings from the European Central Bank regarding the upgrade of crypto asset regulations (such as advancing the digital euro project), significantly increasing market vulnerability. Officials like Panetta emphasize that "we cannot rely solely on rules to limit crypto risks," suggesting that technical regulatory measures may be introduced in the future, such as audits of stablecoin reserves or liquidity monitoring of DeFi protocols. Regulatory uncertainty and the leverage liquidation risks in the derivatives market may resonate, potentially becoming the catalyst to break the current sideways pattern.

In summary, the Bitcoin market is facing a threefold struggle: the change in dollar pricing logic brought about by the shift in monetary policy, the liquidity redistribution triggered by institutional capital rebalancing, and the potential impact of high leverage in the derivatives market and regulatory upgrades. In the short term, the expiration of $9.7 billion in options may exacerbate price volatility, but the medium to long-term trend of capital inflows remains unchanged, with Bitcoin still playing a dual role as "digital gold" and "risk asset."

For investors, two key signals should be closely monitored: first, the clarification of the Federal Reserve's policy path following the release of core PCE data; second, the cross-market capital flows triggered by pension fund rebalancing operations. If the dollar index falls below key support levels due to rising expectations of rate cuts, Bitcoin is likely to break through the key resistance range of $115,000; conversely, if the derivatives market experiences large-scale long and short liquidations, prices may retrace to test the psychological levels of $100,000 and $90,000. In this game between institutions and macro policies, increased market volatility may become the new normal.

BTC Data Analysis:

According to monitoring data from CoinAnk, the well-known whale James Wynn triggered a liquidation mechanism due to the drop in Bitcoin prices, with his holding of 949 BTC (approximately $99.3 million) being liquidated when it fell below the $105,000 mark. This incident not only exposed the enormous risks of high-leverage trading but also revealed the liquidity dilemmas faced by institutional investors in extreme market conditions. It is noteworthy that this trader frequently adjusted positions over the past week; although he ultimately incurred a paper loss of over $99 million in a single week, combining his previous operations of long-short hedging and rapid liquidation, he still retained approximately $8.45 million in profits.

From a market impact perspective, such large-scale liquidation events often create chain reactions. Data shows that there is about $1.135 billion in short liquidation pressure near key price points (such as $105,000), and this "liquidation threshold effect" can easily trigger accelerated price fluctuations. Historical experience indicates that when daily liquidation amounts exceed $250 million, market sentiment indices (such as the fear and greed index) quickly turn cautious, leading to reduced trading volume and a downward price spiral. In the current environment, the unusual movements of whale positions may exacerbate market concerns about liquidity risks, prompting more investors to reduce leverage or shift to defensive strategies. This shift in collective behavior may extend the market adjustment cycle while also creating low-entry opportunities for institutions with risk management capabilities.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。