Since the beginning of this year, the price of Ripple (XRP) has basically maintained a fluctuating consolidation trend, with the current trading price nearly flat compared to the beginning of the year. As of 2 PM on May 28, Ripple was trading around $2.3, down 0.47% from the previous day and approximately 32% lower than the high in November last year.
This price trend is often seen in technical analysis as a typical characteristic of price consolidation—where the asset accumulates strength amid fluctuations in preparation for a subsequent breakout. Market participants are optimistic about XRP's long-term potential, believing that once market sentiment and the regulatory environment improve further, XRP could experience a strong rally, with target prices potentially exceeding $10.
Technical Analysis: Can XRP bulls maintain their upward momentum? Currently, the XRP price is slightly above the short-term support near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around $2.3. The 100-day EMA, slightly lower, provides additional support at $2.27.
Despite the solid support, the sell signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator that appeared on May 20 may prompt market participants to reduce their positions. This signal occurs when the blue MACD line falls below the red signal line.
On the other hand, the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicates that funds are flowing out of XRP, with the value dropping from 76 points, close to the overbought zone on May 14, suggesting increased selling pressure in the short term.
If the price falls below the 50-day and 100-day EMA, selling pressure may further intensify. Investors may look for buying opportunities near the 200-day EMA (approximately $2.06) and the low of $1.61 set on April 7.
However, the SuperTrend indicator still shows a buy signal, indicating that bulls are in control and are likely to break the current consolidation trend for an upward breakout. SuperTrend is a trend-following volatility indicator that issues a buy signal when the price breaks above the indicator line and changes from red to green. As long as this indicator remains below the XRP price, the likelihood of a bullish breakout remains high.
Key resistance levels to watch include the descending trend line and the supply zone at $2.8, which has been a barrier multiple times in February and December this year. If the price successfully breaks through these levels, the path for XRP to reach the $3 target in the short term will become clearer.
Multiple positive factors are emerging, could XRP reach the key $10 mark in the long run?
Interest rate cut expectations drive overall crypto rebound
Several macro analysts predict that the Federal Reserve is likely to start a rate-cutting cycle in September. This policy turning point could stimulate market risk appetite, boosting Bitcoin and altcoin markets, and XRP will naturally benefit from this macro-driven wave.
ETF race adds a giant, BlackRock rumored to be entering XRP
Rumors suggest that global asset management giant BlackRock is considering joining the XRP spot ETF application race, competing with traditional financial institutions like VanEck and Franklin Templeton. As a heavyweight player in the ETF space, BlackRock's participation will undoubtedly inject strong confidence into XRP.
Approval probability greatly increased, ETF funds may flood in
Data from prediction market platform Polymarket indicates that the probability of XRP ETF approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has exceeded 80%. Notably, the demand for such products is quite substantial: the leveraged XXRP ETF, launched less than two months ago, has attracted over $112 million in inflows, demonstrating strong investor interest in XRP.
On-chain whales continue to accumulate, possibly signaling a new market cycle
According to on-chain tracking data, addresses holding over 1 million XRP have been continuously increasing their holdings in recent months, accumulating billions of tokens. These "whales" typically have a forward-looking perspective, and their concentrated buying behavior is interpreted by the market as a precursor to a new upward cycle.
Additionally, as the legal dispute with the SEC nears its end, Ripple Labs is actively promoting more U.S. companies to connect to the RippleNet network. Coupled with the recent acquisition of HiddenRoad, this is expected to significantly increase the transaction and application frequency of the XRP ledger, further strengthening the development momentum of its blockchain ecosystem.
Summary:
After a period of fluctuating consolidation, XRP is in a critical accumulation phase. The technical indicators show that bulls still have the upper hand, and if they can break through key resistance levels, there is a short-term potential to challenge $3. Meanwhile, multiple positive factors—including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the entry of giants like BlackRock into the spot ETF race, continued accumulation by on-chain whales, and Ripple's business expansion—provide solid support for XRP's medium to long-term rise. As the regulatory environment gradually clarifies and market sentiment improves, XRP is expected to usher in a new wave of strong growth, potentially challenging the key $10 mark, making it worth investors' continued attention.
Related: Gemini Report: UK cryptocurrency holdings to surpass global levels by 2025
Original article: “Ripple (XRP) fluctuates in consolidation, can it challenge $10?”
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