It is just waiting for the right conditions.
Author: A Aldokali
Translation: Baihua Blockchain
For months, cryptocurrency traders have been anxiously refreshing price charts, anticipating the arrival of "altcoin season," when altcoins will soar significantly. However, despite bullish predictions and brief surges, altcoin season has yet to materialize.
Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, leaving altcoin enthusiasts wondering: why is altcoin season delayed? Will there even be an altcoin season?
01 Bitcoin's Iron Grip: Dominance and Institutional Adoption
Bitcoin's dominance—its share of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies—has hovered around 60% between 2024 and 2025, a level not seen since the 2017 bull market. This dominance reflects the market's preference for Bitcoin, attributed to its stability and widespread institutional adoption.
Institutional Interest: Bitcoin ETFs approved at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 have attracted billions of dollars into BTC, making it a "safe-haven asset" in the crypto market. Large institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity prioritize Bitcoin, overlooking altcoins.
Halving Effect: The Bitcoin halving event in 2024 reinforces its scarcity narrative, attracting funds that might have flowed into riskier altcoins.
As analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out, "altcoins typically start to rise only after Bitcoin completes its parabolic ascent." With BTC continuously setting new highs, investors have no reason to turn to altcoins.
02 Macroeconomic Headwinds: The Fed's Tight Control on Liquidity
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been an invisible killer of hopes for altcoin season. Unlike the 2020-2021 bull market (driven by near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing), the 2024-2025 period is marked by quantitative tightening (QT) and high interest rates.
Liquidity Tightening: Quantitative tightening has drained liquidity from financial markets, reducing risk appetite. As speculative assets, altcoins rely on excess capital; without liquidity, they can only stagnate.
Delayed Rate Cuts: Despite market rumors that the Fed may shift to easing policies, rate cuts remain a distant prospect. Before borrowing costs decrease, both institutional and retail investors are reluctant to take risks on altcoins.
This macroeconomic backdrop sharply contrasts with the liquidity flood during previous altcoin seasons, when Meme and DeFi tokens surged significantly.
03 Oversupply of Altcoins: Too Many Coins, Insufficient Demand
The crypto market is flooded with over 15,000 altcoins, but liquidity has not kept pace. New projects are launched daily, yet the total capital pool remains fragmented, diluting potential returns.
Capital Fragmentation: More tokens compete for the same liquidity, making it difficult for even promising projects to gain attention.
Cautious Venture Capital: Venture capital for crypto projects has dropped from $29.4 billion in 2022 to $7.1 billion in 2024, leading to a severe shortage of development funds for altcoins.
This oversupply creates a "crowded market," where only tokens with outstanding utility or viral popularity can stand out—far from the ICO boom of 2017 or the NFT frenzy of 2021.
04 Absence of Retail Investors
Altcoin seasons are typically driven by retail FOMO (fear of missing out). However, retail participation in 2025 is noticeably weaker compared to past cycles.
Low Social Sentiment: Indicators tracking crypto-related social media activity show a lack of the frenzy seen during the 2021 Dogecoin or Shiba Inu craze.
Cautious Behavior: Retail investors, who were hurt in the 2022 market crash, now prefer Bitcoin over altcoins. As one trader put it, "Why buy Meme when BTC has risen 150% this year?"
Without the enthusiasm of retail investors, altcoins lack the fuel to ignite sustained increases.
05 Regulatory Uncertainty: A Double-Edged Sword
Regulatory clarity is crucial for altcoins, especially those classified as securities. Although the Trump administration's pro-crypto stance sparked optimism, progress remains slow.
ETF Delays: Altcoin ETFs for Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin are still mired in regulatory limbo. Analysts believe they have a 65-90% chance of approval, but the timeline remains unclear.
DeFi and Stablecoin Scrutiny: Regulatory ambiguity surrounding decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and stablecoins stifles innovation, deterring institutional funds.
Until regulators approve altcoin ETFs or clarify rules, uncertainty will persist.
06 Historical Patterns: Patience is a Virtue
The crypto market is cyclical, and altcoin seasons typically occur in the final year of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. While 2025 is considered the next altcoin season, delays are not unprecedented.
2017 vs. 2021: Both altcoin seasons occurred after Bitcoin set historical highs and entered consolidation. If BTC stabilizes above $100,000, capital may eventually flow into altcoins.
ETH/BTC Ratio: Ethereum's underperformance against Bitcoin indicates that altcoin season has not yet begun. Historically, Ethereum often leads altcoins upward, but its ratio to BTC remains near multi-year lows.
07 Conclusion
Altcoin season has not disappeared; it is just waiting for the right conditions. Bitcoin's dominance, macroeconomic pressures, and regulatory hurdles have temporarily pressed the pause button on altcoin enthusiasm. However, history shows that once BTC enters a stable period and liquidity returns, altcoins will have their moment.
For now, patience and selective investment in projects with strong fundamentals—such as artificial intelligence, DeFi, or Layer-2 solutions—are key. As the crypto adage goes, "Time in the market beats timing the market."
Stay vigilant, act cautiously, and keep a close eye on Bitcoin's dominance. The clock for altcoin season is ticking—it’s just a matter of time, not if it will happen.
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