After watching Buffett's 2025 shareholder meeting, the cheerful Q&A also revealed some concerns.
Trade Tariffs. Buffett first criticized the United States for using trade tariffs as a weapon, which has created uncertainty in the global economy. He suggested that we should let those who are skilled do what they are good at to maximize efficiency. From Buffett's investment portfolio, there are many multinational companies, including those in consumer goods and energy, which are strongly related to trade. This public criticism may help improve trade direction after the 90-day tariff suspension period.
Optimistic about Japan. Buffett stated that he will continue to increase investments in Japan and emphasized the long-term holding of stocks in the five major trading companies. Strictly speaking, Japan has basically completed its iteration; the new and old generations have optimized the new cycle of population. Whether in terms of vitality or economic growth, it is vividly reflected, especially when taking a taxi in Tokyo 🚖, where you will notice fewer elderly people and more middle-aged individuals in their 30s and 40s.
Real Estate Investment. Buffett is not optimistic about the real estate market, believing that real estate investment is more complex than stocks, with longer transaction cycles and higher risks. If I remember correctly, Berkshire owns the second-largest real estate brokerage in the U.S., HomeServices of America, and invested $10 billion in logistics real estate in 2023. Additionally, part of the float from its insurance companies is also invested in commercial real estate mortgages. The sudden change in tone is quite unusual, especially as the U.S. commercial real estate sector has recently seen record high loan default rates and vacancy rates. Is this a way to release public opinion, feign weakness, and wait for an opportunity to buy low? After all, Buffett currently holds the largest cash reserves among publicly listed companies globally.
Cash Reserves. With over $300 billion in cash reserves, the $2.9 billion stock buyback in 2024 is quite stingy; you should know that in 2021, Berkshire's buyback amount reached $27 billion. This indicates that opportunities are approaching, and Buffett also mentioned that there may be significant acquisition opportunities in the next five years. Within five years, could it be the cyclical low point in 2027? After all, the King of Heaven is also optimistic about 2027, which is seen as the biggest golden pit in the Kondratiev cycle.
Other than that, there doesn't seem to be much else; it's mostly just some casual Q&A, not very meaningful. I hope Buffett lives a long life and stays healthy. 🙏 Grateful
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