This year, U.S. recession odds have climbed amid escalating tariffs, reciprocal trade measures, waning business confidence, decelerating job growth, and enduring inflation, all of which are chipping away at economic stability and dimming growth prospects.

As U.S. stocks closed Monday in the red, Polymarket’s prediction market assigns a 57% probability to a recession. That contract has amassed $3,121,390 in trading volume at press time and it briefly reached 66% odds during the first two weeks of April.

On Kalshi, recession odds are even more elevated, standing at 61% as of April 21. Kalshi’s figures peaked at 66.2% on April 7, reflecting traders’ shifting economic outlook.

Meanwhile, a broad array of leading U.S. companies—particularly in technology, retail, and manufacturing—have highlighted in their Q1 2025 earnings reports and conference calls the impacts and uncertainties stemming from Trump’s new tariffs.

Major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Citi, and HSBC, have likewise noted the heightened risk of recession and market upheaval following tariff announcements.

Kalshi traders assign a 23% probability to a recession occurring in Q2 2025, dwindling to a mere 10% for Q3 2025. This pessimism doesn’t appear to be a fleeting anomaly but rather indicative of a deeper, systemic transformation.

The U.S. economy seems poised for a turbulent journey forward, as growth forecasts dim and the pillars of stability begin to wobble. The elevated recession odds reported by Polymarket and Kalshi imply that such gloomy sentiment might trigger its own realization.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。