The total market value of AI Agents plummeted by 67%, with undercurrents of competition between Solana and Base chains. Can old MEMEs ride the AI wave to survive?

CN
1 year ago

AI Agent Trends Synchronize with MEME, Currently Not Displaying Value Attributes

Written by: Frank, PANews

AI Agent is widely regarded within the industry as one of the key tracks to watch in 2025. However, with the recent significant market adjustments, AI Agent has also experienced a sharp decline. From the data perspective, how substantial is the pullback of AI Agent? What competitive changes are quietly occurring between chains? PANews conducted an investigation into the recent data changes of AI Agent.

AI Agent Total Market Cap Drops 67% in the Last Month

According to data from Cookie.fun, as of February 10, there are a total of 1,412 AI Agents, with a total market cap of approximately $6.52 billion, down 67% from $20.2 billion on January 15. Meanwhile, the number of Agents continues to increase, with 116 new Agents added in the past month, representing a growth rate of about 8.9%. However, in terms of growth speed, the current addition rate of AI Agents has also slowed down.

AI Agent Total Market Cap Plummets 67%, Underlying Competition Between Solana and Base Chains, Can Old MEME Ride the AI Wave to Survive?_aicoin_Image1

Based on data from January 15, the average market cap of AI Agents at that time was approximately $15.07 million, which has now decreased to $4.61 million as of February 10.

In terms of chain distribution, Solana and Base remain the leaders in the AI Agent space. There are 793 AI Agents on the Solana chain, accounting for more than half. The number of AI Agents on Base is 379, which is less than half of Solana's. However, in terms of total market cap, Solana's AI Agents have a total market cap of about $3.2 billion, while Base's is $2.47 billion, showing a smaller gap. Calculating the average market cap, Solana's AI Agents have an average market cap of about $4.03 million, while Base's average market cap reaches $6.51 million. From this perspective, it seems that Base's AI Agents appear to hold their value better.

AI Agent Total Market Cap Plummets 67%, Underlying Competition Between Solana and Base Chains, Can Old MEME Ride the AI Wave to Survive?_aicoin_Image2

From the changes observed, the decline on the Solana chain is indeed more pronounced. At its peak, the total market cap of AI Agents on the Solana chain reached $11 billion, which has now decreased by 70%. The peak market cap for Base was approximately $7.94 billion, which has decreased by 68.8% during the same period.

Currently, there are 6 AI Agents on the Solana chain with a market cap exceeding $100 million, namely FARTCOIN, AI16Z, ARC, ACT, GRIFFAIN, and GOAT. On Base, there are 5 AI Agents with a market cap exceeding $100 million, which are VIRTUAL, TOSHI, FAI, AIXBT, and VVV. Notably, the highest market cap AI Agent is currently VIRTUAL, reaching $760 million. It is worth mentioning that Virtuals Protocol has expanded to Solana as of February 10.

Recently, BNB Chain has seen relatively rapid development in the AI Agent direction, with two projects, CHEEMS and CGPT, having market caps exceeding $100 million. Additionally, BNB Chain has recently experienced a significant increase in Mindshare (the percentage of total discussions about the token on Twitter). On February 7, BNB Chain's Mindshare was less than 4%, but by February 10, this figure had risen to 21.86%.

The recent growth of BNB Chain is primarily driven by two projects: one is Andy BNB, which had a market cap of approximately $42 million on February 10, with a Mindshare increase of 1.02 over the past week, reaching 1.44%. The other is CHEEMS, which had a Mindshare of about 0.97% and a market cap of approximately $144 million on February 10.

Top Tokens Currently Down Over 70%, Can Old MEME Ride the AI Wave to Revive?

In terms of classification, the current tokens in the AI field are still dominated by MEME and framework categories. Among them, the market cap of MEME category AI tokens is approximately $1.94 billion, while the framework category exceeds $1.49 billion. The highest market cap token in the MEME category remains FARTCOIN, with a market cap of about $524 million. Its highest market cap once exceeded $2.7 billion, and it has currently declined by about 80%. The leading token in the framework category is VIRTUAL, currently valued at $760 million, with a peak market cap of $3.3 billion, down over 76.8%.

Another previously popular framework, AI16Z, had a peak market cap of $2.7 billion, dropping to a low of $270 million, a pullback of 90%. Currently, the market cap of AI16Z has slightly rebounded to $450 million.

Surprisingly, in the MEME category, besides FARTCOIN, the second and third ranked tokens are TOSHI (market cap $304 million) and TURBO (market cap $271 million).

TOSHI was originally a pet-themed meme coin named after Brian Armstrong's cat, the founder and CEO of Coinbase. This token was issued at the end of 2023, and its market cap once exceeded $300 million in 2024, before declining to around $30 million. By November 2024, with the rise of the AI Agent trend, TOSHI transitioned to an AI token using VIRTUAL as its framework, and its market cap soared, reaching a peak of $960 million. However, based on the current product framework, TOSHI's main function is simply to auto-tweet, with only 779 Twitter followers.

AI Agent Total Market Cap Plummets 67%, Underlying Competition Between Solana and Base Chains, Can Old MEME Ride the AI Wave to Survive?_aicoin_Image3

The other third-ranked MEME token is Turbo, launched in April 2023, claimed to be the first AI-generated MEME token. This token was issued on Ethereum and is one of the few AI tokens with a high market cap issued on Ethereum. Previously, Turbo's highest market cap reached $990 million, with a maximum pullback exceeding 80%.

Trends Synchronize with MEME, Currently Not Displaying Value Attributes

Overall, the tokens with higher market caps in the AI Agent category have generally pulled back over 80% from their peaks. For instance, the once-popular GOAT had a peak market cap of $1.37 billion, which has now dropped to a low of $97.37 million, a pullback exceeding 92%. Observing the market cap curves of leading AI tokens, they almost all exhibit a 'mountain' shape.

AI Agent Total Market Cap Plummets 67%, Underlying Competition Between Solana and Base Chains, Can Old MEME Ride the AI Wave to Survive?_aicoin_Image4

GOAT Market Cap Trend Chart

However, from the overall market changes, this trend is not unique to AI Agent tokens. In contrast, other categories of MEME coins exhibit a similar trend. In terms of the proportion of top market caps, AI Agent tokens may still be the highest type. Currently, there are only two MEME tokens on the Solana chain with market caps exceeding $1 billion: TRUMP and BONK. In November 2024, there were still 6 MEME tokens with market caps reaching $1 billion.

Overall, the current total market cap of AI tokens in the crypto space is approximately $6.67 billion, which is a significant pullback from the peak of $22 billion. However, in terms of the actual functions and capabilities of these AI agents, there has yet to be an explosive application, and the vast majority of AI agents are still simply tweeting or riding the AI hype. Perhaps because of this, the volatility of AI tokens closely resembles that of MEME coins, showing no signs of the expected value logic. As for whether the current market cap of AI tokens is undervalued, it is worth noting that the globally popular DeepSeek was reported to have a valuation of only $8 billion on February 9. At least from this comparative perspective, the bubble of AI Agents still seems quite significant.

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