The entire Memecoin market has been almost eliminated by the market.

Author: Viktor

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

January Major Events:

• The focus of this month was the launch of the $TRUMP token, followed by the introduction of the $MELANIA token and the related inauguration. However, I will discuss these topics in detail in the following sections.

• In January, three major centralized exchange (CEX) tokens were launched on Binance: $BIO (the core protocol of decentralized science DeSci), $SONIC (possibly a Solana-based gaming Layer 2), and $ANIME (the token of the Azuki ecosystem). However, these tokens have shown a downward price trend since their token generation event (TGE). The same situation occurred with $VVV, an AI project launched by Erik Voorhees, which has seen a price drop of -65% since its listing on Coinbase.

• On December 31, Elon changed his Twitter name and avatar to "Kekius Maximus," which propelled the market cap of the $KEKIUS Memecoin from $1M to $400M. However, after he reverted the name and avatar on January 1, the market cap of $KEKIUS quickly fell back to $80M and ended the month at a market cap of $40M.

• The Memecoin $TOSHI on the Base platform went live on January 14, doubling in price in a short time. In the following days, the price entered a frenzy mode, soaring nearly 8 times in 3 days, despite extremely negative funding rates, but ultimately fell back -40% from its peak. This wave also drove up other Base platform Memecoins, including MIGGLES, MIGGLES, BENJI, $KEYCAT, $DOGINME, and $MOCHI.

• The Layer 2 Abstract developed by the Pudgy Penguins team officially launched on January 28. However, after the announcement, the market experienced a "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon, leading to a 44% drop in $PENGU within two days.

• CME announced that it would launch futures for $XRP and $SOL on February 10, indicating that the market is moving towards launching ETFs for these two tokens. This news was released on January 22, and although it initially triggered a price increase, the gains were quickly reversed, showing signs of market weakness.

• Bitwise submitted ETF (exchange-traded fund) applications for $DOGE and $LTC on January 21 and January 24, respectively. While the market reaction to $DOGE was relatively muted, $LTC performed very strongly after the application news was released.

• That weekend on January 26, the entire tech industry was ignited by a Chinese AI startup called DeepSeek. This company launched a cost-effective AI model that can match the performance of industry giants while significantly reducing resource consumption. This news led to panic selling in traditional financial markets before the opening, and when CME opened, $BTC and other altcoins also saw significant declines. On January 27 (Monday), $NVDA's stock price dropped -17%, while $BTC fell from $105k to $98k in just a few hours.

• Thorchain ($RUNE) faced a technical insolvency issue, with liabilities of up to $200 million on BTC and ETH, forcing it to suspend all lending and savings services. As a result, $RUNE's price dropped -52% in January. The community is currently actively seeking recovery solutions.

January Major Narratives:

Inauguration and News-Driven $BTC Price Movements

In January, the price movements of $BTC were primarily driven by news. The price rose strongly at the beginning of the month, reaching $102k on the first trading day of the new year (January 6). However, good employment data released on January 7 hinted at a reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts, which directly led to $BTC falling below $100k and hitting $92k on January 10. On January 13 (Monday), after briefly dipping below $90k, the price rebounded quickly, rising back to $100k within two days, and climbed to $106k on January 19 (the day before the inauguration).

However, on the day of the inauguration, the launch of the $MELANIA token caused $BTC to briefly fall below $90k, but in the hours before the ceremony, we witnessed $BTC set a new all-time high (ATH) of $109k. The market pattern during this period was largely consistent: before the event, investors worried about "what if the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR) is announced?" which pushed the price up, but when people realized there was no SBR announcement, the price began to fall back.

Finally, on January 23, the U.S. released an executive order (EO) regarding cryptocurrencies. This order established a digital working group responsible for "advising on regulatory and legislative proposals related to cryptocurrencies." One of the suggestions specifically mentioned "the potential establishment and maintenance of a national digital asset reserve."

The market initially reacted optimistically to this news, especially altcoins, as they might be included in the reserve. However, as people realized that this was still far from a real SBR, prices began to stagnate. Substantial progress in this area is expected to take months.

As mentioned earlier, $BTC plummeted on January 27 due to the DeepSeek news but then rebounded to $106k and ultimately closed at $102k, recording a +10% monthly increase (in contrast, most altcoins closed with red candles, and $BTC's market dominance continued to rise).

The Issuance of TRUMP and MELANIA Tokens

On January 18, Donald Trump announced the launch of his official Memecoin on Solana, named $TRUMP, shocking everyone. Initially, people thought it was a hack, but it was soon confirmed to be true. $TRUMP quickly became a "liquidity black hole," with its fully diluted valuation (FDV) skyrocketing from $1 billion to nearly $30 billion in just 12 hours, as many traders sold other Memecoins to chase $TRUMP. Despite the extremely unreasonable token distribution (80% allocated to insiders), $TRUMP reached an FDV of $75 billion on January 19, primarily driven by short covering.

Then, on the night of January 19, the $MELANIA token went live, causing $TRUMP to plummet -50% within 3 hours, and the entire market followed suit. $BTC fell below $100k, and $SOL dropped from nearly $300 just hours earlier to $230. The FDV of $MELANIA briefly soared to $13 billion but quickly collapsed to less than $400 million within a day.

By the end of January, the prices of $TRUMP and $MELANIA continued to decline ($TRUMP fell from $48 to $21, and $MELANIA from $4 to $1.5). Given their extremely poor token economics, I do not recommend holding these tokens.

New ATH for $XRP and the "American Themed Token" Narrative

On January 16, an article in the New York Post mentioned that Trump might consider establishing a strategic reserve composed of American "digital tokens." Although this claim is clearly unrealistic, it sparked market interest in "American themed tokens," such as $XRP, $HBAR, and $XLM. Driven by this news, both XRP and HBAR reached new cycle highs, with $XRP's price hitting $3.4, corresponding to an FDV of $340 billion.

Since then, XRP's price highs have gradually declined, but in terms of market strength, especially considering its market cap size, XRP remains one of the best-performing tokens. However, I believe its upside potential is now very limited.

$SOL Sets New ATH of $295

In the $TRUMP Memecoin event, the biggest winner was undoubtedly Solana and its ecosystem. The price of $SOL surged significantly after the token launch, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $295. Additionally, the SOLETH (the price ratio of Solana to ETH) also reached a new high of 0.09. Although $SOL fell back to $230 by the end of the month, the Solana ecosystem remains one of the most dynamic areas currently. Other standout ecosystem tokens include decentralized exchange (DEX) tokens $JUP and $RAY.

For Solana's DEX aggregator Jupiter, January was a significant month. As one of the most commonly used applications on Solana, Jupiter launched its second round of airdrop activities (if you qualify, remember to claim it!) and announced the acquisition of Moonshot, a mobile app that allows users to seamlessly purchase Memecoins on the Solana chain. Furthermore, Jupiter announced that 50% of the fees collected would be returned to $JUP token holders, further boosting market confidence in $JUP.

SUI Sets New High of $54 Billion FDV Before Trend Reversal

Since early August, $SUI has been performing strongly in the market, and this momentum continued into early January, with its fully diluted valuation (FDV) reaching a new historical high (ATH) of $54 billion. However, the upward momentum began to weaken thereafter. On January 20, $SUI fell below the 50-day moving average (50D), which it had not breached since September, indicating that the market trend may have begun to reverse. The following days further confirmed this, as during the end-of-month sell-off on January 27, the price of $SUI briefly touched $3.5.

$FARTCOIN: The Best Performing Memecoin This Month

In this month's Memecoin market, $FARTCOIN was the strongest performer. When the $TRUMP token launch caused other Memecoins to plummet, $FARTCOIN rebounded the fastest. The market performance a few days later further proved its strength, with $FARTCOIN's market cap soaring from $1.5 billion to a peak of $2.75 billion before the inauguration. As a "high volatility token," $FARTCOIN's price fluctuations are extremely dramatic, with each rise and fall being further amplified. Currently, $FARTCOIN's market cap has significantly retreated from its peak to about $700 million, a drop of -75%.

VINE and JELLYJELLY: The Start of a New Trend?

The founder of Vine (one of the predecessors of TikTok) launched a Memecoin called $VINE. This token quickly attracted a large trading volume, with its market cap once soaring to nearly $500 million, but then plummeting to $100 million, before rebounding to $400 million. The strong performance of $VINE is backed by a market speculation concept: people speculate that Twitter might integrate Vine into its platform. This speculation stems from calls by Rus and hints from some former Twitter employees. However, I believe this possibility is minimal, and the market may be chasing a false concept, which Rus himself may not even believe.

The launch of VINE may mark the beginning of a new trend: traditional Web2 founders or companies raising funds and attracting public attention to their products through the issuance of Memecoins. For example, a few days ago, the co-founder of Venmo launched a Memecoin called JELLYJELLY, which is said to be related to the Jelly Jelly app he developed. The market cap of this token reached $250 million in just a few hours but then fell sharply, currently down -90% from its peak.

Murad Series Tokens Reach New Highs

The two main tokens of the Murad series, $SPX and $GIGA, experienced a strong rebound in January. $GIGA's market cap reached a new all-time high (ATH) of nearly $1 billion, while $SPX broke through the $1 billion resistance level and peaked at a market cap of $1.75 billion after the $TRUMP token launch.

Although the market caps of $SPX and $GIGA have significantly retreated from their peaks, their pullbacks have been much milder compared to most Memecoins, showing relatively robust performance.

AI Agents and the Collapse of Memecoins

In January, most Memecoins performed poorly. For example, $WIF fell from $2.2 to $1, and $POPCAT dropped from $1 to $0.32. Many popular Memecoins from the past few months saw declines of over -90%, such as GOAT, PNUT, CHILLGUY, NEIRO, MOODENG, and FWOG. It can be said that the entire Memecoin market has been almost eliminated by the market.

AI tokens also experienced a tough month, with declines similar to those of Memecoins. The entire AI Agent sector peaked in early January (for example, VIRTUAL's market cap reached $5 billion, and AI16Z reached $2.5 billion), but the performance of these tokens has continued to weaken since then. Although some AI tokens briefly touched highs afterward, such as $ARC ($600 million), $GRIFFAIN ($600 million), $AVA ($320 million), and $PIPPIN ($300 million), overall, AI tokens have become one of the worst-performing categories this month.

Best Performing Tokens List

Best Performing Large Cap Tokens in January:

• XRP: +46%

• RAY: +45%

• OM: +39%

• LDO: +32%

• JUP: +27%

• LINK: +26%

• XLM: +25%

• LTC: +24%

• XMR: +24%

• SOL: +22%

• HBAR: +14%

• HYPE: +12%

• ONDO: +11%

• AAVE: +8%

Notable Small Cap Tokens in January:

• XCN: x14

• TOSHI: +720%

• DEEP: +175%

• GT: +43%

• SPX: +38%

• KCS: +33%

• CULT: +27%

• MOCHI: +317%

• BENJI: +178%

• DOGINME: +171%

• USA: $15M → $320M → $20M

• UFD: $60M → $400M (peak)

• MUSKIT: $10M → $400M → $25M

• MLG: $3M → $160M (peak)

• LLM: $1M → $120M (peak)

• BUTTHOLE: $1M → $120M (peak)

• ALON: $1M → $250M → $6M

• PIPPIN: $7M → $320M (peak)

• SWARMS: $80M → $600M → $60M

• BUZZ: $20M → $180M (peak)

• ANON: $15M → $300M (peak)

• AVA: $50M → $320M (peak)

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