The market expects a significant shift in the United States' attitude towards cryptocurrencies, which will support a range of industry areas such as stablecoins, token issuance rules, taxation, and compliance reporting.
Written by: Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital
Translated by: Bai Shui, Golden Finance
I discussed the intersection of public markets and cryptocurrencies with the team at Galaxy Digital, which led to an interesting point—regulators are also about to undergo a major change.
A guest article by Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, explains our situation, the changes currently happening, and where he believes we are headed. I hope this information and perspective are valuable to everyone.
Here is Alex's guest article:
Bitcoin is the biggest winner of the election so far. Since November 5, the world's oldest and largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has risen by 40%, and there is reason to believe that there will be more gains in the future.
Other crypto assets will also benefit. Investors expect a shift in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) attitude towards digital assets, and many have already written about how a relaxation or rollback of the SEC's classification of crypto assets as securities will support the crypto market and its stakeholders.
Less discussed is how the public markets will benefit from the new practices surrounding U.S. digital assets. Since Coinbase went public through a direct listing in 2021, only Bitcoin miners and a few small SPACs have successfully tapped into the public markets. Current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler took office on April 17, 2021, just four days after Coinbase's direct listing, and since then, the public markets have essentially been closed to crypto companies. But all of this is about to change. The public markets are about to get a taste of cryptocurrencies.
There may have been signs of this shift in recent weeks. The Japanese cryptocurrency exchange CoinCheck announced that it has received approval to go public through a U.S. SPAC. This will be the first cryptocurrency exchange to gain public market status in the U.S. since Coinbase, but it will not be the last. SPAC shareholders Thunder Bridge IV (stock code: THCP) will vote on the merger on December 5 (Wednesday), with the merger expected to be completed around December 10.
Currently, investable cryptocurrency stocks in the U.S. include Coinbase, Bitcoin miners, balance sheet holders (like MicroStrategy), and a range of fintech companies related to cryptocurrencies, such as PayPal and Robinhood. However, the anticipated change in the leadership and posture of the SEC may ultimately open the public markets to crypto companies in a meaningful way, leading to a massive expansion of the crypto stock market.
The expansion of the crypto stock space, including exchanges, brokerages, data companies, infrastructure providers, etc., is a boon for both venture capitalists and public market investors. According to my estimates, at least 300 startups have raised $50 million or more in venture funding since 2018, with over 50 raising $100 million or more. Venture capitalists may help revive the sluggish venture funding environment of the past two years, while public market investors will gain more ways to invest in this growing industry.
Widening pathways to the public markets will also revitalize the entrepreneurial environment for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. The current posture of the SEC incentivizes venture capitalists to focus on complex token-based trading rather than traditional businesses, which could harm the entire crypto ecosystem. Certain stock startups, particularly those directly dealing with digital assets, such as exchanges and brokerages, have largely moved overseas. However, changes in the regulatory environment and an open public market could rejuvenate entrepreneurial activity in the U.S., leading to more job opportunities and capital formation.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not illegal in the U.S., but for the past four years, banks and market regulators have been working to stifle their growth or shut them down entirely. Jurisdictions such as the UK, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore have taken advantage of this restrictive posture in the U.S. to establish clear regulatory frameworks and lure companies away from the U.S., but this situation is about to change.
The market expects a significant shift in the United States' attitude towards cryptocurrencies, which will support a range of industry areas such as stablecoins, token issuance rules, taxation, and compliance reporting. But don't forget the public markets. This is a new dawn for digital assets in the U.S., and the public markets may seriously join this party.
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