Multiple industries may begin to tokenize "unconventional" assets.

Author: a16z Research Team

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Editor's Note: a16z has released a list of "major ideas" based on insights from its partners in fields such as AI, U.S. dynamics, bio/health, cryptocurrency, enterprise, fintech, gaming, and infrastructure, highlighting themes that technology developers may focus on in the coming year. Below are some key points that excite the a16z cryptocurrency team. For insights on policies, regulations, and more for 2025, please refer to this article from November 2024.

AI Needs Its Own Wallet for Autonomous Action

As AI evolves from NPCs (non-player characters) to protagonists, they will begin to act as agents. However, until recently, AI has not been able to autonomously engage in market activities such as exchanging value, revealing preferences, and coordinating resources.

We have already seen AI agents (like @truth_terminal) trading with cryptocurrency, opening the door to various creative content opportunities. But AI agents have even greater potential, not only to fulfill human intentions but also to become independent network participants. As AI agent networks begin to manage their own crypto wallets, signature keys, and crypto assets, new and interesting use cases will emerge. For example, AI could operate or verify nodes in decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), such as assisting in distributed energy. Other use cases include AI agents becoming truly high-value players in games. We may even see the first blockchain owned and operated by AI.

Introducing "Decentralized Autonomous Chatbots"

In addition to AI owning wallets, there is also an AI chatbot running in a Trusted Execution Environment (TEE). TEE provides an isolated environment to securely execute applications, allowing for safer distributed system designs. In this case, TEE is used to prove that the bot is autonomous and not under human control.

Expanding further, the next big idea here is a Decentralized Autonomous Chatbot (DAC). Such chatbots could build followings by publishing engaging content, whether entertainment or informative. They would establish followings on decentralized social media; generate income from audiences in various ways; and manage their assets in cryptocurrency. The relevant keys would be managed by the TEE running the chatbot software—meaning that no one other than the software can access these keys.

With the potential for increased risks, regulatory measures may need to be introduced. But the key is decentralization: operating on a permissionless set of nodes and coordinated by consensus protocols, chatbots could even become the first truly autonomous billion-dollar entities.

As More People Use AI, We Will Need Unique Authentication

In a world filled with online impersonation, scams, multiple identities, deepfakes, and other realistic yet deceptive AI-generated content, we need "proof of humanity"—to help us confirm that we are interacting with actual people. However, the new issue here is not fake content; rather, it is the ability to produce such content at a lower cost. AI has significantly reduced the marginal cost of producing content that contains all the cues we use to judge whether something is "real."

Therefore, there is a greater need than ever for methods to digitally link content to individuals privately. "Proof of humanity" is an important component of establishing digital identity. But here, it becomes a mechanism to increase the marginal cost of attacking an individual or undermining network integrity: obtaining a unique ID is free for humans but expensive and difficult for AI.

This is why the privacy-preserving "uniqueness" attribute is the next big idea for building networks we can trust. It addresses not just proof of humanity; it fundamentally changes the cost structure for malicious actors to attack. Thus, the "uniqueness attribute"—or Sybil resistance—is a non-negotiable attribute of any proof of humanity system.

From Prediction Markets to More Efficient Information Aggregation

In 2024, prediction markets will be in the spotlight due to the U.S. elections, but as an economist researching market design, I do not believe that prediction markets themselves will bring revolutionary changes in 2025. Instead, prediction markets pave the way for technology-based distributed information aggregation mechanisms that can be applied across various fields, from community governance and sensor networks to finance.

The past year has proven this concept, but it is important to note that prediction markets themselves are not always the ideal way to aggregate information: even for global "macro" events, they may not be reliable enough; for more "micro" issues, the prediction pools may be too small to provide meaningful information. However, researchers and technologists have developed many incentive frameworks over the years that encourage people to share their knowledge truthfully in different information environments—from data pricing and purchasing mechanisms to "Bayesian truth serum" for obtaining subjective assessments—many of which have already been applied in crypto projects.

Blockchain has always been an ideal choice for implementing these mechanisms—not only because of its decentralized nature but also because it facilitates open, auditable incentive schemes. Importantly, blockchain also makes results public, allowing everyone to interpret these results in real-time.

Businesses Will Gradually Embrace Stablecoin Payments

Stablecoins have found market fit over the past year, which is not surprising, as they are the most economical way to send dollars, enabling fast global payments. Stablecoins also provide entrepreneurs with a more accessible platform to develop new payment products: no intermediaries, minimum balances, or proprietary SDKs. However, large enterprises have yet to realize the significant cost savings and new profit margins that can be achieved by adopting these payment methods.

While we have seen some businesses show interest in stablecoins (as well as early adoption in peer-to-peer payments), I expect 2025 to bring a wave of larger-scale experiments. Small and medium-sized enterprises with strong brands, established customer bases, and high payment costs—such as restaurants, coffee shops, and convenience stores—will be the first to shift from credit card payments to stablecoins. Due to face-to-face transactions, they do not benefit from credit card fraud protection and are also most affected by transaction fees (a 30-cent fee on a cup of coffee can significantly impact profits!).

We should also expect larger enterprises to turn to stablecoins. If stablecoins can accelerate banking development, then businesses will attempt to disintermediate payment providers, directly adding 2% to their bottom line. Companies will also begin seeking new solutions to address issues currently managed by credit card companies, such as fraud protection and identity verification.

Countries Are Exploring On-Chain Government Bonds

Tokenizing government bonds will create a government-backed, interest-bearing digital asset while avoiding the surveillance issues associated with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). These products could provide a new source of collateral demand for lending and derivatives protocols in decentralized finance (DeFi), further enhancing the integrity and stability of these ecosystems.

Therefore, as governments around the world that support innovation further explore the advantages and efficiencies of public, permissionless, and immutable blockchains this year, some countries may experiment with issuing on-chain government bonds. For example, the UK has already explored digital securities through its financial regulator FCA's sandbox program; its Treasury has also expressed intent to issue digital bonds.

In the U.S., as the SEC will require the clearing of government bonds through traditional, cumbersome, and expensive infrastructure next year, there is expected to be more discussion on how blockchain can enhance the transparency, efficiency, and participation in bond trading.

We Will Witness the Widespread Adoption of "DUNA" in U.S. Blockchain Networks

In 2024, Wyoming passed a new law that officially recognizes decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) as legal entities. DUNA, or "Decentralized Unincorporated Nonprofit Association," is specifically designed to achieve decentralized governance in blockchain networks and is currently the only viable structure for U.S. projects. By incorporating DUNA into the decentralized legal entity structure, crypto projects and other decentralized communities can grant legal status to their DAOs, thereby facilitating greater economic activity while protecting token holders from legal liabilities and managing tax and compliance requirements.

DAOs are communities that manage the affairs of open blockchain networks, and they are essential tools to ensure that the network remains open, non-discriminatory, and does not unfairly extract value. DUNA can unlock the potential of DAOs, and several projects are already actively implementing this structure. As the U.S. plans to promote and accelerate the development of its crypto ecosystem in 2025, I expect DUNA to become the standard for U.S. projects. We also anticipate that other states will adopt similar structures (Wyoming was the first to take this step; they were also the first state to adopt the now widely used limited liability company (LLC))… especially as other decentralized applications outside of crypto (such as physical infrastructure/energy grids) rise.

Liquid Democracy Moves from Online to Offline

As dissatisfaction with existing governance and voting systems grows, now is a great time to experiment with new technology-supported governance models—not just online, but in the real world. I have previously written about how DAOs and other decentralized communities enable us to study political systems, behaviors, and rapidly evolving governance experiments on a large scale. But what if we could apply these learnings to real-world governance through blockchain?

We can utilize blockchain for secure, private election voting, starting with low-risk pilot projects to mitigate concerns about cybersecurity and auditing. More importantly, blockchain can allow us to experiment with "liquid democracy" at the local level—where people can vote directly on issues or delegate their votes. This concept was originally proposed by Lewis Carroll (the author of "Alice's Adventures in Wonderland" and a researcher of voting systems), but it has been impractical for large-scale application… until now. Recent advancements in computing and connectivity, along with the development of blockchain technology, make new forms of representative democracy possible. Crypto projects are already applying this concept, generating a wealth of data on how these systems operate—see our recent research findings—that local governments and communities can learn from.

Reusing Infrastructure Will Become a Trend

Last year, many teams continuously experimented with innovations in the blockchain technology stack—developing new sets of validators, consensus protocol implementations, execution engines, programming languages, and RPC APIs. These innovations sometimes improved specific functionalities but often lacked broader or fundamental capabilities. Take the specialized programming language for SNARKs as an example: while an ideal implementation might allow ideal developers to generate more efficient SNARKs, in practice, it may fall short in areas like compiler optimization, developer tools, online learning resources, and AI programming support (at least for now)… and could even lead to less efficient SNARKs.

Therefore, I expect that in 2025, more teams will leverage others' contributions and reuse more off-the-shelf blockchain infrastructure components—from consensus protocols and existing collateral to proof systems. This approach will not only help developers save significant time and effort but also enable them to focus on enhancing the unique value of their products/services.

The infrastructure has matured to support the building of prime-time web3 products and services. Like other industries, these products and services will be built by teams that can successfully navigate complex supply chains, rather than those that scoff at "non-original" solutions.

Crypto Companies Will Start from User Experience, Not Letting Infrastructure Dictate It

Despite the diverse and impressive blockchain technology infrastructure, many crypto companies do not actively choose their infrastructure; rather, the infrastructure has, to some extent, chosen them, thereby influencing the user experience (UX). This is because the technical choices at the infrastructure level directly determine the user experience of blockchain products or services.

However, I believe the industry will overcome this conceptual barrier: it is not the technology that should dictate the ultimate user experience, but rather the user experience that should drive the selection of appropriate technology. In 2025, more crypto product designers will start from their desired user experience and then choose the corresponding infrastructure. Crypto startups will no longer need to overly rely on specific infrastructure decisions before finding product market fit; they can truly focus on finding product-market fit.

We can abstract these choices into a holistic, full-stack, plug-and-play approach, rather than getting bogged down in specific Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), wallet providers, intent architectures, etc. The industry is ready: rich programmable block space, mature developer tools, and chain abstraction are beginning to enable more people to design in the crypto space. Most technical users do not care what language a product uses daily. The same situation will begin to occur in the crypto space.

"Hiding Technical Details" Will Drive Killer Applications for Web3

The technical advantages of blockchain make it unique, but they also hinder its mainstream application. For creators and fans, blockchain offers opportunities for connection, ownership, and monetization. However, industry jargon (like "NFTs," "zkRollups," etc.) and complex designs pose barriers to those who would benefit the most. I have personally felt this in conversations with executives from the media, music, and fashion industries interested in web3.

The mass adoption of many consumer technologies has followed this path: starting with technology, some iconic companies or designers simplified the complexity, leading to the emergence of breakthrough applications. Think of the starting point of email—SMTP protocol hidden behind the "send" button; or credit cards, where most users today do not care about the technical details of payment. Similarly, Spotify revolutionized music not by showcasing file formats but by providing convenient playlists. As Nassim Taleb said, "Overdesign leads to fragility; simplicity scales."

Therefore, I believe our industry will adopt this philosophy in 2025: "hiding technical details." The best decentralized applications have already focused on more intuitive interfaces, making their operation as simple as clicking a screen or swiping a card. In 2025, we will see more companies design simply and communicate clearly; successful products will not need explanations; they will directly solve problems.

The Crypto Industry Finally Has Its Own App Store and Discovery Mechanism

When crypto applications are blocked by centralized platforms like the Apple App Store or Google Play, their user acquisition is limited. However, we are now seeing emerging app stores and marketplaces providing this distribution and discovery functionality without setting barriers. For example, Worldcoin's World App marketplace not only stores identity verification but also allows access to "mini-apps," bringing hundreds of thousands of users to multiple applications in just a few days. Another example is the fee-free dApp store for Solana phone users. These examples show that hardware (like phones and devices) could be a key advantage for crypto app stores, just as Apple devices were crucial to the early app ecosystem.

At the same time, there are other stores with thousands of decentralized applications and web3 developer tools spread across popular blockchain ecosystems (e.g., Alchemy); as well as blockchains serving as game publishing and distribution platforms (like Ronin). However, this is not limited to entertainment and gaming: if a product has distribution on certain channels (like messaging apps), it is challenging to transition it to the chain (with exceptions like the Telegram/TON network). The same is true for applications with significant web2 distribution. But we may see more of these transitions in 2025.

Crypto Holders Will Become Active Users

In 2024, cryptocurrency made significant progress as a political movement, with many policymakers and politicians expressing positive attitudes toward it. At the same time, it continues to develop as a financial movement (for example, how exchange-traded products (ETPs) for Bitcoin and Ethereum have expanded investor participation). By 2025, cryptocurrency should further evolve into a computational movement. So, where will the new users come from?

I believe it is time to re-engage those currently "passive" crypto holders and convert them into more active users. Currently, only 5-10% of crypto holders are actively using cryptocurrencies. We can bring the 617 million people who already own cryptocurrencies into the world of blockchain, especially as blockchain infrastructure continues to improve and user transaction costs decrease. This means that new applications will continuously emerge for both existing and new users. At the same time, early applications we have already seen, such as stablecoins, decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, gaming, social, decentralized infrastructure networks (DePIN), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and prediction markets, are also becoming more user-friendly for the average user, as communities focus more on user experience and other improvements.

Multiple Industries May Begin Tokenizing "Unconventional" Assets

As the infrastructure in the crypto industry and other emerging technologies matures, leading to cost reductions, the practice of asset tokenization will be widely applied across various industries. This will enable assets that have been considered untouchable due to high costs or lack of value recognition to not only achieve liquidity but, more importantly, to participate in the global economy. Artificial intelligence engines can also use this information as unique datasets.

Just as hydraulic fracturing technology unlocked oil reserves that were once thought to be unextractable, tokenizing unconventional assets could redefine revenue models in the digital age. Seemingly sci-fi scenarios become more plausible: for example, individuals could tokenize their biometric data and then rent this information to companies through smart contracts. We have already seen some early examples, such as decentralized science (DeSci) companies introducing more ownership, transparency, and consent in medical data collection through blockchain technology. We do not yet fully understand how such a future will develop, but these advancements will enable people to leverage previously undeveloped assets in a decentralized manner, rather than relying on governments and centralized intermediaries to provide these assets.

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