Author: Metaquant

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Not everyone can succeed in this cycle.

You need to change your mindset and step outside the conventional thinking framework. The ranking of the Coinbase app cannot tell you when the market peak will arrive.

Start thinking from different perspectives.

"When a metric becomes a target, it is no longer a good metric."

In other words, when we set a specific goal, people often pursue that goal blindly, neglecting other equally important factors.

Additionally, I want to say that most of the peak signals mentioned this time on CT may no longer apply.

The obvious peak signals from 2017 were no longer apparent in 2021, and it will be the same in 2024-25.

We are entering a rapid growth phase of cryptocurrency adoption, where now all retailers understand cryptocurrency—some had heard of it in 2017, and by 2021 almost everyone had. Do not mistake signs of adoption for peak signals. Do not let past traumas affect your judgment.

Another shift to note is the change in influence—companies like BlackRock now control Bitcoin. They are major ETF providers and hold shares in each other.

Therefore, they can now influence BTC market sentiment. They also control many media platforms and can guide public opinion at will.

In other words, if this market rally is primarily driven by institutional investors, then traditional retail indicators become less important. The key indicators of this cycle will come from those who have yet to enter the market. Yes, it may be those retail investors who have not yet been exposed to cryptocurrency—“late majority” and “laggards”—but you need to think from a more macro perspective.

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Imagine that countries with sovereign wealth funds begin to diversify their investments into Bitcoin. Some countries have already invested in stocks, so this scenario is possible.

• Saudi Arabia - $400 billion

• Abu Dhabi - $800 billion

• China - $1 trillion

• Norway - $1 trillion

• Australia - $150 billion

• Qatar - $300 billion

• Singapore - $500 billion

Corporate Finance

In 2021, we saw Tesla purchase Bitcoin, and recently Reddit disclosed part of its cryptocurrency holdings. This trend has just begun. When you see more and more companies diversifying their assets into cryptocurrency daily, it may be time to consider reducing risk.

Stock Market Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

Coinbase's IPO in 2021 was the first significant crypto company to go public in the stock market. This time, we may see dozens of crypto companies go public, with one of these listings potentially marking the market peak.

Over-Leveraging

In the final stages of a bull market, large hedge funds, companies, and even small countries may over-leverage, ultimately suffering losses, which could be another scenario we see in this cycle.

Rehypothecation Crisis

The next collapse similar to Luna may stem from the rehypothecation space and could trigger a bear market. It seems many people overlook the significant impact that events like de-pegging or haircut events could have in this area.

Gold Reserves

The ultimate peak signal may be when governments diversify a portion of their gold reserves into Bitcoin—referred to as "digital gold."

Some Additional Minor Signals

Labor Shortages in Low-Income Countries

Another significant signal is the labor shortage in low-income countries, as these workers earn $300 to $600 a month mapping roads through hivemapper or other DePIN projects, which is higher than their usual wages. In the last cycle, Axie and StepN had similar occurrences on a small scale, and this time it may happen on a larger scale.

Las Vegas Sphere

In 2021, Times Square was filled with various low-quality meme coin advertisements. In this cycle, cryptocurrency ads playing continuously for weeks on the Las Vegas Sphere will become a similar phenomenon.

Funding Rounds

A relatively reliable signal is to observe the flow of venture capital funding. When funding rounds surge, potentially exceeding traditional financial investments, this may be an indicator to consider exiting the market.

"Financial markets are often unpredictable. Therefore, we must be prepared for different scenarios… The idea that you can accurately predict future developments contradicts the way I observe the market." — George Soros.

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