The 2024 U.S. presidential election is approaching, entering the final sprint phase. According to market data, Trump's probability of winning has reached 65.1%, while Omid Malekan, a part-time professor at Columbia Business School, believes that Trump's election would be bad news for the Meme coin market.
Trump's Counterattack Successful, Calls for His Election High
A week ago, on October 21, the polls showed Harris's support at 49.2% and Trump's at 48.3%, indicating a near tie, with Harris slightly ahead. However, according to the latest market data from Polymarket, as of today (October 28), Trump's probability of winning has surged to 65.1%. With Musk's strong support, Trump’s campaign is gaining momentum.
It should be noted that Polymarket has been controversial, as its open prediction questions have sparked disputes among users. Reports have indicated that some accounts on Polymarket may be controlled by the same individual.
Despite Harris intensifying her attacks on Trump, he has successfully solidified his base through various strategies, including promises to lower taxes and energy bills, as well as a tough stance on immigration policy, leading in several key states. As election day approaches, Trump's chances of winning are increasing, reflecting changes in polling data and the effectiveness of his campaign strategies.
Yesterday (October 27), there was a large turnout of fans at Trump's BIG Don speech.
Image Source: X
Trump's Victory May Be Bad News for Meme Coins
Omid Malekan, a part-time professor at Columbia Business School, shared his views on the Memecoin market in a post on social media X on October 26.
He believes that Memecoins are a form of economic populism, a statement against unfairness. Malekan pointed out that if Trump is elected president, it would negatively impact the Memecoin market, as Trump's policies and regulatory trends may refocus the cryptocurrency market on decentralized applications (DApps) and other substantive projects, rather than assets like Memecoins that are more based on community hype and speculation.
Malekan further explained that the regulatory environment in the U.S. is unfavorable for Memecoins, as it would shift the market's focus to more valuable projects, potentially leading to a prolonged bear market where most people may lose money on Memecoins.
He also mentioned that due to pressure from Senator Elizabeth Warren and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, venture capital-backed tokens are being forced into the cryptocurrency space, and the "Republican sweep" may bring initial coin offerings (ICOs), fully open token airdrops, and other token projects back to the market.
From these viewpoints, it is clear that Malekan believes Trump's election could bring a clearer and stricter regulatory environment, which may negatively impact the Memecoin market by reducing speculative behavior and shifting focus to projects with more practical applications and value. This change could lower the heat in the Memecoin market, putting pressure on its prices and market capitalization.
Nic Carter, co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, also pointed out that the current trading frenzy of meme coins is a market reaction to the SEC's oppressive regulatory regime. If the SEC could adopt a more rational regulatory approach, the market demand for meme coin trading might decrease.
Conclusion
Trump's election may negatively impact the meme coin market due to its conflict with the economic populism represented by meme coins, as well as the uncertainty of his policies and potential for a looser regulatory environment. In this political context, the Memecoin market may face new challenges and opportunities, and investors need to closely monitor Trump's policy direction and the market's response.
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