The market has evolved without me knowing?

In the past week, the on-chain market of ETH mainnet can no longer be simply described as "lively". A single statement from Old Bao about interest rate cuts has brought the already active on-chain market back to life: there's a golden dog every day, and on the weekend, there are two or three waves of market movements. The mainnet Gas also soared to around 70Gwei at one point, making it expensive to even breathe on the chain.

From finding concepts to rolling angles, the "no handover" sentiment has spread to MEME

Specifically, the recent on-chain market itself can be accurately described as a "struggle for dominance". While the weekend passed in the blink of an eye for the working class, for the on-chain players, it was quite saturated and fulfilling.

The founder of Doge, Musk's "Mars City" plan, Trump's silver coin, and various other concepts with their full range of tokens took turns to enter the market. It seems like it would be a waste of the emotional and liquidity wave on the chain without introducing new concepts.

However, at this stage of market evolution, new concepts are obviously not enough to satisfy the enthusiasm for PVP. The meme market has upgraded from "finding concepts" to "rolling angles": as soon as a new speculative concept appears, various tokens with the same name emerge one after another like mushrooms, and new, old, big, and small angles take turns to enter the market.

Not to mention the explosion of Musk's "Mars City" over the weekend, which has led to several major market targets: $TERMINUS (Mars City name 1), $BAR (Mars City name 2), various space shuttles, interstellar hotels, astronaut dogs… not to mention that each coin also has to differentiate between uppercase and lowercase.

It is obvious that the phenomenon of "no handover" has been subdivided into the meme market. If you buy uppercase, I will buy lowercase. If you push three points of D.O.G.E, I will push four points of D.O.G.E. Everyone is playing their own game. The behavior of various masters frantically finding angles seems to be vying for the "ultimate interpretation" of this narrative, until more and more people recognize this angle, and ultimately win in the upgraded version of PVP. In order not to give others a chance, everyone is indeed going all out.

The rotation of various narratives brings one multi-million market value after another, and various stories of sudden wealth also emerge one after another. However, in the on-chain market where there are "sudden wealth" stories, there are naturally also "sudden losses" stories.

Playing on human weaknesses, are conspiracy groups also playing psychological warfare?

Fragile "Narratives"

Even after winning in many concepts and angles, the Dogecoin players still face many "uncontrollable" threats. Just like the $MISHA in the "V God's Dog" concept, which went from 0 to $20 million in market value in one day, but was halved in market value the next day because of V God's statement "I don't have a dog". During the rapid decline, many holders frantically sold off, and along with the price, many people's dreams of sudden wealth also plummeted.

Yes, some of the so-called "narratives" that rise instantly often do not hold up, and the fragile popularity caused by a celebrity's statement can also be extinguished by a single sentence.

However, this "fragility of narratives" is also being accurately exploited by conspiracy groups, setting one trap after another for players in this passionate weekend.

Hardcore Narratives?

Compared to centralized exchanges, first-level on-chain transactions are more transparent and diverse in terms of information, and individual operations are almost transparent to those who are interested. Therefore, in the on-chain world, the "battle" behavior in trading is more direct and in-your-face.

On Saturday, a token called $DOGGO emerged, with a trend that was straightforward and reached nearly $20 million in market value within four hours of going online, while many people were still enjoying their weekend sleep, $DOGGO had already finished its rally.

Upon further investigation, it turns out that the $DOGGO concept is based on an OG narrative:

Shibetoshi Nakamoto, the founder of Dogecoin $DOGE, had sold all of his $DOGE very early on, which should be familiar to old players. And this time, the $DOGGO project also initially gave 6.56% of the $DOGGO tokens to Shibetoshi Nakamoto, and Shibetoshi Nakamoto did indeed sell all of his $DOGGO. This "sell-off" narrative has been played by many projects before, but this time, Shibetoshi Nakamoto not only "sold off", but also interacted crazily on topics related to $DOGGO.

This interactive behavior of Shibetoshi Nakamoto is no different in the eyes of those who are interested, than an ambiguous "endorsement", and the simple and crude OG narrative of $DOGGO adds a touch of conspiracy group color. Those who are tired of fragile narratives and PVP are not fooled by this, and smart wallets are buying in one after another. So, while many people are still reacting, the price of $DOGGO has been soaring.

Some are standing up, some are buying, the price is rising, and it seems that $DOGGO is not far from the ultimate goal of "going public". However, the subsequent plot of $DOGGO once again made people realize that the on-chain world is not a gentle fantasy land, but has always been a bloody dark forest.

From market manipulation to community takeover, behind the rebirth is the design battle of conspiracy groups?

Reversal of trends

Just as $DOGGO was exploding, the founder of Dogecoin, Shibetoshi Nakamoto, explicitly stated that he was not responsible for any Meme coins, thus denying his previous endorsement of $DOGGO.

With this statement, players who had just been taught a lesson by the fragile narrative of $MISHA a few days ago may have immediately become alert and thought, what should we do now? Run! In addition, with the continuous FUD discourse within the community and the large-scale selling by big wallets, the trend of $DOGGO changed from a rebound to a sell-off.

But this time, $DOGGO did not plummet and eventually go to zero. Instead, after many people panicked and sold off, it immediately rebounded, and the price directly returned to the level before the drop. It even announced the CTO (community takeover) the next day, and the rapid FUD crash at night seemed to have never happened. Even after the announcement of the CTO, $DOGGO's price still experienced a second decline, as if this CTO was also a lie designed by the conspiracy group to trap people. Retail investors panicked again, and $DOGGO's market value dropped to around $6 million, similar to the crash that night.

However, just when many people thought that $DOGGO was really finished this time, yes, the price of $DOGGO reversed again. This time, the market value rallied from $6 million all the way to break through a new high to the range of $20-30 million.

It seems that $DOGGO experienced multiple reversals in just two days, from the "rebirth" of the conspiracy group to the community takeover, and the trust of the community was gradually established. The continuous price increase is also the result of the "community power".

But is it really that simple?

Not a rebirth, more like a washout?

After the $DOGGO incident, some pointed out that this event was not as simple as it seemed. The so-called "rebirth" of $DOGGO seemed more like a series of "washouts", and the community takeover was just an excuse for the deep washout by the conspiracy group.

On-chain player @Mirro7777 stated that he was one of the targets of the $DOGGO washout. He sold about 1% of his $DOGGO chips during the deep night DEV cooperation and negative news, and his address went from profit to loss.

At the same time, user @CryptoRugMunch, who has a deep understanding of conspiracy groups, also stated that the fancy operation of $DOGGO was a textbook case of the conspiracy group playing psychological warfare:

First, crash+FUD to make retail investors panic sell → Announce CTO to temporarily repair the price → Another deep drop to completely destroy retail investor confidence → Retail investors sell off and leave, then the price breaks the previous high

At the same time, @CryptoRugMunch also mentioned that the conspiracy group behind $DOGGO has never left, and each time they act is to make retail investors surrender. Unless you enjoy being a victim of psychological warfare, there are better projects in the market for you to choose.

Summary

The division of concepts and the search for angles due to issues of interest distribution or different consensus is not new. The hard forks of BTC and ETH at the beginning also have similarities in essence. However, unlike a hard fork, which usually has a "dignified" reason, the "division" of Memecoins now is more direct: it is purely for profit. When speculating on a concept, why should I hand it over to you?

In the collision of consensus, different opportunities arise, and the confrontation between conspiracy groups and community takeover is obviously the more recognized mode of confrontation in the current Meme market.

The confrontation between uppercase and lowercase Neiro proves that the community power also has the potential for sudden wealth, and it ignites a wave of enthusiasm for the community takeover narrative.

However, is the situation really that simple?

The market environment is constantly changing, but the fact that the market is a zero-sum game has always remained unchanged. Be flexible according to the situation, don't be blinded by the survivorship bias, and don't blindly go all-in. Always remember that the majority of people still lose money. I wish you well.

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