Do not leave the table.

Organizer: Deep Tide TechFlow

After the conclusion of Token2049 every year, it's time for a short essay. This article selects 8 short essays, allowing you to feel the pulse of encryption in Singapore without going there.

Director Zhao of the Jewish People: Cycles, Dawn, and Liquidity Incompetence

1. Never seen European and American project parties work so hard before

2. In the past, the old white men just talked and made videos, and the Asian market would just shut up and take my money. This year, they even need to hold grand side events, dress themselves up, and even directly solicit business. The last time they worked so hard was when the spiky-haired guys came to Beijing for financing in 2019

3. The information gap between Europe, America, and Asia is still huge

3.1 European and American project parties still think that Asia has money, and want to continue to peel off new assets through continuous splitting, but unfortunately the Asian market really has no money left, not a drop

3.2 As for where the money has gone, the contract products of Asian exchanges have continued the fine tradition, consuming most of the liquidity, and the BTC ecosystem (rune Layer2) has successfully monopolized the asset issuance business in Europe and the United States, forcibly reviving a new track for the Asia-Pacific region, both of which have taken away most of the Asian liquidity

4. The liquidity incompetence of the Asian market also makes it difficult to write short essays in the Chinese area this year. Even after a busy week, participants cannot express any feelings, because whether it's investors, project parties, KOLs, or retail investors, basically they have run out of ammunition, causing this year's participation to be like eunuchs visiting brothels, calm as still water, and even at some moments, surprisingly indifferent to making money

5. After all, those who want to make money are the ones being taken advantage of, and the best way to make money is to go after the person who wants to make money

6. SOL's Breakpoint is the brightest star at this year's Side Event, as for Ethereum, whether it's the foundation or Layer 2, there is no decent event to prove their existence

6.1. If in April, V God was still the "Web3 Han Emperor", then in September, the little V who sold coins can only be "Ethereum's King You of Zhou"

6.2. Singing on stage is just like completing the task of publicly shaming the concubine Bao Si

6.3. Shouting out unclearly to "ban some substandard Layer 2s" really looks like a foolish monarch who loves beauty more than his country, trying to forcibly reduce the power of the vassals

6.4. Really want to see how Web3 "cleans up the emperor's side"

7. As for the cycle, this wave of rise is not a new bull market, but the lingering sound of the 21-22 year cycle**, which is why this year's market trend is infinitely close to 2019. If you don't believe it, look at the altcoins in your portfolio, most of which were issued in 2021. It's not far from 2019 to the start of a new cycle in August 2020, *of course, it's even closer to March 12*

8. The primary market is full of self-pity, and self-pity is a dangerous signal, after all, not investing means death, and investing means seeking death

9. The market will wear down the patience of most people in the fluctuations, and new directions will quietly grow in silence, including:

9.1 DePIN project of Consumer Electronics

9.2 CeDeFi RWA as the underlying collateral issuance stablecoin project (BlackRock Buidl+USDM)

9.3 All on-chain transactions + all tools that increase on-chain leverage (Perp Dex)

10. The new cycle is not far away, but the darkness before dawn is pitch black and the most testing time for mental strength, the combination of traditional finance and Crypto will soon exceed expectations, whether it's the rise of the crypto industry or accepting surrender, what everyone faces is an infinite universe and boundless sea that they have never experienced before

11. You cannot fall before dawn, each of us as the last line of defense in the industry cannot fall, because there is no one behind us

12. A word of encouragement to all: Those who come out of the storm are never relying on an umbrella

Ruby (Incuba Alpha): Industry Shuffling in Progress

1. The industry is shuffling, and small and medium VCs are clearing out, many DPIs cannot reach 1. On the other hand, top VCs continue to grow rapidly, closing new rounds within 5 months. Only investing in early-stage incubators with taste or vertical VCs focusing on the ecosystem can leverage high odds/vertical competitive advantages to find a space for survival.

2. Regulation is the elephant in the room, but Americans are more optimistic about American regulation than the Chinese, accurate assessment of risk is more important than fearing risk, and understanding the risks one faces.

3. MM is still the core player, many new MMs have emerged, and the ability of the founding team to attract MMs has become one of the core competencies, judging the market environment of bear and bull markets, and formulating appropriate MM deal structures.

4. The most discussed application tracks are Socialfi and AI Crypto, AI landing has hard barriers, waiting for the technological breakthrough turning point. pumpfun is the most successful SocialFi, what truly suits Web3's socialfi is not Web3 Twitter, but a socialized casino.

5. Quantitative returns are further compressed, many quantitative teams leaving the A-share market are entering Crypto.

6. BTC, stablecoins/payments, and casinos are the only proven effective business models in the industry. Stablecoins have become the new king of the primary market, but no one can explain how to break the network effect of Tether. Everyone needs to be prepared for a future without new innovations, and if all incremental purchases only buy BTC, what should we do.

7. From an ecosystem perspective: Solana's breakpoint is more lively than the main venue, developers are optimistic about the firedance update breaking Solana's "shutdown chain" curse. "pay now buy never" is attempting to introduce Ponzi into the payment track.

8. The Ton ecosystem's traffic effect is beginning to ferment, the ecosystem is wildly attracting small applications, a few VCs focusing on games are bringing in a group of Web2 game teams, it is currently unclear whether they intend to tear off the fig leaf of false traffic, or use VC and GameFi Ponzi subsidies to convert TG wool party into effective retained users.

9. The AI ecosystem is a bit awkward, after the decentralized AI and Agentfi stages have been refuted, AI projects that have taken a lot of money are starting to roll themselves into a new Alt layer 1.

10. Don't blindly trust authority and agents for listings, exchanges are looking at how many new users a project can bring. Having a good product, brand, and communication is stronger than anything else.

0xLouisT (L1D Partner): ALT L1 Revival, GameFi has been forgotten

1. Fragmentation and attention competition

One of the highlights of Token 2049 is the record number of Side Events (over 600), reflecting the current decentralization of the field.

Projects funded by VCs are obviously competing for attention, striving to surpass each other in activities, banquets, and marketing. I feel that the private placement market is already saturated, with excess funds.

2. SOL and ETH

3. Without a doubt, Solana dominated the discussion. Breakpoint showcased an impressively strong Solana community.

Meanwhile, ETH is still struggling to address its identity crisis. I noticed that some ETH investors lack Bayesian thinking, as they are still trying to update their arguments despite recent data points.

It's worth noting that despite the low market sentiment, most people's ETH holdings have remained almost unchanged. Most of the holders I know have not significantly adjusted their ETH allocations. However, cracks are starting to show as some people are beginning to exchange ETH for SOL.

3. Alt L1 Revival?

Clearly, Solana's success and the philosophical debate with ETH have reignited the new L1 topic like never before. Some claim SOL will be the ETH killer, while others believe that other L1s might be the SOL killer.

Monad and Berachain are receiving a lot of attention, but when I asked people why they are optimistic about it, the main argument boils down to one thing: their TPS is higher than their competitors, and Sui is also frequently mentioned. The question is: do we really need so much block space?

4. L1/L2 Shift to B2B Technology Providers Failing

Over the past year, some primary L1/L2s have been striving to attract attention and usage, and now they are transitioning to become infrastructure providers for Rollups and application chains. These strategic shifts often focus on B2B transactions, which do not create meaningful value for tokens. This trend seems bearish for token holders, but it may be bullish for equity holders.

5. What is Fundamental Analysis?

People are starting to pay attention to the fundamentals of cryptocurrencies again, but market participants seem to disagree on what these fundamentals are: profitability, cash flow, organic vs. inorganic returns, trading volume, transactions, TVL, TPS?

While it makes sense for cryptocurrencies to gradually move closer to fundamentals, I noticed that a high focus on fundamentals and cash flow often coincides with the market bottoming out. As Howard Marks said, when the market is at its lowest point, there is the strongest call for fundamental analysis, as fear drives investors towards quality assets.

6. Aave=DeFi?

The argument for the revival of DeFi is gradually taking shape, however, apart from Aave (which is currently quite common), most investors still do not believe in other DeFi investments… Can I suggest taking a look at Pendle?

7. VCs and Liquidity

At Token 2049, I talked to many primary projects, and they are shifting their focus from venture capital to liquidity funds, with the goal of:

• Liquidity investors: due to the lack of secondary buyers.
• Liquidity providers: as competition for capital and attention intensifies.

Many venture capital firms realize that the situation is changing and are starting to launch liquidity funds. However, due to the lack of liquidity, it is currently difficult to raise funds for these funds. The reason is simple: over the past year, the performance of most secondary funds has been worse than Bitcoin. I still believe that the performance of secondary funds in this cycle will far exceed that of venture capital firms.

8. Infrastructure and Applications

People are slowly but surely admitting that we have lost ourselves in the underlying ivory tower. Cryptocurrencies need more applications and real use cases. DeFi and DePIN are the two most promising areas for new application development. However, I have not heard a consensus of excitement about specific applications.

9. Using Products

I never thought I would say this, but using these products really gives you an advantage. Many investors and researchers write reports as long as 20 pages without actively using the products they analyze, which is crazy.

After countless conversations, I estimate that at least 75% of investors do not actively engage with the products they invest in.

10. Hyperliquid: Perp DEX Chad

Hyperliquid is leading the pack. With a smooth user experience, it has become the preferred exchange for many. People have mixed opinions about it, some love it, some hate it.

Traders are quite transparent: some hold a large number of points and place heavy bets on token issuance. It's hard to predict how it will initially perform, but it's worth keeping a close eye on.

11. Memecoin Still Not Fully Allocated

How to interpret this depends on you, but it's surprising that most institutional funds and whales have a 0% exposure to any memecoin—even DOGE or PEPE.

12. GameFi has been forgotten

I hardly hear anyone mention Web3 games or express excitement about them. I believe we will see the revival of web3 games, as there are currently several projects offering highly attractive R/R based on their valuations—but that's a topic for another day…

Zolo (TechFlow Co-founder): The Industry is Always Driven by Optimists

From WebX, KBW to TOKEN2049, each event has set an all-time high for attendance.

Another year of the conference, what is everyone hyping about this year?

1- Dresscode hype, the trend sparked by berachain has ultimately caught on with everyone, wearing a headscarf is basic, and the best part is that you can even share without wearing clothes, all with the same goal, hoping for visibility.

2- DJ hype, looking at DJ rankings, DJ physique, and even whether the DJ has hair.

3- Award hype, many events this year are giving out awards, most of which are not actually awards, but just social formalities.

Speaking of awards, the most impressive award this year came from Breakpoint, which was also one of the best conferences I've attended recently.

Breakpoint2024, one of the best conferences this year

Key features:

1- Most speakers only have 5 minutes, so they have to get to the point;

2- Debates are added, instead of boring panels;

3- Alternative award sessions, full of community vibe.

Walking into the Solana exhibition hall, you feel like you're in a supermarket, not just an exhibition.

From a project perspective, Jupiter, Pyth, Wormhole, Birdeye, and many other projects have released their new products, with no dull moments throughout.

The conference was divided into two stages, from left to right, from right to left, I've lost count of how many times I've gone back and forth just to not miss important moments.

The first day of the conference was from 10:30 in the morning to 6:00 in the afternoon, thanks to the compact sessions and almost no advertising in the agenda, almost every session was full.

While listening to the sessions, whether it's the full applause for "Firedancer" or the shout of "GO!" for "DeGods", you will find that the Solana community now has an extremely consistent consensus on the big picture.

Everyone knows what the future focus of Solana development is;

Everyone knows which projects in the Solana ecosystem are truly loyal members;

Everyone knows which jokes in the Solana ecosystem only insiders can understand.

Solana being the beta in this cycle should be a consensus for many, non-consensus exists in: many friends feel that after major projects like Pyth, Jupiter, Wormhole, Drift, etc., went live, it seems that there are not as many alpha projects worth looking forward to in the Solana ecosystem.

Actually, it's not the case.

For example, Backpack, Cube, Flashtrade, Sonic, Solayer, ComputeLabs, and many others, the developers on Solana are pouring in, creating more interesting things.

I remember on the technical stage on the right, the host asked how many people were attending Breakpoint for the first time, and almost half of the people raised their hands, with new blood accounting for 50%!

Solana, which has risen from the low point, has become more resilient. Thanks to Solar, I was able to participate in such an event.

Solana is so great to have a community like yours.

Move Series, another alpha outside of Solana

During TOKEN 2049, the sharp rise of Sui also attracted a lot of attention.

Sui Builder House was also one of the hottest events before TOKEN 2049.

In fact, around April this year, I started to discuss SUI with people, mainly based on the logic:

1- Solana's traffic overflow, for developers/speculators who think the Solana ecosystem is saturated, they will look for the next Alpha, in the previous cycle, there were Polygon, Avalanche, etc., and this cycle should be SUI, TON, etc.;

2- The relevance of Move language and RUST, it's not difficult to switch from RUST to Move, so for Solana projects, whether they are squeezed out or want to launch a side project, the Move series is a good choice, such as Solend going to SUI to create Suilend, etc. This applies to SUI, Aptos, Movement, etc.;

3- Recognition from technical friends, currently, Sui, Aptos have launched their tokens on the mainnet, after consulting some technical friends, many people think that Sui's technology and documentation are better.

At that time, there was no so-called grayscale trust and native USDC on Sui, with the blessing of these two, I believe Sui will also develop better.

Overall, I have high expectations for Sui, Aptos, and Movement. As I write this, $APTOS has also risen by 14%.

However, the problem with Sui is that there are indeed too few assets that can be speculated on. Although SuiPlay has been launched and had the largest game booth at KBW in South Korea, the current star projects are still the previous Cetus, Turbos, Navi, Scallop, and including Meme, which can be counted on both hands. I hope that the incubation plan previously carried out by Cetus and Sui will bring out more things.

The problem with Aptos seems to be that the users/community are unsure about the direction the foundation wants to focus on, and it's a bit confusing. Movement is currently the only Move series project that has not launched its token, so I will keep an eye on it and hope to see some star cases soon.

After the rate cut expectations, everyone is much more optimistic

From Japan, South Korea to Singapore, as I am a trading idiot, I can only seize every opportunity to ask my friends about their views on the future market. In general, everyone seems to be more optimistic.

Two or three months ago, most friends still thought the cycle was over, or at most, the bull market would last until Q4 of this year or Q1 of next year.

Now, it seems that the bull market until Q1 of next year is actually a more conservative view, and many people think it could last until Q3 of next year.

The main reason is the start of the rate cut cycle, 50 basis points is just the beginning, it takes time to loosen, and the outflow of assets from the US stock market/BTC has not yet started.

The main uncertainty lies in the November election.

Although some people have said that everyone is here to find liquidity exits, and even some old-timers have expressed great disappointment in the industry, seeing no innovation, and so on.

But my advice is, Let it Go.

Don't just see the pessimistic side, let them leave if they are disappointed.

In fact, there are still many hardworking founders and projects in the industry. It's true that some are actively looking for liquidity exits, some are actively creating memes, and some are actively speculating; but there are also many people who are constantly exploring the direction of the industry's development, constantly trying and finding product-market fit, and there are still founders with tokens ranking very high who are still shuttling around various venues like labor models.

For example, Jambo, from the "African phone" in the previous cycle to selling more than 500,000 units now, covering more than 120 countries, and they also launched JamboPhonev2 a few days ago. Every time I meet with their founder, I can feel their passion for the project.

For example, Solv, from not finding PMF before to embracing the BTC ecosystem now, the resilient team has allowed them to already have $13 billion worth of solvBTC;

For example, Sonic, from initially creating a marketplace for game projects to now building SVM, which has gained great fame;

For example, Matr1x, from launch, to listing, to testing, facing all kinds of doubts, and now officially launching the non-deleting gold farming test.

Every cycle will have people who are pessimistic about the industry, just as every project will go through different frauds.

Whether it's pessimism or fraud,

the industry is always driven by optimists, without fraud, there is no real community.

Let's go all out for the good things!

Captain Jack: The collapse of the primary market faith, but don't leave the table

1. Most panel guests have a pessimistic market outlook, and even worry that if there is no new innovation or growth by May next year, the market ecosystem may undergo a complete reshuffle;

2. Lack of innovation, concentration of stock to the top, the weighted ranking of top 15 coins by user count and market value, such as doge, shib, has dropped by 70-80% from the peak, and others are even worse. (Based on the data I've seen, I guess the trading volume on exchanges may have decreased by 80% this year);

3. Decentralized stablecoins and payment applications, two infrastructure constructions, are clearly incremental tracks;

4. The collapse of faith in the primary market, making money from primary market projects in the past 2 years is rare;

5. It's not easy to make money in the primary market, professional financial institutions are rolling into the secondary market, Li Lin has put out $500 million to play in the secondary quantitative mother fund, quantification is entering the market;

6. Currently, we feel that there are no more than 10 institutions with stable secondary quantitative capabilities;

7. Retail investors are resisting quantification, the strategy is to buy and hold the top 5 large coins and reduce trading, endure;

8. Retail investors, buy & hold, exchange trading volume will decrease, AUM will also decrease, exchanges are in a tough spot;

9. Second-tier exchanges are starting to aggressively market, participating in Bitget, XT events, going overseas with Gate friends, seeing BingX, Weex marketing… So, the marketing costs of exchanges will increase;

10. The Ton ecosystem exchange, the Solana ecosystem, seem to have some structural trading opportunities;

11. As a veteran who entered the internet industry in 2003, although I see problems, compared to the internet in 2000, the number of practitioners, skills, infrastructure, user base, industry total & growth space in segmented areas, there is still a lot of room for growth. So, don't leave the table.

Little Crow (Editor-in-Chief of Crypto City): Rich exhibitions and events, but still lacking innovation

According to official statistics, this TOKEN2049 event had a total of over 400 speeches, 700 side events, and as many as 200,000 participants. After this event, there were also follow-up events such as the F1 race and Solana Breakpoint, which led to a sharp increase in accommodation costs in Singapore, long queues, and even traffic jams near Marina Bay Sands. The evaluation of this event is actually very polarized:

From a purely observational perspective, this event should be very fulfilling, and you can meet many people here that you wouldn't meet in Taiwan.

But in terms of industry innovation, to be honest, it's very disappointing because most of the narrative content is almost the same as in the past few years, so many developers have told me that they find it quite boring.

From the booth, the main focus is on crypto payments, AI, and DePIN. There are also several vendors specializing in sports, fan economy, and RWA, as well as many vendors focusing on compliance. Some projects were even established only a few months ago and came to TOKEN2049 to promote themselves.

After walking around, my colleagues also asked me why TON was heavily promoted in Taiwan, but there were hardly any TON ecosystem projects and promotions at TOKEN2049 (the most obvious one should be Catizen).

My simple guess is that TON's extensive promotion in Asia, even in Taiwan, is mostly the result of media hype, combined with the project's matrix system with KOLs, which has led to many people experiencing the TON ecosystem. Later, at the Side Event, I asked some foreign participants about their views on TON, and many of them were either observing or indifferent, and one radical foreigner even directly told me, "I Don't Fucking Care about TON!", which also confirmed my guess.

Regarding the pricing of TOKEN2049, it was not originally set to attract retail investors, so most of the attendees in the main venue are industry professionals, roughly divided into several categories: capital, exchanges, VCs, project teams, KOLs (with scale), and media. Due to the poor market and liquidity over the past year, most people at the main venue are there for business discussions, so it doesn't really make much sense for regular users to come in. As for why there were so many Side Events this time, it's also easy to understand. If project teams don't hold events, it's basically difficult to attract funds, users, or even more cooperation opportunities, so many project teams are pushing through, just to have more "deal" opportunities.

Theo (Founder of 3rdStCapital): Infrastructure valuation is still high

1. Everyone is bullish on AI x cryptocurrency and looking for excellent teams to invest in;
2. Many teams are working on the next pump.fun;
3. Most on-chain participants I met are tired of memes and are more focused on practicality;
4. Teams are interested in MemeFi but don't want to damage their brand. Therefore, most teams do not intend to establish their own;
5. Currently, there aren't many good projects to invest in, and many teams are developing iterations of the same things or already listed products;
6. Peripheral products launched by projects are also under strict scrutiny, and people joke that due to the poor quality of peripheral products, the situation of the teams may be very bad, and the teams should really pay attention to the details at these events;
7. Many teams are not qualified to hold events, and their event content is empty;
8. There are many Side Events, and attendees will evaluate you based on these events. Some teams performed poorly at the events, leaving a bad impression, but I won't name them, because some of these projects are invested in by friends, etc.;
9. Infrastructure valuation is still high, while ecosystem-level valuation is relatively low;
10. Startups are currently struggling to raise funds, and VCs are not very interested. Many of them are surprised that we are still actively investing;
11. Extremely bullish on Solana, SUI held a grand gathering, and the price movement of ETH makes everyone uneasy.

Degentrading (KOL): Most projects are boring, just burning VC money

1. I spent 99% of my time on one-on-one communication, which is more effective than any event;
2. Among all the events, the bittensor asia meetup is the best so far. I saw real builders on $TAO, which strengthened my belief that this is the AI coin of this cycle;
3. Most projects are boring/uninteresting/just burning VC money. If we don't have funds flowing in… founders will leave, tokens may die… If we do get funds flowing in, I guess they will be okay for a while? I don't know, but I won't buy these coins anyway;
4. Except for funds that can also trade cryptocurrency-related stocks, most liquidity funds are not performing as well as Bitcoin;
5. Many VCs are indeed idiots;
6. Despite some projects having huge marketing budgets, people's emotions are very low, which actually reminds me of some pyramid schemes;
7. About $SOL (Solana): I have to say, I really admire the Solana ecosystem. Although I'm not sure if it can surpass Ethereum, I think Solana now has a great chance to survive the token unlocking pressure brought by FTX… The opinion leaders of Ethereum seem to have disconnected from the masses (maybe because they are too rich? Who knows, but this is not good). How much faster is Solana's progress compared to Ethereum? Five times?
8. About decentralized perpetual contract exchanges: These exchanges have recently been neglected, and I think they will regain popularity after Hyperliquid goes live;
9. About $LDO (Lido): It may have reached the emotional low point, and no one hates it anymore… no one cares. As a bull, I think this is actually good, it can't get any worse, right?

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