9 visual charts to help you understand the real L2 situation

In short, ZK Rollup still has a long way to go before it can be widely applied.

Translation: DeepTechFlow

The red market is the ultimate test of the protocol, revealing the true distribution of users.

This is my in-depth research on the status of Ethereum L2, with rich visual effects and on-chain data analysis.

Since 2023, Ethereum L2 has risen rapidly, with @l2beat currently tracking data for 74 L2 and 30 L3.

However, only a few general Rollups have gained widespread attention, attracting a large amount of TVL and users. This study focuses on the nine largest Rollups.

Market value: Circulating market value and fully diluted market value

Currently, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of most L2s has reached tens of billions of dollars, but their circulating market value is less than 1 billion dollars, indicating that most tokens have not yet entered the market circulation.

The only exception is @0xMantle, with 52% of its supply already unlocked, making it the only L2 with a circulating market value exceeding 10 billion dollars.

High FDV and low circulation are among the main reasons why many recent airdrops have failed to meet user expectations.

Assessing the current valuation is challenging, and there is uncertainty about potential downward trends in the future.

Total Value Locked (TVL)

In terms of TVL, all chains except those with continuous incentive programs like @Scroll_ZKP, @LineaBuild, and @0xMantle have experienced a difficult summer.

However, compared to Scroll's newly launched plan, Linea's airdrop plan, which has been ongoing for nearly a year, has seen a decrease in attention within the community.

Among the underperforming chains, @zksync and @blast have been most affected, as these two chains issued their tokens this year, leading to liquidity moving to more attractive places.

Fees and transaction activity

Since Dencun, DA no longer significantly drives the economy of ETH, which has had an impact on Ethereum and L2 fees. Therefore, analyzing fee dynamics and transaction activity is particularly important.

In this regard, due to speculative activity, @base is seen as the primary destination for new memecoin launches on Ethereum L2, showing strong appeal and sustained growth in transaction volume.

In contrast, despite LineaBuild's continuous incentive program, the performance of @zksync and @LineaBuild has been less than satisfactory.

Monthly Active Users (MAU)

The change in MAU is an important indicator for evaluating user retention on the chain, showing similar trends.

@0xMantle and @base have performed well, while @StarknetFndn, @zksync, and @blast have underperformed.

By comparing MAU data with fully diluted valuation (FDV), it is clear that Starknet is significantly overvalued compared to Arbitrum, Optimism, and even ZKsync.

Bridge Inflows and Outflows

Net bridge flow is an important indicator for measuring the influx of new users and capital.

In L2, the positive net flow includes @Arbitrum, @StarknetFndn, @Optimism, @base, and @0xMantle, with @0xMantle having the largest difference between inflow and outflow.

In contrast, @LineaBuild, @zksync, and @blast have shown negative net flows.

Developer Activity

Finally, developer activity is measured by core development projects and the number of code commits. These data help evaluate the current productivity of the team and identify any personnel reductions.

Most surprisingly, @blast currently has over 300 core developers (compared to the usual 30-50 for most L2s). This large team has also contributed a significant amount of code commits.

What exactly they are doing? That remains to be seen.

If you want to delve deeper into the impact of airdrop activities on various indicators of Ethereum L2, you can check out my article "The State of Ethereum Rollups" on Substack here.

This article summarizes my research findings and expresses my personal views on the power distribution of Ethereum Rollups.

In short: ZK Rollup still has a long way to go before it can be widely applied (which is regrettable).

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