The real bull market may not have arrived yet.

By: NingNing

The Bitcoin on-chain Tx Volume chart in the latest Glassnode weekly report is quite confusing. The structure of the Tx Volume 30-day SMA from October 23 to the present is very similar to that from October 20 to September 21, which may lead some in the market to conclude that "we are already in a super bull market and the bull market is already halfway through."

The confusion in this chart lies in the fact that the structure of the Tx Volume used for comparison has undergone a huge change. The Taproot Witness TX related to inscriptions and runes has grown rapidly from 23 to the present, peaking at 41.8% of the Tx Volume, which was not present in the previous cycle.

This can also be verified from the chart showing the change in Bitcoin miner fees. Excluding the prosperity period of inscriptions/runes, the base scale of miner fees from 23 to the present cannot be compared to the bull market from March 20 to July 21, only slightly higher than the bear market period in 22.

Therefore, the so-called "bull market" from October 23 to March 24 that we have experienced is not a real super bull market, but rather a combination of two seasonal markets (one autumn market + one spring market) and the frenzy of new asset issuance.

The trend of the change in spot trading volume on exchanges from November 22 to the present also proves this point. As shown in the chart, there is only seasonal fluctuation, with no upward trend.

In summary, the myth of "halving brings a bull market, and a bull market occurs every 4 years" has been debunked this year. The reason for this myth is that the Bitcoin halving cycle has always coincided highly with the Federal Reserve's monetary cycle, as Bitcoin was born in the era of the subprime mortgage crisis, and every 4 years of halving coincided with the end of the Fed's rate cut cycle and the recovery period of the Merrill Lynch clock.

However, this time, due to the delay of the Federal Reserve's monetary cycle by a year, although 24 is a halving year, there is only a seasonal market and no super bull market. Nevertheless, there is no need to be pessimistic, as the absence of a super bull market in 24 means that the super bull market will arrive from 25 to 26.

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