To achieve a break-even point, the price of FB must be at least $10.

By Golem, Odaily Star Daily

At 8 o'clock this morning, the highly anticipated Fractal mainnet finally went live. Fractal adopts a unique mining mechanism called "Cadence Mining", where two out of every three blocks mined will be exempt from permission and the remaining block will be merged mined. This mechanism has given rise to many Fractal ecosystem mining projects and has also sparked enthusiasm among users to lease computing power to participate in mining.

Therefore, due to vested interests, mainnet mining output and FB price have become the focus of community attention. Although the off-exchange price of FB has risen to around 19 USDT, many community members have expressed concerns that leasing computing power to participate in mining may not be profitable.

Is this really the case? Is the participation of ordinary users in Fractal mining a prelude to "eating meat" or "cutting meat"? Odaily Star Daily will briefly analyze the mining output and returns of Fractal in this article, hoping to provide readers with a reference.

Mining cost and return estimation

According to data from the Fractal block explorer, the current combined mining power of Fractal is about 90 EH/s, and the exempt mining power is 10,000 PH/s (1 EH/s = 1000 PH/s).

It is known that the rental price of 1 PH/s of computing power on the market is between 3000-5000 USDT per month. Even at the lowest rental cost, based on the price of FB at 19 USDT, a daily output of 5.26 FB achieves a break-even point.

The widely used mining output calculation method in the community is as follows:

Based on an average block time of 30 seconds and two-thirds of the output being exempt from permission, the daily output is approximately 72,000 FB, with about 48,000 FB obtained from exempt mining. Therefore, 1 PH/s of computing power can obtain approximately 4.8 FB per day, and based on the off-exchange price of FB at 19 USDT, miners can earn approximately 91.2 USDT per day.

If estimated using this method, leasing computing power to mine FB is not only unprofitable, but as the overall exempt mining power increases, the rewards allocated to each 1 PH/s will continue to decrease, leading to greater losses.

A more dynamic calculation method:

The above calculation method is based on the assumption of continuously increasing computing power and constant daily output. However, in reality, although the average block time of the Fractal mainnet is set at 30 seconds, the daily output is significantly faster than expected.

As shown in the figure below, the Fractal mainnet mined over 2500 blocks in just 10 hours, producing over 62,500 FB. This means that in reality, with the increase in computing power, the block mining speed is also accelerating. The actual daily output will exceed the previously estimated 72,000 FB.

Therefore, the average block time during the mainnet mining period is approximately 10 to 15 seconds, meaning that the daily FB output today may be between 140,000 and 210,000. Even with the most conservative estimate of 140,000 FB output, of which two-thirds are exempt from permission, i.e., 93,000 FB, 1 PH/s of computing power can obtain approximately 10.3 FB today. Based on the off-exchange price of FB at 19 USDT, miners can earn approximately 195.7 USDT per day.

If estimated using this method, as long as the FB price remains above 10 USDT, players leasing computing power to mine FB can still be profitable.

However, this calculation method is only relatively dynamic. Changes in overall computing power, daily output, and FB price will all affect mining output and returns. Ultimately, whether Fractal mining is worth long-term participation will need to be reassessed after the network stabilizes.

Fractal still faces challenges

In addition to the widespread discussion on mining returns following the launch of the Fractal mainnet today, there are still some doubts about its network.

The founder of mempool posted on X platform that Fractal Bitcoin seems to be a "clone" copy of Bitcoin Core v2 4.0.1, with the premined tokens accounting for 50% of the fully diluted supply of Fractal Bitcoin. Miners will need a full two years (one Fractal Bitcoin halving interval) to earn half of the rewards obtained by the founders on the first day. Additionally, Fractal Bitcoin has many meaningless technical terms that only exist in the white paper, so in his view, it is just another "shitfork" of Bitcoin.

There have also been issues with nodes and long periods without block production in the network, but the team's response speed has been relatively fast, promptly fixing node behavior and quickly providing a new node version.

At the current off-exchange price of 19 USDT, the market value of FB has already approached 4 billion US dollars. Although FB can now be transferred through the Fractal mainnet, there are currently no DEC/CEX platforms listing FB tokens, and users' trading activities still rely on off-exchange OTC, resulting in low trading efficiency and opacity, casting "a layer of uncertainty" over the future price trend of FB.

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